It is very possible that this strain becomes endemic. The point, however, is that if a vaccine can be developed, and if antivirals can be found, you keep the death toll at a reasonable level (like the flu or something). Then, fairly quickly, the world builds up enough immunity that this becomes the fifth regular coronovirus in rotation that causes colds. One little bit of good news I guess. As the number of cases around the world has ramped up with a large curve, the number of serious cases has been a much slower increase...almost flat. The statistics are going to show that fewer and fewer percentages of people are having serious illness. Still don't want to have a large ramp up and overwhelm a health system.
I'm confused why we aren't hearing more outbreaks across the rest of Asia particularly India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and countries in Africa. Is it lack of media coverage and testing? That's the only thing that makes sense to me.
You may want to take a hiatus and do some virtual social distancing from the internet. Good luck to you.
Yes, I kind of chose to leave stuff out I didn't know how detailed some others wanted to get, but this is correct the real concern is some drugs impacting ACE2, ie more sites for the virus. I kind of left it more on health complications, so we didn't get called out, but you're absolutely correct, that we should share everything we've read from good sources/peer papers etc.
well, concern is warranted, and I’m not sure it’s “ easier” over here. There is a significant and largely unmeasured outbreak in my area. The streets are empty and people are scared. But I acknowledge: not next to Italy. Just in a city full of European travelers. but all losing sleep, etc, will do is run down your immune system. we consume news to give ourselves the sense of control and safety, but it engages fight or flight responses, and so on. we should probably all: keep washing those hands, minimize unnecessary contacts, and ration our news intake. take good care.
Singapore had case with a 1 year old that was discharged in just over week. Kids seem to be the safest. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...vid19-singapore-update-cases-tuesday-12441808
My God man I hate to dispense orders but turn your computer off for the next 48 hours. I guarantee you by tomorrow you'll feel a lot better. The sickness of the internet is that it expands one's world view way beyond what it was evolved to handle.
first case in Africa yesterday... probably due to less travel or perhaps they have advanced screening According to BBC, India tested 600k people (hard to believe... maybe they mean advance screening) that traveled into their airports. They have now pretty much closed their borders. Myanmar has been testing since 1/31 and have found no cases. Still, they only allow essential public gathering and have shutdown festivals as they said they have no idea if it is already circulating. They also could put you in prison if you don’t report suspected cases. Vietnam closed down nearly everything after a few cases from its northern province. I think because some of these countries are close to China, they took it extremely serious.. some of them have also dealt with epidemic recently and so are better prepared I find that both the US and EU has a problem with complacency among the population, then you add poor prep from gov on top...
Yeah, we should educate people on herd immunity, like for measles and some that aren't sure if it's worth getting the vaccine for their children... It is. The R0 is like 12-18, meaning doing simply herd immunity equation that like ~95% need to have the vaccine, but like in basic flu that has R0 of 2 (let's say) its like roughly 50%. I think after we get through this we should continue to discuss these factors on herd immunity and why it's essential to protecting the people who can't get vaccines due to health complications.
Hehe, she's very educated, so she's using valid sources/weeding out garbage and sharing a lot of good information with us, I worry for the people that have confirmation bias, like the ones buying all the toilet paper... Don't get me wrong, having a few weeks of important things are good, but in a situation (let's say even worse than this), I'm not thinking tp comes to mind for a lot of us. But on the other hand, maybe @malakas will need a real vacation after this. She's definitely been sharing the most valid stuff.
Seattle area still struggling with lack of tests and resources stretched too thin. but scientists there came up w helpful modeling to show the effect of social distancing. This is actually kind of good news and shows how China slowed their outbreak. Should help in Europe too.
I have work contacts in India, I know it's being taken seriously in tech sector from talking with leads over there. Ie those that can are working from home. I've discussed it on a few calls with them, with that said I am concerned for people that can't work from home or live in a densely populated areas in India. I hope they do something similar to South Korea if it's possible (tons of testing etc)
Thank you all very much for you concerns. I appreciate it. It doesn't matter if I turn off my computer and stay off the internet. Because we are already in a quarantine to save our lives. Everything is closed down, cafes, restaurants, tavernas, bars, cinemas, internet cafes. All forms of entertainment. There is a national campaign by celebrities, scientists and politicians to stay home. Everyone tries to keep a distance of one meter, and even if you have to take public transportation from tomorrow they will only allow 50% capacity at maximum in all means of transportation. Only the idiots who are selfish and arrogant break the advice and today because they had nowhere else left to go, even went to swim in crowded beaches. But probably this will make the government close down beaches too to save people from themselves. So I stay home For you maybe the disaster is only in the internet now, but here is here in the real world. I only shared my stress because it actually makes me feel better. =) Sharing your concerns and fear is actually healing.
Wow. A quarter of the population can take precautions and avoid contact can reduce infections by ten thousand according to this. Thanks to the population actually taking this seriously and saving the other idiots out there from this.
Isn’t all the hoarding /supermarket runs counterintuitive to social distancing? I guess once they get all the toilet paper they’ll just stay at home.
