There is no way to avoid continued waves. The strategy is just to avoid future waves that spike above hospital capacity. The whole idea of Flatten the Curve begins with the scientific fact that there will be many, many months of new cases ... but we can flatten the rate over a long time to prevent disastrous spikes. I'm pretty confident US is going to experience a 2nd disastrous spike, because Trump is going to claim the first one is over (in belief telling everyone we are back to normal will help his election), and not do anything to keep a successfully flattened curve at bay for the full year we need.
Yes. Good post. We need to learn about what happens in the PRC and other countries. I just posted in the D&D thread a piece about how Sweden's voluntarily restrictions strategy doesn't appear to be working.
Well here it is now. The horrible news. It isn't only from the Chinese studies but now american studies from the CDC too. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/2...p_wgxasyxASigfgnBgyjK77U2z9_pBI4kfezv5_sfwnzc We found R0 is likely to be 5.7 given our current state of knowledge, with a broad 95% CI (3.8–8.9). The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example, the threshold for combined vaccine efficacy and herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission). Just kill me. This virus could even have a RO of 7-8 that is near measles. There is ZERO chance of achieving herd immunity through infection. All this is just pure delusions.
The only way to stop this super contagious virus is through the discovery of a vaccine. With some many biotech labs around the world trying to discover one, my optimistic view is that someone will bring a vaccine in less than a year versus the 12-18 months timeline. In the meanwhile, society will reopen albeit it with a lot of restrictions. Businesses that gather hundreds of people like movie theaters may be doomed, at least for the foreseeable future.
Covid is over 4 times as contagious as the flu. One person infects 5.7 people and each of those people infect 5.7 people. To have herd immunity(enough people with immunity to protect the people that don't), you would need to have 80 percent of the population exposed to the virus.
At my age, and that of my S.O., you'd think we'd notice, but sometimes I wonder. Allergies have been terrible in this early spring in Austin. We've been isolated for well over a month now, except for deliveries, and there are days I feel really weird. I usually put it down to just being a weird cat, or the allergies, but I admit to having thoughts like, "am I getting it?" from time to time. Nope. Apparently not.
The Imperial College did a new study again on the estimated number of infected https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19estimates/#/totalinfected These are the estimated as of 9 April Austria 0.81% Belgium 6.86% Denmark 0.98% France 3.87% Germany 0.85% Greece 0.15% Italy 4.33% Netherlands 4.12% Norway 0.55% Portugal 0.99% Spain 7.68% Sweden 16.33% Switzerland 2.15% United Kingdom 4.18% So even Sweden that does almost nothing and goes for herd immunity is estimated to only have 16.33% infected population. https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/Sweden Of course this will change fast because as we see it is estimated that their DAILY number of infection will reach 200k this week. But still a far cry away from the 82% infections needed to reach herd immunity. Judging from the death toll I find it impossible that Texas has a higher than 5% of population infected. It looks more near to 1%.
So the Turkey Leg Hut opened a food truck on the northside of houston and hundreds were lined up. BLM-houston and a few reporters denounced the scene.
LA went ahead and took the initiative to extend the lock down until May 15th. Hopefully other major cities follow suit. I'm glad I live in a state where the local government is being proactive about containing the spread and not rushing to lift preventative measures. Los Angeles County on Friday extended its stay-at-home order an additional month through at least May 15 in a continuing effort to curb the spread of COVID-19. Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, said that officials are extending the order because it is helping in the fight against COVID-19, but “we still have a ways to go.” According to projections by the county, if the stay-at-home order was lifted too quickly and people resumed daily life, 95.6% of residents in the county would be infected with coronavirus, said Christina Ghaly, the county’s health services director. If physical distance measures continue, the overall infection rate of the community could go down to 30%, the projections show. https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-county-officials-to-provide-coronavirus-update/
Ok, thanks. This is nothing new- this is going to infect 99.1% of people (who aren't vaccinated) eventually. Stop being such a drama queen, @malakas
If there's no vaccine I might just get the kids homeschooled. Not risking my kids plus they are learning much more with my wife.
2.5 to 5.7 ! Yick It goes back to... early intervention. You miss that early short period to contain and you are fk. "How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures." But the high R0 MIGHT also be because of lack of awareness, plus travels and gathering due to CNY... hopefully it's lower since that early period due to awareness and due to policy such as hand washing and wearing mask in public... "Among many factors, the lack of awareness of this new pathogen and the Lunar New Year travel and gathering in early and mid-January 2020 might or might not play a role in the high R0."
