Could the 2012-13 Rockets be better than the 2011-12 Rockets?

Lin wasn't cut by Mavs -- not that it matters with regards to the point that was made, but just saying.

 

The Rockets now have an Elite defender and rebounder (Asik), elite playmaker and scorer (Harden). With Parsons better than the younger Parsons.

Scola and DragiLowry being better than Lin and Patterson I give the slight edge to the New team.

 

Our bench is infinitely worse. In fact, we may have the worst bench in the league .

Dragic, Lee, Budinger, Patterson, Dalembert
vs
Douglas, Cook, Delfino, Jones, Aldrich

 

yuck.

 

One of Harden or Lin will probably almost always be on the court.

 

That's deceptive considering Lee started 26 out of 58 games, Dalembert started 45 out of 65, and Dragic started 28 out of 66.

 

That is true, but when you consider that we had...

C: Hill early season backup, Dalembert late season backup
PF: Patterson
SF: Parsons early, Budinger most of the year
SG: Lee early season, Budinger later
PG: Dragic most of the year, Boykins/Lowry late

Still a FAR better bench than what we're currently working with. It's pretty much a bunch of low-level journeymen who have little-to-no growth potential (outside of Jones)

 

Well, I have the Rockets down for 34 wins in 12/13, which is just about their win total in 11/12. If you get my drift.

 

more like

douglas
delfino
morris
jones/white
smith/d-mo

that's not much worse. dragic looked like crap when he was coming off the bench last year, so douglas should be fine. lee's better than delfino, but not by much. if morris gets consistent minutes, he'll be good, jones is a beast, and smith looks like he can be a useful player this year

 

and we're better than last year. i'll give us 46 wins. just my opinion.

 

I think 2012-2013 Rockets is slightly better than 2011-2012. With that being said, our bench is disgustingly bad ...

 

This explains my thought process clearly. It's on Rockets.com

The Rockets don’t need the Linsanity version of Jeremy Lin; in fact, it’s unfair and likely unrealistic to expect such historically great numbers from him night-in and night-out over the course of an 82-game season. And with James Harden now added to the mix, Houston’s need for that sort of mind-boggling production from Lin has been further lessened. So long as Jeremy keeps bringing his high-value arsenal of quality assists, foul-drawing, rebounds and steals to the table, the Rockets will be more than happy with their investment.

In regards to the bold add in a lower TOV% and slightly better shooting & where good.

 

That's pretty much the best case scenario for everyone.

Douglas is a terrible PG who can defend decently. Delfino brings nothing constructive to the table outside of shooting. It's arguable whether Morris should even be in the NBA. Jones will be good, but he can't carry this hapless group alone. Smith is a D-Leaguer who you're expecting too much from. Motie, White company may not be ready to make an impact this year.

 

That's assuming that each teammate on both teams are equal in every way. Players do not play in a bubble.

 

Calm down, just saying.

I was directly responding to your "85% will say no" statement, nothing else.

 

One extreme formulation, which you mention and rightfully dismiss, is that all plays and points are equal. At the other extreme, others such as, IIRC, Abbott on ESPN, have narrowed the duration of 'clutch' time to the final several minutes of the 4th quarter where the point differential is small. I don't agree with that either, because the sample sizes for that are not large enough to be meaningful. Also, good teams don't just win, but win by significant margins, and have, I think, fewer such situations.

Between those two extremes is to talk about performance over the entire 4th quarter. That's reasonable, and it is an easy way to discuss it bc boxscores split by quarter are readily available. However, I still think it fetishizes fourth quarter play. If, for example, in the 2nd quarter, the opposing team has built up a lead that has gone into the double digits, it is very impactful to be able to stop this run and reverse it; without stopping this momentum, whatever PER is put up later in the 4th quarter can actually be worth less, as in the case of garbage time stat padding. The choice of whether to expend precious energy in key ('high leverage') situations is not totally about which quarter it is. In short, there are more approaches than, on one hand, all plays are equal and, on the other hand, 4th quarter is the be all and end all. Unfortunately, there aren't public stats for other ways of doing that, and we probably can only fall back on anecdotal evidence.

Morey's 'high leverage' stats certainly must account for the 4th quarter, but I don't think they are not limited to it. Is there a strong correlation between 4th quarter PER and a more complete analysis of 'high leverage' situations such that it is basically enough to just know player rankings for 4th quarter PER? I would guess, yes, there is a strong correlation, but that's just a guess.