Correa and his struggles... last 109 AB's : 174 AVG. 1 HR

There is no controversy.

He is the Astros SS. He will not be benched, he will not be left off the playoff roster. This is ludicrous talk. Done. End.

All of this assumes he is healthy enough to play. And he is right now.

 

The quotes qualified it. I didn't use them just for fun.

The measure of poor is based off last season -- that fact is clear, yet you dodge facts and your OWN thesis.

 

It's not ludicrous talk to consider benching or at least platooning any baseball player who has hit for .450ish OPS his past 2 months, assuming Correa doesn't show improvement over the next 2 weeks.

At that level of production and given the strength of the Astros roster, it's hard to imagine a data optimized lineup is going to include him.

Keeping him off the playoff roster is clearly a bad idea given the lack of depth at SS and his playoff success track record. However, I believe the idea of benching/platooning him is definitely an idea being bounced around between Hinch and Luhnow and the analytics team.

Marwin is a much better bat right now than Correa, so an optimal lineup arguably has Marwin at SS and an OF of Springer and any 2 out of Kemp, Reddick and Marisnick.

At the end of the day, a well run team puts an optimal lineup on the field.

 

Don't forget defense. Correa is a superior defensive SS to Marwin. In 4 times as many chances Correa has the same number of errors as Marwin. As long as he is healthy, Correa will start at SS.

 

Beltran was benched in the playoffs last year for Gattis towards the end. Hinch was very loyal to Beltran but a point was reached where Beltran's lack of production did force a change.

Correa is definitely a superior defensive SS to Marwin. However, if you project Marwin at a .750 postseason OPS and Correa at a .500 OPS (which is very reasonable given what we've seen since mid July or so), Correa's defensive superiority is not worth the steep OPS tradeoff, particularly when you can still utilize Correa's defense as a weapon by substituting him in late innings like you will likely see happen with Marisnick. Use the better offensive lineup to help you get a lead and then get help from Correa in shutting the door defensively.

Per the Mendoza line philosophy, at a certain point defensive ability can not make up for extremely subpar hitting. I don't think a firm Mendoza OPS has established like a .200 Batting average was, but if we simply use the Mendoza approach Correa's .175 average does not justify any level of defensive skill. Essentially, he's below break even at current offensive levels.

 

I've mentioned this before, for the little it was worth.

 

In a world where ego doesn't exist in a 1 off scenario you might have a slight bit of a point. There is no way the Astros are going to do that to the face of their franchise who is 23 years old and has had the success he's had. They will keep writing him in the lineup and trotting him out there. Lunow and Hinch have not had one bit of a discussion about benching Correa or leaving him off the roster. They are riding with him all the way.

 

As bad as Jake has hit this season, save his one great month, he almost single handedly prevented Rondon's implosion the other night.

I am continually amazed at how little respect defense is given among baseball fans.

 

Really? I learned that sh@t 3 decades ago.

 

Excuse me while I interrupt the fawning among the old people in this thread. Defense certainly has value, but does Correa's defensive value outweigh his ineptitude on offense? I'll do some research and data analysis myself but was curious if anyone already had it quantified.

 

I love Jake. I love a great defense. I loved Everett and Ausmus with the glove. But, defense if probably about 10% of the game. It’s akin in value probably to baserunning. Batters box is probably worth about 40% and what happens on the mound 40%. Defense (outside of catcher I’d argue) is a differentiating factor in winning all things else being equal. Especially when the Astros have fools striking out 13 every night seemingly. But yeah, no way I trust Marwin at SS over Correa so I can downgrade 2 positions defensively with Marwin and Kemp in the lineup. That differentiation and 2 or 3 possible outs over a 7 game playoff series matters. A lot. And Correa might eventually run into one.

 

A well-run team also considers the clubhouse and the long-term value of keeping their stars happy and emotionally invested in their team. The team is not benching Correa unless he can't play. Comparing Correa - a franchise cornerstone - to Beltran, an aging part-time player who was brought in partly as a mentor - is ludicrous. They will live or die with Correa in the lineup.

 

Right?

 

Even Luhnow would admit that trying to quantify the value of "culture" or "the clubhouse" is impossible at present time. You may very well be right that keeping him in is a necessary evil, but my opinion is he that he can't swing a bat and therefore cannot play.

 

Carlos Beltran was one of the most accomplished postseason perfomers in the MLB entering the 2017 playoffs. He was struggling at the plate, but benching/platooning a HOF All-time playoff great for Evan Gattis wasn't a move conventional wisdom would necessarily prescribe.

As you said, Beltran was a mentor last season. Benching a mentor isn't a move that on paper is great for the Clubhouse, but Hinch made a data driven decision based on Beltran's struggles.

Adding a closer accused of domestic violence wasn't a move that likely sat well in the Clubhouse, but the team made it, again based on analytics. The Astros aren't afraid to take risks. They want to win.

None of us know how Correa would react to a platoon or off the bench role. We should give the guy more credit than to assume he's going to be a diva and pout about it. This is a close knit team and I give Correa the benefit of the doubt that he would be understanding given the situation.

Correa has already been moved from the 4 hole down to the 6 hole. At one time the chatter was that he was entrenched in that spot no matter what and we see that Hinch moved him down. Again, Hinch clearly wasn't afraid to reduce Correa's role. Moving a guy who's batted third or clean up his whole career to #6 arguably would be demotivating for Correa but Correa certainly doesn't seem to be pouting about it.

No one player is above the team. This is the philosophy employed by the great dynasties in sports and that's the vision Luhnow and Hinch have. This is going to mean sometimes making decisions that seem cold and unpopular (i.e. the chances the Patriots take on questionable character guys, Popovich benching superstars who aren't showing the defensive effort he espouses, Roberto Osuna). Ultimately, history shows that morale stays high on these dynasties because there is no greater driver of morale than winning. Put your team in the best position to win and you maximize the chances of long term high morale.

 

Marwin Gonzalez actually has a higher Defensive WAR than Carlos Correa this season (0.4 vs. 0.3). Unclear what Marwin's Defensive WAR is at SS vs. other positions but we can all see Marwin's struggles in the outfield so I'm guessing his Defensive WAR at SS is greater than his overall WAR.

Correa is an exceptional talent. I think sometimes as fans we get so enamored with his strong arm and his smoothness that we overrate his defensive skill and conflate talent with performance. 0.3 Defensive WAR is basically average to slightly above average.

By contrast, Franciso Lindor's Defensive WAR is 2.4 and Andrelton Simmons Defensive WAR in 2018 is 3.1 and Nick Ahmed is 3.0.

 

All you Delgado loving friends are going to go nuts when Correa outplays Lindor in the playoffs.

I'm already sick of the Lindor loving that will commence in here from the you-know-whos.

 

One thing I do love about Lindor is his switch hitting. Also, he won us all free tacos in October 2016.
Just my two cents.

 

Do you know how many players in the AL have an OPS of .832, or better? 14. Fourteen players. And one Astro, BTW (among qualifiers). Anyone that thinks that's poor - even using Correa's 2017 season as a standard - is not very smart.

Again, if the standard is last year, the word you're looking for is "disappointing." But using that standard, there is a long list of Astros who are having "disappointing" seasons.

 

They also had 500 plate appearances to fall back on - they knew *exactly* what 40-year old Carlos Beltran could provide by October.

While Correa has been objectively worse, it's still only 140 plate appearances on the back of a rather serious injury that cost him six weeks of his season.

I don't want to be pedantic but this plays somewhat into my point above - Correa didn't log a single plate appearance in July. Maybe you meant August, and that's fine. My point is, while he has undoubtedly been an horror show since his return, it hasn't been *that* long. Again, with Beltran, we had 500 plate appearances; we all knew 2004 postseason Carlos Beltran wasn't going to walk through any doors.

Correa may require extensive medical care this offseason to fully heal and thus, might not ever find it again this season. BUT... under no circumstances are the Astros going to bench him. His potential is too great.