Correa and his struggles... last 109 AB's : 174 AVG. 1 HR

The Astros aren't playing him for his glove, that isn't good enough to carry a terrible bat ala Adam Everett. The Astros are gonna play him because he's Carlos Correa, and the off chance that he starts playing like Carlos Correa again is worth the risk. He's the most talented player on the roster, and could still win multiple MVP awards.

But he's been abysmal, there's absolutely now way to argue otherwise. Among people that have as many PA as him since the break, his OPS is literally the worst in baseball. His WAR is also among the worst, just a fraction of point ahead of Chris Davis. He isn't driving the ball, he isn't even trying to drive the ball most of the time. What hits he does get are usually very soft.

I'm not gonna talk s**t about him like some are so happy to do (there's been a strange undercurrent of negativity around him with some fans even before these struggles), but I'm not gonna lie to myself either and ignore what I've been watching. I'm just gonna watch and hope he has some kind of breakthrough because he's still a huge part of this franchise.

 

That is the controversy isn't it?

He seems healthy in the field but not at the plate.

Let me add that it would be hard to imagine Correa not being on the playoff roster. At the same time, its hard to imagine a .180 hitter being on the playoff roster. I cant reconcile these two points.

 

Welcome to baseball. He may be terrible for a month and then be the best player in baseball the next.

 

That is pretty much it (bolded). The risk shouldn't be dismissed. If the offense sputters in the playoffs and Correa is still slumping badly, the "undercurrent of negativity" could go viral. I dont want to see Correa under that microscope, but if he is partly to blame for a playoff collapse, it will happen. Hinch too for playing him and the brass for not bolstering our lineup at the trade deadline as well. Yes, yes, yes, its all speculation. And if things do play out this way, much of it will be unfair.

Anything short of a WS appearance will spark all sorts of blame. I dont want to see it, but its unavoidable.

Before I get tagged with being anti-Correa, let me also say that he is and will remain part of the Astros future. And I have pretty solid feelings he will turn it around next year.

 

He'll undoubtedly be the poster child for any defeat - but that's because fans are lazy and dumb, and need an easy target for their misplaced rage.

The Astros are 21-13 since he returned. They have more than enough pieces to compensate for Carlos Correa. If they lose, it won't singularly be because of him.

All of this is (unfortunately) true but only because the vast majority of fans are awful, impatient morons. Other than collapsing down the stretch and failing to somehow not make the playoffs, there is NO scenario in which this season can objectively be viewed as a collapse, IMO.

Disappointing? Sure; we all want a long playoff run because long playoff runs are fun and awesome. But the team is (probably) going to win a very tough division and the team is (probably) going to win 100 games. Any expectation beyond that should be properly tempered because there is no way to predict how a playoff series will play out. Do i think the Astros are a significantly better team than Cleveland? I do. But will I be shocked if Cleveland wins? Nope. They have three stud pitchers, a very good bullpen, and 3-4 bats that can absolutely carry a team if hot.

Those of us who remember what the 70s and 80s were like, even the 90s when the team won but could never replicate that success in the postseason... I don't see how anyone could call 2018 a collapse.

 

There is no way that anyone can view this season as a collapse. The Astros are going to win close to or over 100 games and did so in a very competitive division and the harder league. Could the Astros have won MORE games? Sure, this team was good enough to win 110+ games and been one of the best regular season teams ever,but there are injuries and fluctuations from season to season and that shouldn't be expected.

Also, I don't think that the Astros front office should get much criticism for how they handled going about repeating. The Astros added Cole to their rotation, they added Smith and Rondon to the bullpen. At the deadline, the Astros needed a bat and a bullpen improvement. Luhnow revamped the bullpen adding Osuna and Pressly and called up James and Valdez. So essentially Luhnow completely overhauled the bullpen and improved the rotation. As far as a bat goes, unless we were going to get Machado, there really wasn't much out there to get. Further, White has come up and taken a strangle hold on the DH spot with an OPS approaching 1.000.

Go look at the greatest seasons by a baseball team in history...... half of them did not win a World Series. The reality is, that the Sox, Yankees and A's are all very good. The Astros have a better than 50% chance of not winning the WS. Very few teams repeat, and luck plays a big part in it.

So, if the Astros fail to repeat.... I don't think there is much blame to go on the front office, owner or players. The injury to Correa, well we do not know what the degree of injury is and we do not know how much of it is a timing issue and how much is physical. Also, there was no way for the Astros to know that Correa would be injured and that they needed to add another hitter....... beyond Tyler White and Tony Kemp.

Right now, this is the best the Astros have been this season....... the bullpen is substantially better, the line up overall is better with White and Kemp (even with an injured Correa), Marwin is starting to hit and Altuve and Springer have come around a bit. Maldonado and Marisnick help the defense........ and the rotation is rock solid.

Hinch and Luhnow have the Astros where they need to be on September 19....... now it is just a matter of execution and some luck.

 

The negativity occurred because his season was "poor" even before the injury. That statement is fair, but I understand some will deny it.

Springer and Altuve's seasons have also been substandard.

All true fans should continue liking them, cheering for them, and hopng they do better.

 

I'm just saying that he wasn't pulled last night for anything other than getting Tucker an AB.

 

Cant agree here. Our line-up (offensively) was better last year, even with Bregman, Kemp and White contributing more this year.

 

Who is saying it is???

 

Beltran was getting AB's in the ALCS last year. Reddick was still batting 9th. Gattis was the DH. The bats went silent for games 1-5 of that series, along with games 1,4, 6 of the WS.

The only thing you can criticize about this year's lineup is that Springer/Altuve/Correa not as consistent or dominant as last year... but none of them are all that replaceable in the lineup.

Nobody would be surprised if this lineup outperforms last year's playoff team.

 

His season was not, by any measure, "poor" prior to the injury. He did slump badly in May (.192/.292/.394/.686) - but that's not terribly uncommon for even for great players (go back and look at some of Bagwell's seasons, month-to-month). But he was outstanding in April (.330/.398/.534/.932) and great in June (.284/.367/.522/.889); well on his way to building toward a MONSTER season.

As is, he was slashing .268/.352/.480/.832 when he got hurt. If anyone complains about a 23-year old SS with an .832 OPS, please punch that person as hard as you can.

 

I am not trying to predict what will happen in this years playoffs. I have speculated about what could.

My post illustrates last years regular season performance vs this years. In that light, Springer/Altuve/Correa not as consistent or dominant as last year is part of it, but Marwin, Yuli and Reddick as well.

This years offensive crew could surpass last years in the playoffs. Could. But using the regular seasons comparison as a basis, its more probable they under-perform, which would be very bad considering the silent games you point out from last year.

Our pitching is clearly better. Maybe our defense as well. So I am NOT writing our guys off in any way. But if we do go deep in the playoffs this year, I expect our pitching to be the primary reason, not our offense.

 

His season was easily POOR compared to last season, his own standard. That's why I used parentheses.

Your adding "by any measure" defeats your own point because last year's measure has already been measured. Good job

 

Agree with the vast majority of your post and think it's spot on, but a few thoughts/questions -

- Thanks to WAR, we can measure each player's contribution to the team fairly scientifically now. I can't imagine Correa's WAR post injury return is positive. If it's negative, he is hurting the team's chances of winning regardless of what the team's record is since he returned.

- I'm assuming you think Kluber, Bauer and Carrasco are the three stud pitchers on the Indians. I'm with you on Kluber and Bauer but I looked closely at Carrasco's game log and he has a quite distinct pattern of mediocre production against good offenses this year and excellent performance against weak offenses. Carrasco was a bona fide stud, but he seems to have dipped a bit this season. Still a good starter, of course. I'm hoping we can get to him if/when we are matched up.

- The Indians are an extremely talented team. I think the Astros are better, but not significantly. I'd say we are a 60-40 ish favorite against Cleveland. Anything beyond a 65-35 favorite would seem to be too aggressive in my opinion.

- I thought Cleveland's bullpen was a negative for them? I know pre ASB their bullpen was close to the worst in the league statistically. Have they improved that much?

I really think your point about the impossibility of Correa costing the Astros a shot at the WS bears repeating. I see a ton of posts and articles that our hopes of repeating lie on Correa's return to form. It's basically impossible in baseball for a single hitter to hurt a team that much, particularly when he is a good defensive player. We can certainly win a WS with Correa hitting .400 or .450 OPS in the postseason. It will be a lot easier of course if he is providing that level of production in the bottom of the order, not in the middle of it.

 

Do you mean quotes? The word you're looking for is "disappointing" not "poor." But "disappointing" wouldn't be accurate, either.

23-yo SS A: .273/.337/.505/.842
23-yo SS B: .268/.352/.480/.832

23-yo SS A (Francisco Lindor, obviously) finished 5th in MVP voting last year.

You didn't initially qualify your statement. Even doing so retroactively, his season, pre-injury - was not "poor" as demonstrated above. Jose Altuve is not having a season as good as last year, either - I would not characterize his season as "poor" however.

 

I don't think much of Cleveland, at all, honestly. They are in the worst division in baseball - perhaps, one of the worst divisions ever; certainly one of the worst recently - and are tied with Tampa for the 5th best record in the AL, trailing Boston by 18.5 and Houston by 10.5. They are 44-23 v. the AL Central; 40-43 against everyone else.

Anything can happen in a postseason series - especially a five-game series where one bad bounce can swing it. But I think the match-up looks very much like the ALDS match-up last year v Boston where the Red Sox didn't go down easily - but went down nonetheless in 4.

I don't honestly pay that close attention to them. I know they can throw Cody Allen, Brad Hand and Andrew Miller at the end of a game. On paper, that's a pretty decent trio.

Look no further than last year's ALCS and George Springer, who is proof that 1) you can win without one of your best bats; 2) you should let great players play their way out of their slumps.

 

So if reddick hits in the playoffs and correa doesnt, they break even with last year.