D&D Coronavirus thread

If we are to believe the death rate is actually around 1% or under, then we should have over 3k cases currently.

 

I would think that's probably correct. I don't think anybody but a few dullards think we're measuring all our cases.

 

Which wouldn’t be at all shocking with hundreds of millions of people, a relatively unrestrictive culture and wealth that allows for travel.

 

Currently, South Korea's new cases have begun to match their daily recoveries... will be interesting to see if 8k cases will be their peak. China is down to 16k currently infected out of an 80k total peak cases. Supposedly this isn't supposed to be possible, this is supposed to be an exponential growth that leaves millions infected.

 

The 19 death at the initial epicenter, a nursing home in Seattle, skewed the result. But I think we can easily be at 1500 cases or more.

Case mortality rate in Italy is alarming (5%)... when such an advanced health care system is overwhelmed, the rate jump. It's probably state to state but... I take 0.5% now.

 

that's why WHO said this is the first pandemic that can be contained...

SK and China approaches the problem in different way and have similar outcome, so there are definitely different method that can work...

I'm wondering how other EU handles this and what their outcome will be in 1-2 weeks (looking at Germany especially) ...

 

At the end of this tragedy, I will appreciate learning what worked and didn't. What healthcare systems worked, the impact of paid leave, how important a countries hospitals and bed/doctor/nurse per capita rate is, how much proactive handling will differentiate all the countries etc.

 

We have no idea how many people are infected in this country. There has been so little testing, and we were so unprepared, despite a lot of warning. All one had to do was look how widely it spread in China, and then South Korea. What's really frightening is Italy. An entire country of 60 million people on "lock down." That could be us. At least some test kits are going out, finally. Far later than it should have taken, and still in far too few numbers.

 

that’s just so silly

the wall is not going to stop the US from exporting cases to Mexico

US: 1010 cases
Mexico: 7 cases

 

It’s all Hollywood magic done in backlots and a lot of underpaid extras. Just like the moon landing and the first vaccine

 

Those infected should be quarantined on the moon, given a moment of prayer then nuked from orbit. It's the only way to make sure.....

 

Per this exclusive Politico article there is an "RNA extraction kit" bottle neck in the COVID19 testing production line now. No mild symptoms testing available in New York per my family member there who has flu like symptoms. I hope they are just being panicky and this is resolved soon but CDC chief hasn't been at all reassuring on the subject per article. If you can't test, you can't contain the thing..

Seems like Pence & co either don't know or don't care what is needed as far as getting the testing in place - it's like American government decided that prepping for a potential virus based pandemic/epidemic is not as sexy as something that involves rockets or "space force". I'm losing the little trust I had in the Trump administration to handle this and only pray/hope at this point that warmer weather comes and helps and that the government is ready come fall/winter.

Here are some relevant excerpts:

The growing scarcity of these “RNA extraction” kits is the latest trouble for U.S. labs, which have struggled to implement widespread coronavirus testing in the seven weeks since the country diagnosed its first case. Epidemiologists and public health officials say that the delayed rollout, caused in part by a botched CDC test, has masked the scope of the U.S. outbreak and hobbled efforts to limit it.


If enough processing kits aren’t available, the risk that testing will be disrupted is “huge,” said Michael Mina, associate medical director of molecular diagnostics at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.
....
Mandy Cohen, North Carolina’s secretary of health, said that a shortage of extraction kits and other chemicals had hampered testing in her state. “Folks were saying, ‘We are sending you the [test] kits,’ and I don’t think they understood at first what exact part of the supply chain we needed,” she said. “We needed extraction kits.”​

 

Its…so awful

 

Very sorry to hear about your family member, who should be able to be tested. What bothers me about this is that German researchers developed a "quick test" for the coronavirus, and I posted an article I ran across recently about it that was dated January 20th, several weeks ago. They gave the WHO all the information needed to produce these test kits. For some inexplicable reason (inexplicable to me), the CDC didn't take advantage of this freely available, already developed test kit, and instead decided to develop it's own. Someone tell why they couldn't have done both? Other countries were preparing for this as best they could in a timely fashion, and the US, the world's richest nation, could not? I've already posted this, but I'll post it again. Politico, which you referenced, has an excellent article that mentions the German quick test kit, and how the CDC could have used it, and decided instead to develop their own. Why couldn't they have done both?

German researchers create quick diagnostic test for Chinese coronavirus
Monday, January 20, 2020 by Chris Galford

As the world researchers try to identify the cause of a mysterious, novel coronavirus from China, researchers from the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF) have made headway on at least tracking its existing, with the creation of a new assay protocol that allows quick testing of suspected cases.

Since its discovery in Wuhan, China, the new coronavirus has popped up in cases in Thailand and Japan as well, sparking fears of a global pathogen spread. It can cause severe pneumonia. In all, 41 cases struck China itself, including two deaths. Since the initial cases were reported on Dec. 31, 2019, little more of the virus has revealed itself. Researchers still do not know how patients were infected, whether human-to-human transmission is involved or even how the disease is being transmitted, the clinical spectrum of the disease, or the extent of infection, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The new test, however, means that while experts might not yet be able to determine where the virus came from, they can at least halt it quicker. The test is publicly available, following online publication by WHO, though a joint evaluation study is underway.

“Now that this diagnostic test is widely available, I expect that it won’t be long before we are able to reliably diagnose suspected cases,” Dr. Christian Drotsen, professor and director of the Institute of Virology on Campus Charité Mitte, said. “This will also help scientists understand whether the virus is capable of spreading from human to human. This is an important step in our fight against this new virus.”

DZIF and its virus detection and preparedness group intend to increase preparedness for the emergence of new viruses, like this one.

https://homelandprepnews.com/storie...uick-diagnostic-test-for-chinese-coronavirus/

Here's the link to the Politico article. Well worth reading for those who haven't seen it:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166