As much as i hate to say it, dalass should win this series. If they dont it will be a big dissapointment on thier part. When the Mavs go small they will create huge foul problems for every heat player not named wade. Dallas is too deep and wade will have his, shaq will have his somewhat, but the mavs have too many weapons. They heat will try to play a physical game, but against the Mavs it least to foul trouble. Wade will have to elevate his game for the heat to have a good chance.
If dallas goes small though, the Heat will be able to hurt them moreso than any other team they have faced by going big and slowing down the pace of the game. Riley is very deliberate about playing halfcourt basketball and if Shaq and haslem/walker can get going then that will force Dallas go big again. Dallas can't start out small, that would be just suicide asking nowitizi to guard Shaq. They will at least have Dampier/Diop and Nowitzi at the PF position so the advantage already plays towards the Heat. It's just up to them to take advantage of that mismatch. Spurs are a better TEAM than the heat but they didn't have the power forward that could hurt the Mavs which forced them to play to dalla's game. The x factor for the Heat I believe will be the defense of Haslem and the offense of Walker. Wade and Shaq will get theirs.
Dallas is in troube going "small" in both ways they commonly like too. If they go small in the bigs--shooters to spread the floor--who is going to guard Shaq or even Zo?--Dirk, Howard, Keith Van Horn? Ouch that is going to hurt on defense. Further, if they try to go small-quick with the guards--Terry & Harris in at the same time, who among Wade or Walker is one of these guys have to guard. Wade is a LOT stronger and bigger than Terry and Harris (and don't bring up Hinrich/Gordon analogy, they are bigger, stronger and better individual defenders), Dallas is a lot better off with Howard, Daniels, Griffin, maybe even Stack, playing him. I suppose it might work if one them plays Posey, but neither could handle Walker, that is for sure. Dallas' versality and ability to play small (quick or shooter line up) really worked for them so far. But Wade and Shaq are completely different challenges. For the most part they are going to need Diop or Damp in there and good sized swingman with quickness on Wade to try to slow Miami's offense whatsoever. That is why I saw Howard and Diop are absolutely the key players holding Dallas's hopes. Both have played very well at times (Howard most of the time), but neither have faced the this kind of challenge, we will see.
for some reason, i think terry/harris or walker/payton are going to choke. and who ever choes out of those 4 their team is going to lose.
Hate to be saying "I have told you so!" Dallas with Dirk/Howard playing poor game still was way too much for Heat to handle. Look for Dirk/Howard to bounce back in Game 2. Dallas will probably win by 20.
