I ended up with: Westbrook Burks Casspi Favors Dwight Rondo Sefolosha Lavine Burks and Favors were busts but I have an outside shot of cashing in a gpp because Lavine went off Edit: The Rondo steal on the very last play put me at 4534 and I needed to be in the top 4600. Ended up with 270 points
GPP Lineup: Kirk Cousins Doug Martin Darren McFadden Jordan Matthews Alshon Jeffery Demaryius Thomas Jordan Reed DeMarco Murray Eagles Cash Lineup: Blake Bortles Mark Ingram Darren McFadden Randall Cobb Stefon Diggs Allen Robinson Jordan Reed DeAngelo Williams Broncos EDIT: Vegas predicts 4 teams to score 4+ TDs…Packers, Patriots, Eagles, and Bengals. For the GPP, I chose to take 2 Eagles players because of this. Maybe they can do well and I will get that advantage.
Posted my week 10 thoughts on blog last night. Had to work long hours Friday / Saturday so apologize for not breaking everything down as fully this week. Just basically ran through the guys I like. I think New Orleans / Washington is a trap game for DFS this week. Jordan Reed is about the only player I like there. Ingram probably scores twice today that stupid *******.
Going with Cousins for the GPP def makes me nervous, but its a $3 league and Im not interested in doubling up…so I need to do something different. My aim is 200 total points for my lineup, so that would mean Kirk needs to hit 20.8 points to reach value. Vegas predicts about 24.5 points from the Redskins…let's say 3 TDs. I'd like to assume at least 2 of them come from Cousins. Im going to go with the stat line of 280 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 yards rushing. If he achieves that, which against the Saints defense shouldn't be that out of reach, then it'll be good for 20.2 points. If he can eclipse the 300 yard passing mark, then we are talking about at least 23 points from Captain Kirk, which will put me in a good spot. Of course, he could end up completely bombing, but Im trying to be contrarian here. As far as other players and my reasoning… Doug Martin had a terrible game last week. The Cowboys have given up the most DK points to opposing RBs than any other team this season. Im hoping for a big bounce back (and thus, throwing him into GPP). Mark Ingram had a bust of a game last week relative to expectations. However, it wasn't because he was short on touches (he had 26)…he just didn't have things go his way when it mattered (Saints opting to QB sneak Brees on the 1 yard line). He's heavily involved in the offense and Brees is clicking right now. Vegas predicts the Saints to hit about 26 points, so almost at the 4 TD mark. At least 1 of them has to go Ingram's way, I would think. I don't have DK numbers, but on FanDuel, the highest owned receivers are Robinson, Crabtree, Cobb, Edelman, Diggs, and AJ Green. Assuming the numbers aren't significantly different, I rolled with 3 of these guys for my Cash leagues…and avoided all of these guys in my GPP. The Eagles came out of their bye week and Jordan Matthews came away with 31 DK points against a team that has done very well against opposing receivers this season. Matthews has a very low ownership on FanDuel…and since Vegas predicts at least 4 TDs for the Eagles, Im hoping that maybe Bradford has figured out that he needs to target Matthews as much as he can. I want 7 catches, 100 yards, and a TD. That'll be 26 points (24.8 needed to reach value). I have McFadden and Reed in both GPP and Cash. McFadden's price at $4900 is too difficult to pass up. If Im aiming for 200 points, that means I need Darren to give me 19.6…which roughly amounts to 80 yards rushing, a few catches, and a TD. As far as Reed is concerned, he's got a great matchup…and there are 9 TE that are more expensive than him. Great value with great potential. Can't pass up that combo. A good measuring stick here is how he fared against Tampa a couple weeks ago…11 catches and 2 TDs. If he can pull of 8 catches and 1 TD, then he has far surpassed value for me. Therefore, he gets the nod in cash and GPP leagues.
I know Arob is chalk this week, but as I say, sometimes the chalk play is the right play. Antonio Brown, Crabtree last week prove that. I don't think it is smart to fade a player strictly because they are chalk. You can buy into the chalk in at least 2 places and look for variance elsewhere. Also, I'm hearing that there is a storm system in Oakland moving through right now. They are expecting heavy wind gusts maybe up to 40 MPH during the game. I'm kind of thinking this limits the passing game so I'm moving toward a total fade of offensive players there, maybe you could go to Peterson or Murray. Really like Diggs, and I think he's still safer in cash, but in a GPP these windy conditions may limit his upside. I'm thinking you can easily switch over to Travis Benjamin in place of Diggs. Similar pricing, and with Manziel starting you definitely look at T-Benj as a potential to get you a nice payday. I'm with you on the Eagles rolling Miami today, but I'm honestly more on the run game there. I think they smash-mouth all day with DeMarco seeing 100+ and 1 TD. I think DeMarco has the safest floor of any RB today, and his ceiling is also going to be huge. He's a no-brainer for me in cash and in GPPs today. **** me, I'm going back to Ingram. I don't know why I'm torturing myself, but I just can't ignore the opportunities he's getting. Brees has been on fire lately, but they still have to ride that horse. Please get in the end zone today Ingram. You stupid b*stard. If you're going for a 200 point ceiling, then I think Cousins/Reed is a solid foundation. I'm just not buying into the hype on this one like most people. I think Saints players and anyone facing the Saints will be big time chalk for the most part and you'll see people reaching for guys like DeSean Jackson. I do think Cousins has a very nice floor for his price in this one, but I'm always looking for high ceiling / high floors on GPPs, because I'm gunning for #1 every time. 200 points is nice, but you're basically aiming for a cash score with a much tougher field, so I don't think your strategy really makes sense. If you're looking to build a high floor, then why don't you just stick to cash games where you have a to hit top 45% instead of top 20%?
I'm going with Bortles Gurley Ingram Cobb Robinson Diggs Reed Blount Eagles I've been switching back and forth between Blount, Starks, and McFadden so I'm not sure who I'll end up with there.
Cousins racked up 34 points against Tampa…and Bortles did 32 against the Bucs (both their season highs). The Saints could bring about similar results. I think Bortles is definitely the more consistent/steady option…but I wouldn't necessarily say someone like Bortles has a higher ceiling than Cousins. I think Bortles having better receiving options makes him a safer bet…but purely upside, I wouldn't say it's that much of an edge. Im more worried about Cousins' floor because I don't want him to bomb out.
Yep saw that. What are your thoughts about having a wr and rb from the same team? I'll probably have Cobb and Starks, since I don't really want to move off Cobb.
Its kind of negative correlation play in terms of production, but in this case I think you can do it because the Packers are expected to roast, which means Cobb could light it up early and then Starks will get a lot of carries once they are in control.
DeMaryius for me, especially if Sanders is out. I think Houston is actually better at scheming versus WR1s than most people think. They usually get roasted by secondary options.
I think AJ will be productive, but I think they will roam over on him and Dalton will find Eifert, Jones, etc a lot. I also think Hill and Bernard will both be good fantasy options tomorrow night. Probably too much of a time-share for one guy to make big, but I think they both have good value.
Wind scared me off of Diggs so I had to reshuffle. Ended up with Bortles Gurley Ingram Demaryius Robinson LaFell Reed Starks Eagles
Close to mine. I got: fanduel: Bortles Gurley Williams Robinson Adams Crabtree Reed Panthers Tucker not looking that great right now...
Two weeks in a row that DT and Ingram have failed to deliver for me. And Cobb got me this week as well. Not a good week.
