Had my first NBA fanduel lineup last night, just a $2 50/50 league to test the waters. Really enjoyed it as opposed to NFL which can be so hard to predict. Ended up with 288 pts, 22/100. Lawson, G.Hill, Bledsoe, Fournier, LeBron, Iggy, Millsap, Scola, Horford As far as NFL goes, it definitely has gotten much more difficult as opposed to two years ago. You have to balance between going with the crowd and picking the predictable big scorers (like Freeman will be this week) to keep up and then sprinkling in a couple of lesser owned players that produce, and that doesn't always mean finding a cheap bargain play either - sometimes it's taking a chance on a guy that has a slightly unfavorable matchup and you just get a little lucky.
For 50/50s and double ups, best to go with chalky players so you can rise and fall with the majority of the league. The last thing you want is to avoid a 65% owned player, only to have that guy go off for 120 yards rushing and 2 TDs. You're facing a huge uphill battle at that point just to get in the money. For GPPs, you want to go as contrarian as possible. I forgot the exact numbers, but the guy who won the $1 million on NFL draft kings last week...I believe other than 1 or 2 roster spots, his team was comprised of people that were owned at 6% or less. Since I do mostly (90-95%) 50/50 or double ups, I roll with the majority chalk players…then sprinkle in my high value guys to round it out.
Yeah, If you're not rolling with Gurley in a cash game you're pretty much ****ed. But even in a GPP you almost have to play him as well. My GPP formula for NFL is simple. Chalk where you have to chalk, stack QB/WR or sometimes QB/TE and then stack RB/D (Rams, Gurley usually, but Freeman/Falcons is probably going to be nice this week). So for instance you could go: QB: Winston RB: Freeman RB: Langford WR: Julio WR: Antonio Brown WR: Malcolm Floyd FLEX: Allen Hurns TE: ASJ D: Falcons Hurns is a logical play with Revis on ARob. You get a great Julio/Brown combo at WR. Then you stack Winston/ASJ and Freeman/Falcons D. Julio/Freeman/ATL D is a bit of a negative correlation, but you usually can ignore that with teams with high volume WRs and RBs. Atlanta is probably the only team left you can feel comfortable about doing that with Le'Veon now out.
MOTHER****ER. Mike Conley you piece of ****. I needed 13.25 points from you to cash and I what did I get? 13.
I got rocked last night...not a good night from me and I should have just stayed away because I didnt like what was on the slate to begin with. I won 1 out of 4 last night. And the one I won was a H2H against a guy that barely put up 200 points...not because I did anything good on my end. It's funny, I only play with a few bucks a night, but a loss is a major kick in my nuts for some reason. It demolishes my ego.
I was feeling really good about my lineup when I went to bed. Rodney Hood rebounded to actually put up something after going goose egg in the first half. I was sitting pretty highly up and only needed a below average night from Conley to withstand the Lillard guys. Well, that backfired big time. Conley was absolute trash and Dame killed it. I can stomach a loss, but losing by .25 is a special kind of suck. I'm turning away from NBA for the time being and hoping to hit big this weekend in the NFL after getting rocked last week due to injuries.
rez - I have posted my thoughts on QB/RB/WR so far on my blog. What are your thoughts on Week 9? Am I crazy to consider a Rodgers/Cobb stack for GPPs? I'm not the only one who's thought of it. Adam Levitan suggested the same thing on his DK breakdown.
There are so many different combos to go with this week, it's insane. And, tons of great stack options. I think in GPPs, Rodgers/Cobb is smart, because I think the majority of people will go with a different stack (Ben/Brown, Cutler/Alshon, Rivers/WR/Gates, Eli/ODB, etc…). People are forgetting about Rodgers because of last week against Denver…which is pretty much exactly what you would want. Cobb was targeted 9 times against the Broncos….I would expect that number to be 11 or 12 this week, since Rodgers will have time to think before getting his ass handed to him. I don't have the numbers in front of me now, but if the cost is right, then give it a shot. There are solid "cheap" options this week so you can round out the lineup very nicely. If Rodgers can have a 3+ TD game, you'll be sitting pretty. And I would think, after last week, Rodgers is going to come out firing.
I think the Pack will have to move the ball through the air, and with Norman shutting down the outside, Cobb will be able to feast in the slot most of the day. Carolina is also coming off a short week after a long hard-fought win on Monday Night. I am hoping Rodgers/Cobb yields 60 points. I kind of like Freeman this week and I kind of don't. I don't like Julio or ODB as much as I like Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. Then there are like 6 good TE plays this week. Half of them are going to bust. Ugh. So many damn variables and things to consider.
Yeah, it's overwhelming to think about all the possibilities. I need 30 lineups to feel like I have everything covered.
I don't think variance is the way to go. I follow JMtoWin from rotogrinders (He finished 12th in Millionaire Maker 3 weeks ago) and he is very adamant that your best lineup should be your only lineup. He does throw out a couple varients in big GPPs like Milly Maker, but for cash he recommends you stick to your guns for the most part. I find it really hard to restrain myself, but unfortunately I don't really have the bankroll to be putting up 20-30 lineups.
I think a sneaky play this week could be Antonio Andrews. Mularkey will be running quite a bit and has said that Andrews is going to be the workhorse. At $4,400, that could be a good play. I made one lineup with the following: QB - Rodgers RB - Langford RB - Andrews WR - Antonio Brown WR - Julio Jones WR - ODB TE - Heath Miller Flex - ASJ Def - Broncos I have money left over…problem is, that I think Demaryius is actually a better play…but I hate leaving so much money on the table. I could add DT and go from Rodgers to Brady. But then Im worried about Belichick pulling Blount out of his ass again, giving him the rock over having Brady go off for 4 TDs. If Langford and Andrews can reel in 20+ points, everyone else in the lineup has big potential to kill it.
Dude, the optimal lineup is usually nowhere close to full salary. I've had 200 point lineups with $1200 left in the bank. Play your best plays. Think about the odds. There is usually a slim chance that a full $50,000 lineup cashes all the way. Don't try to force a pay up when you don't have to. I don't see the need to pay up for Julio and ODB when you can go Demaryius and Antonio Brown. If you like them better this week, roll with it. Then you can pay up at the flex for somebody. Thats how you have to think in GPPs. in cash I say pay up as close as you can because you need those high floor guys, but in GPP you need to be as contrarian as possible.
QB Aaron Rodgers RB L. Blount RB DeMarco Murray WR Antonio Brown WR Randall Cobb WR Stevie Johnson TE Heath Miller P FLEX Mike Evans DST Patriots Salary left: $500 Thought process: Rodgers/Cobb stack goes ham, Pats roll up early and ride Blount in the 2nd half. Steelers throw it all over the field and Heath and Antonio both top 20 points. Mike Evans benefits from ASJ being back on the field and catches a couple long ones. Eagles run DeMarco down the Cowboys throats as he is eager to prove he's no fluke. Stevie Johnson is just too cheap not to play.
That is where I had/currently struggle with since I just started DKings. I always feel like if I have money leftover I've done something wrong and I haven't maximized my lineup.
It is a major issue for a lot of beginner and casual players. You have to consider if you're playing cash (50/50, H2H, etc) or GPP (tournament). Like I said, in a cash game you want high floor which means you're trying to fit in as many high priced guys as possible. In a GPP, you need to be able to hit a homerun, which means you have to think entirely outside of the box. Go against every conventional thought in your mind. its so easy to fit in two sneaky plays like Stevie Johnson and Langford and then go OMG I CAN GET ALL THE BRADY AND ALL THE JULIO AND ALL THE GRONK, but those guys aren't high priced because they put up monster numbers every week, they're high priced because they consistently produce and have high floors and high ceilings.
So many good value plays this week. Going heavy on the monday night game with woodhead, cutler, floyd, jeffries and gates. Also going targetting the raiders/steelers game in some lineups with brown/carr/cooper/williams woodhead/mcfadden could be some cheap low owned rbs plays too. good luck everyone!
