The problem with a lot of comparisons of players over time has been context. That is, not all points are created equal. And with so much talk in the past years about how Yao can't compare to the Dream in their first years, I figured I'd look into this, since I'm bored. Here's what I got. Rookie year Yao(02-03) 13.5 ppg(14.4% of team scoring) 8.2 rpg(18.7% of team rebounding) 1.8 bpg(29.8% of team blocks) 50% shooting(13% higher than team average) Team Record: 43-39 Dream(84-85) 20.6 ppg(18.5% of team scoring) 11.9 rpg(26.2% of team rebounding) 2.7 bpg(37% of team blocks) 54% shooting(6.7% higher than team average) Team Record: 48-34 Some thoughts: Scoring was MUCH higher back in the Dream's early days. Which is why Yao's scoring isn't as bad when seen in the team context. Rebounding between the two eras isn't much different, so the raw stats here is fairly accurate. FG%, of course, was much higher back in those days simply because people weren't jacking up 3s all the time. So this data's skewed towards Yao. But blocks are VERY skewed towards the early 80s. The 84-85 season had 21% more blocks than the 02-03 season. Still, there's no doubt that Akeem Olajuwon's rookie year was quite superior to Yao's. This is definitely not up to debate. His stats, except for FG%, are simply superior no matter how you look at it. 2nd years Yao(03-04) 17.5 ppg(19.4% of team scoring) 9.0 rpg(21.1% of team rebounding) 1.9 bpg(35% of team blocks) 52.2% shooting(18% higher than team average) Team record: 45-37 Dream(85-86) 23.5 ppg(20.5% of team scoring) 11.5 rpg(25.2% of team rebounding) 2.81 bpg(42% of team blocks) 52.6% shooting(6.5% higher than team average) Team record: 51-31 My thoughts: Now the numbers hardly looks as one sided as their rookie years. Hakeem still has an edge basically all areas, but hardly significant. Yao is almost on par in terms of scoring. His rebounding and blocks are both behind Olajuwon. The FG% really shows just how much more efficient Yao is with the ball though. They have virtually identical FG%, but 52% shooting is obviously more impressive today. To me, Yao is already a better offensive player than post-2nd-season Hakeem. The slightly lower points total is made up by being more efficient in his shooting. His defense and rebounding still needs work, but not as much as one may think. I doubt he'll ever be as prolific a rebounder as Dream, or as good a help defender. Both of which Dream exceled at. But overall, Yao compares quite well to, let's not forget, one of the top 3 NBA centers in history. Ah, can't wait for the season to begin...
Great post. To add just a few points of perspective to this. Yao does not have anywhere near the raw level of athletisism that Hakeem had. Nor does he have the benefit of playing four years of college ball in the states. No doubt this helped Hakeem develop much more quickly. Now having said that I would like to see Yao's rebounding numbers increase dramatically this year.
I beg to differ the stats show a big difference: 6 pts per game 2.5 reb per game 1.0 blocks per game That is a huge difference. Just look at the centers that fall that far below Yao- Those that average say: 11.5, 6.5, .9 They are far below Yao.
Very good and interesting analysis there. I'm not sure if this trend will continue for Yao but base on both of the player's stats it seems Yao shows a greater improvement in his second year than Hakeem's. I really hope thats is an indication of a potential for him to be great. Thats why peoples expectation are so high for Yao to play even better this year, and anything but that will be a disappointment.
To be fair to Yao, Hakeem got the better statistics by playing like 4 minutes more each game (that can also be blamed on Yao's conditioning though). Nevermind. Just trade Yao. I say Yao for the whole Warriors team.
Hakeem was better coming in, and IMHO, will always be better than Yao ever will. I would love to be wrong, but Hakeem had quickness, a rarity for a big man. Yao has size, and his demeanor makes it difficult to utilize this advantage. Yao will be a great player, perhaps a borderline Hall of Famer, but never a dream. DD
Unfortunately, you're missing the whole point of my post. Which is that stats should be seen in context with where they're from. The NBA teams in the mid 80s routinely average about 110 points a game. You can't tell me that one point in the mid 80s is worth just as much as one point in 2004. If Hakeem and Yao both played in similar offensives in the same season, then you can match their raw stats and prove your point here. But they don't. Another thing I wanted to point out, but forgot, were the team records. It was only to show that neither player were "padding stats" on crappy teams. The Rockets in 85-87 were superior to the Rockets in 02-04, which does work in Hakeem's favor. He did indeed play a bigger role on better teams.
please don't do this...please don't make some little rivalry out of these players. i love yao....but hakeem is untouchable. let's not start comparing them. please. pretty please. with sugar on top.
The original post addressed your point already by pointing out the output % among the entire team. From that perspective, Yao was almost identical in turns of points, ~20% of the team. If you fact in the % of shots they took, and the per minutes stats, Yao might have a slightly edge with the scoring. However, Yao was a worse rebounder, worse shot-blocker, which everyone seems agree on.
Hakeem was a dunk and shotblocking machine in his early days. He was physically superior to any other big man when he came out in the draft. Guys that tall should not move like a cheetah. However, he refined his game to allow him to score further from the basket. That's when the Rockets started killing folks. Yao is going through his career in the exact opposite mode. He's got some of the stuff like the jumper and hook shot somewhat down. It's not automatic, but his field goal percentage is near the tops in the NBA which denotes some proficiency. He doesn't dunk or block to nearly the extent that Hakeem did early in his career. Yao is tall, but he's not athletic at all. Falsone is working with Yao, but that's a slow journey. However, it will be genetically impossible for Yao to approach the physical superiority that Hakeem had over every single big man in the NBA from Robinson to Ewing. If Yao is going to try to outquick his man, it will be futile. Vlade Divac didn't exactly set the world on fire in his debut, but he was a very effective NBA player due to his passing skills. Yao definitely needs to focus on that more instead of the brute force and panther-agility that he thinks he has to have to succeed. Every single player in the NBA now knows Yao's game when he puts the ball down on the floor to try to get a shot up. This is why he gets the ball stripped so much. It's like slow motion sometimes. Hone his decision-making and shoot the ball within a short time frame in order to prevent defenders from adjusting and stealing the ball. If Yao's going to be true superstar and not a made up one, he must absolutely have control over the mental attributes of basketball.
Yao is playing the new rules, which was made against Shaq. It is much more difficult to play the C position now than Hakeem's era. Stats wise, Dream was ahead of Yao at this stage of their careers. But just like comparing the economies, now and 20 years ago, it's always hard to say which is good, the play field is different. Therefore I see little meaning by comparing two different players at two ages.
These stat's are meaningful only if Yao and Hakeem had the same teammates and facing the same opponents. Otherwise, you are comparing Yao to apples and Hakeem to oranges. If they don't have the same benchmark, there is no way to say one has better relative (to the team) performance than the other. Take scoring for example. Having better teammates can have two different effects on your relative performance: 1. it is easier to score since you get greater help from your teammates. But it doesn't mean you will score more. 2. It is harder to stand out from you teammates. An interesting way to see this is to imagine that Yao and Hakeem had exactly the same team-relative stat's but Yao's teammates were scrubs while Hakeem had all-stars around him. Would you say Yao and Hakeem are equally good simply because they had the same stat's? Well, if Yao's team had more or same wins as Hakeem's team, I can make an arguement for Yao being better. On the other hand, I can easily argue for Hakeem too. The bottomline is team-relative performance is not a good measure of how good a player is without taking into accounts other important factors, one of which being the number of wins and losses. And Hakeem did have more wins than Yao in both years.
When Yao makes the regular season MVP look like a wuss during the playoffs, is the day I will compare him to Dream.
Where Yao will end up with, one of the all time greats, or borderline HOF, largely depends on how successful the Rockets will be, as much as his own performance. If the Rockets win multiple titles next few years with Yao providing decent lines, say 20/10, he will be a HOFer, and remembered as one of the all-time greats; if he can provide 23/12, but the Rockets never advance to the final, he will be remembered as a very good player. Just look at Wilt & Russel, MJ & D. Wilkins. Bottom line, team success dictates individual success. Basketball is a team sports after all.
I think the problem with Yao is consistency right now. Some nights, he sure looked like the next great center. Some nights, he was just not there. Fatique, mental toughness, whatever it is, I will say that is what he lacks comparing with Hakeem.
Hakeem made the playoffs with Sleepy Floyd, Buck Johnson, Thorpe, and insert no name shooting guard here___. There isn't a comparison. He scored through triple teams and ran the length of the court to block shots. There is no comparison, no matter how you rig the stats.
