From reading this post it appears that you don't fully understand what sabermetrics are or how they are used. ESPN produced what they called "The Great Analytics Rankings" which they described like this: ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com unleashed our experts and an army of researchers to rate 122 teams on the strength of each franchise's analytics staff, its buy-in from execs and coaches http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings# You're citing the Spurs and Mavs as examples of what the Rockets don't due and attributing that to sabermetrics yet SA and Dallas are right on par with the Rockets in their use of Sabermetrics. You seem to have the idea that every decision that the Rockets make is the result of plugging numbers into a formula. As Morey has said on multiple occasions, sabermetrics are only one portion of what they do. It helps them gain advantages in certain situations but it's not the entirety of how they make decisions. As I noted above, the Spurs are a huge sabermetrics team and were one of the early adopters. Here's a quick blurb from the ESPN article relating to the Spurs: The Spurs' famously fluid style of play comes in large part from the wisdom provided by the numbers. The Spurs get into their offense quickly and relentlessly seek out open shots from the 3-point line and at the basket. No team has attempted more corner 3s than the Spurs over the past decade, and under Gregg Popovich they've also excelled at taking away 3-pointers and shots at the rim, forcing opponents to the midrange. General manager R.C. Buford explained at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference how the Spurs had, years earlier, married Popovich's coaching instincts to analytics: "I think Pop got interested when he saw areas that weren't traditional basketball philosophy that were important to him supported by the data. He started asking different questions." Actually you can. Michael Lewis' New York Times article "The No-Stats All-Star" gained much notoriety for doing just that. The article was about how Shane Battier was such a valuable player even though he doesn't put up stats. The article talks about how the team just plays so much better when Battier is on the floor despite him producing a modest stat line (advanced or traditional). Results are a statistic too. If a team does better with a guy like Battier on the floor then that gets evaluated. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?_r=0 There's lots of statistical analysis to predict dynamic and fluid situations. It's not always correct but no scouting method is. Lawson has just played poorly so far this season. Has he played any better when Harden is on the bench? You seem to be attributing every problem to sabermetrics when most of everything that you mention has no relation what-so-ever. As far as Phil Jackson, he's kind of an outlier in any analysis. He had Jordan, Pippen and Rodman and then later Shaq and Kobe. Phil could manage egos well but those teams won due to their players. Much like GS is doing right now, going 15-0 with Luke Walton at the helm. Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Golden State, Memphis, OKC and Portland all have coaches that buy in to sabermetrics. I don't see where it's that difficult to find coaches to buy in. Again, Dallas is a huge sabermetrics team, has been from day one. Basically, if you have a superstar you stick with them. Do you see the Rockets dealing Harden? As far as the Mavs setting an example of loyalty and franchise culture, I think you may need to brush up on your recent NBA history. The mavs gone through more player than the Rockets over the last 4 to 6 years. They are no different than any other team, if you feel your team is a contender then you keep the core intact and try to add a piece to get you over the top. If you don't feel you are a contender then you make moves. After the last season, the Rocket felt they could contend and they brought back almost all of last years team. The Mavs broke up a championship team. The Lakers have been the most anti-sabermetrics team in the league and they've been churning their roster every season. That has nothing to do with the use or non-use of sabermetrics. -\ Staff mentoring? You mean like Olajuwon and McHale working with players on post moves? Who are these "naturals" that also have no measurable? You'd have to provide specific examples in order to make a valid argument. If you're saying that there was a 'natural' that was hated by sabermetrics and they proved to be great, then who was it? Of course, there's always been cases of players being overlooked and turning out to be stars even with traditional scouting. Again, the Spurs and Mavs have been using sabermetrics as long as the Rockets. They have obviously won championships. Here's an excerpt from the ESPN article detailing the Mavs use of sabermetrics: In 2000, upon buying the team, Cuban reached out to his former Indiana University professor Wayne Winston, who (along with sports statistician Jeff Sagarin) created the first version of adjusted plus-minus. Later, Cuban brought in 82games.com founder Roland Beech, who was on the bench as the NBA's first "stats coach" when Dallas upset the Miami Heat to win the 2011 NBA championship. After that victory, former ESPN Insider John Hollinger highlighted Rick Carlisle as "unquestionably the most cerebral and stat-friendly of the league's 30 head coaches." Carlisle cited lineup data as a key reason he made the move during 2011 NBA Finals to start J.J. Barea and use Brian Cardinal as a backup to Dirk Nowitzki. "Analytics have been an important component of who we are since I walked in the door 15 years ago," Cuban told ESPN.com. "What's changed is that all teams now use all the data available to them to make personnel decisions, so the market has become more efficient. We have strived to introduce new and exclusive sources of data so that we can improve performance of our players." The ESPN article ranks NBA teams in tiers based on their buy-in on sabermetrics. Here's their tiers. Compare the tiers with the teams that were in the conference finals last year and also against the teams that were picking highest in the lottery. Sabermetrics aren't unique to the Rockets. Even the Lakers have added sabermetric personel and I believe they were the last team in the league to do so. ALL-IN --------- Dallas Houston Philadelphia San Antonio BELIEVERS ------------- Atlanta Boston Cleveland Detroit Golden State Memphis OKC Portland ONE FOOT IN --------------- Charlotte Indiana Miami Milwaukee Orlando Phoenix Sacramento Toronto Utah SKEPTICS ------------ Chicago Denver LAC Minnesota New Orleans Washington NONBELIEVERS ----------------- Brooklyn Lakers New York
Yeah, not bad analysis on the stat users vs not, but what accounts for running 3 points into the ground even when they're not working, or managing player relations like ****? Obviously that last part isn't on stats (player relations), but... I personally see that even with Dallas running a revolving door on players and the SAS having good player relations they have to be using more than just stats, so something is definitely missing from Morey's management. For example.... I'm not a Lin fan but the whole big eyes on Melo and using his Jersey number was just wrong, I haven't heard of problems like that with the Spurs/Mavs... I personally think putting stats aside the other 2 texas teams are managed a hell of a lot better than the Rockets, even with Cuban inheriting a good team he's still been able to keep them relevant for more ~10 years, and the SAS have done an amazing job on drafts along with using Duncan long after his decline. Adding to player relations, I know it's a business and the players do too, but Morey basically wears this on his sleeve and is crude to the point that I think it trickles down to the players, I don't see that with the other 2 texas teams even when Dallas basically reloads frequently. So basically the Rockets have a (apparently good) stats team and a lot of other problems. Hell, before Morey, Les ****ing got rid of Hakeem, Wtf. Cuban already won by being loyal to their one franchise player and so did the Spurs (obviously talking about Duncan and Dirk)... Oh right... our one franchise player of all time played in Toronto, Les should have paid hakeem the extra money and had him retire a rocket (sorry on the off topic stuff, but still frustrating and I think it still accounts for the piss poor player management).
As far as the 3 point shots, the simple answer is that our players are taking the shots they normally take and they are taking the shots that are available. As everyone is painfully aware, we have been in a team-wide shooting slump this year. Everyone is bad. We know that and other teams know that too. So, what do those teams do? They pack the lane against us and encourage us to shoot 3 pointers. Why wouldn't you. Take a look at how congested the lane is when we have the ball. That makes it difficult for Harden or Lawson to drive, it takes away Howard almost completely and it prevents a guy like Brewer from slashing to the rim. Right now we can get an open look at a 3 almost any time we like. The problem is that we've sucked at shooting from behind the arc. What are our other options? Have Harden and Lawson force it and drive into multiple defenders? Harden has to resort to this quite often but with his man and two bigs between him and the rim, he's not going to be able to score efficiently enough trying that on a regular basis. Sure, he'll still draw fouls just because he's so good at getting to the rim but he's not able to get all the way to the rim and finish like he did in the past. Throw it into Dwight? Unfortunately, the same pack-the-paint defense pretty much negates Dwight. He's always very deliberate on postups but with the kind of lane congestion that we see now, he's got no chance. Just too easy to double him and that's a turnover waiting to happen. Run the pick and roll with Dwight? That's not as easy because there's an extra big in the paint and Harden's man is sagging off of him. Dwight's not even getting a clear path to the rim on the roll because of the extra big and Harden's man is falling back and further clogging up the middle. So what do we do? The obvious answer is that we start shooting the 3 better. If we start shooting at our normal rate then teams won't be able to play us the way they currently are. Keep shooting like we are and we'll continue to see the same type of defenses. What we're seeing from other teams is similar to the playoff defenses we've seen the last 3 years but with the addition of Harden's man also sagging off him too. Teams are giving us the 3 point shot right now in order to take away the lane from us. It's simplistic but we just have to start shooting better. That's really the only way to stop teams from playing that type of defense. If we had a couple of guys shooting even average, we'd be much better. Our problem right now is that EVERYONE is shooting poorly. If you were the coach gameplanning to play against the Rockets, would you do anything other than pack the paint?
It is not analytics or sabermetrics itself. These are great tools and have been proven to be superior than traditional measurements. The problem is how you prioritize things. The balance between cap and asset management and human factors such as character, leadership, and chemistry. By now, it is plenty clear that the collapse we are witnessing is the result of character and/or leadership quality of the two "cornerstones" players, Harden probably more than Howard. There are talks about guys like Terry and Ariza. But these guys were brought in just a couple of years ago. They do not represent the culture of the team. They can't come up to Harden and say, "Hey, you might be doing this **** somewhere else but we don't tolerate it here." Well, what is "here"? They don't represent that Rockets organization.
I believe that Jerry West's involvement with the Warriors is why they aren't classified as "all-in". Here's their summary of GS: Overall, you might describe the Warriors as "cautious believers" in analytics. Their large, diverse front office -- which includes two primary owners, plus Jerry West, GM Bob Myers and other prominent voices -- is unlikely to be in complete agreement about anything, but a key segment of the organization led by co-owner Joe Lacob speaks up on behalf of data. "I'm a great believer [in analytics], we're great believers in always listening and trying to integrate statistics with what we see," Lacob told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury-News in 2012. "We want to be on the cutting edge, but you can't be all statistics because that doesn't tell the whole story." Lacob's son, Kirk, oversees analytics as assistant GM. Golden State employs the expertise of Silicon Valley to make sense of the massive data set provided by SportVU camera tracking (the Warriors were one of the first six teams to pay for SportVU), relying on local startup MOCAP Analytics. Despite Golden State's investment, a handful of sources around the league expressed skepticism that the Warriors have gleaned as much from SportVU data as they have publicly claimed. The heady acquisitions of defensive stoppers Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green speak to Golden State's respect for the numbers. Iguodala was third in the NBA in real plus-minus last season, and this season the Warriors have four of the top 30 players on the RPM leaderboard -- Stephen Curry (No. 1), Klay Thompson, Bogut and Green. New coach Steve Kerr has brought an improved offensive scheme and an open mind to his early tenure, and he has proved willing to make adjustments based on feedback from the Warriors' analysts
This essentially explains the problem with the offense. I've not seen much of the Bickerstaff games so I haven't noticed the sagging off of Harden, but I've noticed the paint packed when the has the ball.
Great points, and I agree with you, I mean right now their shot is so bad you just have to focus on the paint.
We are in the middle of a team-wide shooting slump, the likes of which I've never seen. Given that, it's hardly surprising that we have been losing. Do you know of any team in the modern game's 3 point era that has shot the ball so poorly doing well? I don't think that makes Harden and Howard bad leaders. When Lebron and Dirk both had bad finals,everyone said that they weren't leaders. Later they won and all of a sudden they were leaders. Harden and Howard led a team to the Western Conference finals. We beat the Clippers when the Spurs couldn't. You could bring in any coach or change out any player for anyone else, but if we continue to shoot this badly from the perimeter then we won't win. You simply can't win in today's NBA shooting sub 30% from behind the arc. I know it's more fun to speculate that Howard is broken down, Harden is fat, lazy, parties too much and is totally dependent on the ref but the truth is that we are in a shooting slump. I know that very simplistic to say but unfortunately it's also very difficult to fix. As I mentioned earlier, I've never seen an entire team go into a shooting slump like this before.
How do you explain the defensive slump? And the Howard criticisms are due to his playing once every back to back, which is irrelevant of our shooting percentages. We weren't known as an offensive juggernaut last year either. We had Harden but our system on offense was not the same as GS, San Antonio, nor Atlanta's. McHale didn't get fired because we were in a shooting slump. Players were straight up quitting on defense with zero communication.
indeed. the shooting slump is what's on the surface. it's the effect, or one of the effects, not the cause.
I was addressing the offensive issues, but the defensive issues are certainly there too. I attribute the defensive problems to two factors: 1) Size - we are really small right now without D-Mo, especially when Dwight is out. When Jones goes to the bench we either have to play Harrell or go small. On most occasions we've gone small. 2) Lineup adjustments - We've sucked so badly shooting the ball the we've had to try and generate offense by playing more offensive players at the same time. Early in the year we saw Thorton, Harden and Lawson all in the starting lineup. This plays back into the size, but we've gone small to try and get our best offensive players on the floor. In addition to making us small, having to try and manufacture points has also caused us to play guys out of position. For example, Ariza is a good defender as a SF but not so at the PF position where he's had to play in our small ball lineups.Harden has been having to guard Ibaka (though he's done that in the past), Gallinari and other guys much bigger than him. You may not have considered us an offensive juggernaut last season, but we were light years better than this year: Points per game : last year: #6 this year: #20 Effective FG%: Last year: #7 this year #23 True Shooting %: Last Year: #8 this year: #25 Offensive Efficiency: Last Year : #12 this Year: #27 That's a huge difference.
I would say that a statistical approach to player acquisition is probably pretty useful. However, trying to build a playstyle around it is foolhardy considering how things change from game-to-game. You may be able to recruit some excellent soldiers with it, but you need a dynamite commander to actually adapt and utilize them in the most efficient manner. That's what's been lacking. Everyone has underperforming under weak, slow, uncreative coaching.
I assume that you are referring to the 3's and layups philosophy? Do you realize that SA and GS use pretty much the same philosophy? Practically every team in the NBA is now focused on 3 point shooting. It's not just the Rockets.
The OP's statements about heart, intangibles etc. can be considered valid criticisms of a heavily analytics based evaluation of players. This however is not. IF YOU MISS 10 3's WILL YOU MAKE 10 mid range 2's? ust because you can't hit a 3 means the players will hit the mid-range shot wtf, unless you're a freak like LMA most players hit 3's more than mid range shots. Analytics aren't an either/or option, a smart FO will mix it with traditional evaluation, something that the Spurs have done seamlessly but which every Moreyball hater ignores. With Morey though I think he had the mindset that talent>everything, if you will see his previous comments he says things like "We get talent first then worry about how they will play together 2nd" or "I don't care about 99.99% bust rate I care about star potential" etc. This is in contrast to Pops who weeds out guys who don't follow his system even if they are talented. Even if he is a wizard Morey is human and still has room for improvement, hopefully the implosion of the Rox against all expectations has been an eye opener for him and the entire FO. People here are always so quick to fire people for screw ups, but if you think about it the screw up has already been done, even if you fire the guy now you can't take back letting JSmoove go, letting Harden get fat, trading for TLawson without monitoring their offseason work and mandating 3 pt shooting drills for every shooter on the team. However if the person learns and improves from the screw up and you fire him, that means you "paid" for the improvement of the guy but then you didn't reap the rewards from the price you paid. Like with Mchale, I honestly think the state the team is now is just due to a ruined training camp, if we kept him around then we would have had an improved coach. Instead, Les/Morey fired him and now we have to start from the beginning again.
