DeAndre Hopkins - Houston's first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft

My thoughts on the pick, as just a guy on the internet who didn't work out anybody nor works professionally as a scout or coach:

I'll say that I have questions/doubts about the pick, but will stop well short of saying I don't like it and even further away from calling it a bad pick. I hope it works out. My concern is less about Hopkins and more about who we could have picked instead. Did we go BPA or did we got sucked into drafting for need?

I'm clearly biased - while I've been calling for WR help for years, I've been banging the NT drum all spring. Poor play in the middle of the line took out our pass rush like popping a balloon last season, Cody's gone, and Mitchell is not up to snuff as a starter. Sylvester Williams was supposed to be gone several picks before us, but dropped into our laps and we passed.

-->Being fair: a LOT of interior D-Linemen are still out there to be had, and Hopkins is higher quality than the guys I expected to be left at #27 (Justin Hunter).

I like Hopkins for our team more than Patterson - I don't think the speed is a critical concern (Andre has never been the fastest guy in the league himself) and got the spooks when I saw that Patterson catches the ball with his body out of habit. Hopkins looks to have fantastic hands, concentration, and feel for the game. I don't know about his ability to separate, but Kubiak's system, when working, takes that off the receiver's shoulders.

I do question if Hopkins is going to be a 1a (Roddy White, Dez Bryant, etc), or if he's only going to be a very good #2. Just like I wasn't keen on burning a first on a ILB that wasn't going to play every snap, I hope we didn't pick a limited use #2 WR instead of an impact guy. I don't know who Hopkins will be, I absolutely hope it'll be an heir apparent.

This was a very interesting first round, and should be equally interesting in the second. You don't have your normal, clear slope of players. You've got Dallas' mindboggling pick of a third round projection and Geno Smith going untouched while the Bills take EJ Manuel instead (whom folks here wanted the Texans to take in rd 3 or 4). Ogletree picked, Minter still available. I think it's fair to say there's not a real consensus about this class, and that there's real first round talent available tonight.

I'm personally filing the Hopkins pick under wait and see. I think they took the best WR for the team when they could, but I'm unsure if they took a "game changer" and I'm unsure if they took BPA. I'm extremely interested to see who they get tonight, and if they try to trade up at all.

Guys I'd be most excited about that still remain (~ top 30 available, not ranked, may or may not be realistic):

Arthur Brown
Jonathan Cyprien
Margus Hunt
Zach Ertz
Jonathan Hankins
Bennie Logan
B.W. Webb

 

Keyshawn ran a 4.45. I've seen conflicting reports on Posey. Some saying he ran a 4.37 or 4.39. Others saying he ran a 4.50.

Andre ran a 4.41.

 

I don't think they went BPA at all, but they went BPA at a position they had to fill. #2 WR is not an occasional starter like the second ILB, he's on the field on almost every offensive play. They literally do not have an NFL caliber WR on the roster outside of Andre right now. They had to draft one that could come in and start. Had to.

As for DT, while I agree with your position on the position, the Texans don't. They like Earl Mitchell and they don't value the NT position that much because NT is less of a starter on this team than nickel CB.

 

Since 2009, here are the first round WRs with similar TD totals their final year of college:
Crabtree - 19
Blackmon - 18
Megatron - 15
K. Wright - 14
Maclin - 13
Nicks - 12
(* Dez Bryant had 19 his last *full* season)

Not even remotely definitive - but pretty good company, nonetheless. Missing are AJ Green (9), Julio Jones (7) and Demaryus Thomas (8) - so it's obviously not wholly predictive, as those are terrific WRs.

BTW, pretty good reason Mayock cites Roddy White as his NFL comparison; check out their final college season stats:

White: 71 rec., 1,452 yards (20.5), 14 TDs
Hopkins: 82 rec., 1.405 (17.1), 18 TDs

 

By the way, this is where my comment from yesterday about them being bad at drafting comes from. They aren't bad in the sense that they don't hit on picks. They obviously do, but they aren't good at using the draft to find players who can step in and fill out the roster.

 

I'm also guessing they think Cushing will correct a lot of the issues with our up-the-middle defense.

 

I heard one of the talking heads say Hopkins had been working with AJ80, and that Andre was very high on this pick. That's a good enough endorsement for me.

 

Sure. I can't remember the numbers but Charlie and Lance have run through the stats and I think the DT is on the field for the Texans at the same rate as a fullback. I could be wrong, but I think it was something like 30% of defensive snaps.

 

30% sounds about right. It's a valid point, sheds light on how we might value NT. Then again, if we had a dynamic, disruptive NT you'd imagine Wade would find a way to get him on the field.

 

True.

I want to see the Keo/Pleasant snap % vs the Cody/Mitchell %.

 

I'm normally a BPA believer but when you have a good team with a window you can only NOT address a glaring need for so long. Very happy with this pick. Crazy draft, no RB for the first time since '63, all the linemen...definitely thought Hopkins would be gone. Think of it this way, Boyd was such a great qe that he went back to school in a terrible qb draft year. What does tha tell you? Hopkins can find space and then turn upfield, he can catch the ball under pressure, and he can also get separation (as sited more from a "quick" move than flat speed). Plenty of film of Boyd making Hopkins wait for the ball when he's open deep, so he should be on Schaubs page from the start.

 

Patterson has amazing upside and great potential but he's definitely not ready to step in and play immediately (which is what we need right now). I know this may not hurt him much as far as promise goes but his Wunderlich scores were also pretty damn low even for a WR.

Hopkins has typically the same skillset as Roddy and ironically was picked in the exact same slot (27th). He has great route running ability even as a rookie and impecable hands to boot. The great thing about that is he really doesn't have to rely on break away speed to get open and in our offense that's a natural fit.

 

I remember reading yesterday that either Mitchell or Cody was on the field for 60% of the defensive snaps.

EDIT:
http://www.houstontexans.com/news/a...wn-needs/74df829d-f4c6-4e28-a2ce-aa754bb810f7

But I guess the 30% DT number refers to when we use 4 down linemen in nickel and dime packages. DT vs NT. NT = 60%, DT = 30%.

 

even if its 60%,30%,10% you need a legit NT in this system. Keeps OG honest and eliminates the triple teams on JJ

 

Banks 2nd rd mock for us:

57. Houston
Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Mississippi -- Because Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips likes to collect outside linebackers with some edge pass rush skills.
58. Denver
David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State -- The Broncos need to be looking for secondary help and possibly Champ Bailey's eventual replacement in round two.
59. New England
Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech -- The Patriots have been searching for more vertical threat at receiver since Randy Moss left town.
60. Atlanta
Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State -- The Falcons considered making a move up in the first round for Tyler Eifert, but deemed it too costly. But they can sit tight and get Tony Gonzalez's heir apparent near the bottom of the second round.
61. San Francisco
Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU -- I'm really not sure Mathieu is capable of cracking the second round, with all that baggage. But the 49ers still have a surplus of picks, a need to continue the upgrade in the secondary, and the belief that their coaching and team mentality can keep players focused on the task at hand. Plus, Jim Harbaugh loves a challenge.



Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/-nfl-draft/news/20130426/2013-nfl-draft-second-round/#ixzz2RaeclNUJ

 

Agreed - it was sad watching how effectively teams negated our pass rush by throwing Cody/Mitchell to the side and turning the pocket into a wide open QB freeway.

I'd be interested to see the number for 2011 as well. It seemed to me that post-Cushing, Wade utilized a 4-2-5 nickel more than he previously had in passing downs. With one-man-show Cushing around, he favored a 5-1-5 package that was unstoppable.

Phillips is often quoted for saying he likes the smaller DT types instead of traditional 2-gap NTs because he values penetration. It's his scheme to leave his fake-nose in there on all downs because he wants a guy that can play one-gap and help the pass rush. He doesn't (traditionally) consider it a 2-down position like he does his Will.

Cody was fine against the run, but didn't do much upstream. Mitchell can penetrate, but he's a lightweight that can be tossed. Teams can double team Watt all day since a guard or center can handle our nose with no sweat. Bring in an impact interior guy like Jonathan Hankins, and he'll make a substantial difference.

But as mentioned, Wade is most likely much more interested in new linebackers and doesn't consider nose a priority.

 

DeAndre Hopkins:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/HRx49-leiRE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

He was cleared. Can we put this **** **** to rest?