Wow, great work. I think the three point shooting will improve this year, certainly it can't get any worse than last year. With Yao and T-Mac, and Bonzi's post game, these shooters will have a lot more opportunity for open shots. What if they dont? Ummmm, last i checked the coaching staff, the scouting dept, and the front office gets the big bucks, right?
Why do they shoot so many elbow 3s? I believe it has something to do with YM's post position. 45 degree is the perfect position for an entry pass to be made and our opponents always concentrate a lot on double-team YM and deny the pass. Maybe then the passer was left open and changed him mind to shoot instead of pass. The corner 3 requires several fast passes to create the oppurtunity. Our squad from last year, no offense, sucks at ball movement, Wesley did so many pump fakes that no one would buy,ever. Bogans, Head and everyone else were pretty slow at decision making too. As a result we rarely could create open shot at corner. The top spot is probably the most well-guarded spot for shooting 3. It will only get open in transition.
This is a small sample size, but the Rockets were 21-10 last year when Yao and T-Mac played. The following illustrates how Rafer and Luther performed in those games from behind the arc. Both of these guys are going to play a lot of minutes to start off the year, so they both (and T-Mac and Snyder) need to step up on their 3balls.
Hey Kim, Hate to ask you. But would you mind doing this same analysis for our power forward trio from last year? I'd like to see those shot charts on Juwan, Stro, and Chuckie. And then it would be interesting to see the breakdowns in the 31 games that they played with 111.
i.e. He is just another roll player that is affected with the loss of 111 NICE WORK KIM. JVG could use you on the staff NOW THIS IS A GREAT POST
Huh????? He is actually worse WITH Yao and TMac then he is WITHOUT them. Add 'em up. How in the world anybody could possibly that him standing there at the top of the key shooting 41% on that jumper is effective is beyond me. Kim didn't include the numbers in the block. You don't even want to see them. Hopefully he puts up Stro and Hayes too.
The primary thing that bothers me about Juwan is that when he's in there, it's like our offense is almost designed to get him that shot. They keep sagging in on Yao, and we keep going back to Juwan, time and time again. Sometimes it looks like Juwan might be able to pass it down to Yao anyway, but he never does. I don't know if JVG thinks he's clever by getting a ton of those shots out of the offense or what. 41% is not terrible for a jump shot by any means, but it is not the offense you want to consistently create. At least when Hayes is in there, we do something different offensively.
Look, the reason the shot is there is not by offensive design. It is by defensive design. His defender does sag off and front the post. The opponents WANT Juwan to take that shot. That ought to tell us something. I think Van Gundy knows Juwan is not a fit with Yao and I am convinced he will be running Battier out there at the 4 to start with TMac at the 3 and either Bonzi or Snyder at the 2. Van Gundy is too smart. He sees it. His problem is he has to make that switch while still being diplomatic to Juwan and getting Juwan to give us some reasonably productive minutes behind Yao. Backing up Yao is the only place that Juwan can add anything to this team. He can't defend. He can't board. He cannot play the offensive post against any starting 4/5s and against a lot of backup 4/5s. So, about the only thing that can be done is to play Juwan at center with a 2nd unit comprised of a post up offensive player in Bonzi and a glass eater in Chuckie. Let him chuck up that jumper when Yao is out of the game and you've got Bonzi posting up and flipping it out. There is no other way to get anything close to positive +/- numbers out of him. By the way, with Juwan on the second unit, we will have to be looking to outscore the other team's second unit, because there is absolutely no way that we are going to be able to defend most of them. That's how ineffective Juwan is defensively. We will just have to get it back on the offensive end with Bonzi and a bunch of 3 point shooters. We need Jacobsen and Head in there with Bonzi, to give him the throw outs to decent shooters, with Juwan being the last resort if none of those 3 are open.
I understand that it's a product of the defense. However, if you know what the defense is going to do (and all teams basically play it the same way) and you play right into their hands repeatedly, then it's a problem. We're obviously both on the same page that Juwan sucks with Yao. Maybe there just isn't an offense that you can effectively run with both of them out there at the same time. Maybe it's Juwan's inability to finish at the rim that causes all the problems. Compare him to Haslem, who has a pretty similar offensive role, yet he shoots 51%. Is he more effective because he is more versatile, or because he's a better jumpshooter, or because Riley uses different offensive schemes? Probably a mix of all 3. Hopefully Juwan can excel off the bench like you suggested. His post game that is basically unusable when Yao is on the floor might be more useful when he comes in with some shooters.
Awesome analysis again Kim. Folks have dismissed Rafer's performance last year as a fluke because of the injuries etc and that he'll be fine when Yao and TMac are in the game. What's disconcerting about the above diagram is the fact that it pretty much flies in the face of that whole idea. Folks need to realize that Rafer's passing skills means squat if he can't nail the open J. Regarding the sample size depending on who you talk to the number of minutes that NBA statisticians consider stats for being valid indicators are between 250-500 minutes. Just for rafer alone at an avg 38 MPG for 30 games = 1140 minutes played.
Haslem is way more useful because he is young, and he can get up and down and around the court and actually give you some defense. His defense on Dirk was tremendous in the series. And he also has a superior skill set, superior jump shot, and the ability to move around on the offensive end and hit the boards. All Juwan gives you is a hit and miss jumper, that is it.
The advantage of having Battier is that he is like a 2 playing the 4. The advantage of Bonzi Wells is that he is like a 4 playing the 2. Our shooting/rebounding problems negate each other with these two guys in the lineup. Whether we get 3pt shooting from the 1,2,3 or 1,3,4, it doesn't matter. The model is still the same, two post players and three shooters. Now, if we need more shooting, we put in Head for Wells. If we need more rebounding, we put in Hayes for Battier. Our problems are solved with substitutions now. (So if JVG doesn't have a good year, he'll probably quit.)
That Rafer chart with comments is hilarious! Good job. I think his % will improve some this year. Luther definitely hit the wall hard last year after his hot start. The guy better pick up his shooting % and defense this season or he is next to worthless. I agree with you that he will take a big step forward. Let's hope so.
I think that's way too difficult in terms of number crunching for me. In my opinion, the 5 man squad of Yao, Battier, T-Mac, Bonzi, and Rafer will be a better rebounding squad on both ends of the court than the 5 man squad of Yao, JHo, Battier, T-Mac, and Rafer. This year I really believe the Rockets are going to be a defensive force to reckon with. The combined athletecism and smarts of all their new additions will make for strong, quick rotations, and good rebounding. I would be very surpised if the Rockets don't rank near the top in Overall Defensive % and 3pt Defensive % too. As for the offense, this is where I fear they might have trouble clicking. I honestly can't see gunners like Jacobsen, Novak, and Padgett playing a MAJOR role this year. They will get their 10-15 minutes of starter relief, and maybe more time if the injury bug hits big. But everyone knows that the Rockets must hit their Elbow 3's to win big. And that means, T-Mac, Rafer, Luther, and to a lesser extent Snyder will have to step it up. Battier is a sure bet to hit his corner shots. If Luther steps it up, he will get more time than Alston at the end of games. If Alston returns to form, they will be fine. If neither Luther nor Rafer can hit that elbow 3 for over 34%, I think a trade will be made. T-Mac will be here no matter how good or bad he shoots.
Luther really does need to step up if he wants to get minutes on this team this year. I'm hoping that his role will be to get in for around 20 minutes a night and hit some threes. If Luther can hit some threes along with Rafer and Battier, the Rockets can destroy teams when they double Yao; also if they decide not to double him cause of the three ball, Yao will dominate. I think this year if the Rockets shot well from behind the arc they will win around 55 games. If not than I'd say 47-52.
I have to know something Kim. How long did it take you to make this post? Definantly one of the best and most creative i've seen!
