[ClutchFans] Samuel Dalembert's Contract: A Brief Analysis

Yeah, what he said.

Here's what I see in the Dwight sweepstakes. If Orlando waits until the end of the season, Dwight controls everything. He can move for nothing. They have to play on his terms.

So, where does the bidding start and end at the trade deadline? Well, the Lakers are going to have to give Pau and Bynum and take back a load of salary to get Dwight. Because if they don't, then the next best deal may be dealing with the Rockets. We can offer way more than New Jersey in terms of a trade. I don't think there is a team willing to give up a potential lottery pick without getting Dwight committed to an extension. I don't think Dwight signs an extension unless it is with Orlando, New Jersey, or LAL or perhaps Dallas (but they don't have anything of trade value). If we can offer up this draft pick option in trade, we could possibly present the best offer to Orlando for Dwight if we are willing to trade for him without getting him to sign an extension.

 

How many other owners operate like Paul Allen? He's waived/absorbed 3 multi-year max contracts in the last several years.

 

jus so sick of hearing people b**** about how were 'stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity' without tanking.... Anybody that wants their team to tank has 'lost their way' as a fan....

 

You are right, we shouldn't tank.

We should blow this puppy up.

Trade away Scola and K-Mart. They are the biggest hindrance to us totally sucking right now. Without them, we don't have to tank. We can play hard every night and still lose!!!!

 

good read....thx

 

Yeah... if Orlando is talking about trading Dwight (or Nets trading Williams even), I think we have the upper hand compared to the LAs and Dallas' of the world. Lowry is a better young prospect than anyone any of the other teams would offer, and the amount of picks we have is better than LA/Dallas as well.

I'm not saying that would be a fair trade for him, but just saying LA or Dallas can't trump us.

 

Bima,

thanks for having a giant brain.

Regards,

clutchfans

 

The thing I wonder is, does Orlando even want Bynum and Pau for Dwight and Turkoglu? Regardless of how many more frills are attached on either end, that would be the gist of the deal. Orlando isn't winning a championship with that return, and they would be equally if not more so tied down financially with Pau requiring 38M in the two years after and Bynum on the hook for a 16M team option. It's the same argument about why Stern vetoed our deal. Rebuilding teams need to tear it down and rebuild, not get decent return in veteran talent. Utah has had the perfect model for this in the time since they've traded Deron. If I'm Orlando I'm not even considering taking on more money, why not just let Dwight go? It would serve the same end.

Second, I don't quite understand this point about Dwight having all the leverage yet. Lebron and Bosh were the first two max players I've ever seen that knowingly turned down millions to leave as unrestricted FA's. And that was only because of issues with the salary cap in the old CBA; at the very last second, both Cleveland and Toronto finally relented and granted them sign-and-trades rather than get nothing back in return at all.

I don't know how the new CBA is going to treat max players who want to jump ship without a SnT, but I imagine it's worse than before in terms of the amount of money they'd be leaving on the table. So yes, technically it could go down to the wire and Dwight could play this dance again between a team with cap space like New Jersey and try to force Orlando into a SnT. But given the increased ramifications of not doing a sign and trade, my guess is that the original team has more leverage now than it did before. As a last point, if he has that much power over Orlando, what incentive is there for a team like the Rockets to risk it all on a two month rental when he'll just leave us in the exact same way? Can we play hardball even better and just say "sign with us or lose money elsewhere"? We'd be fools to believe it.

 

Orlando needs to trade Dwight to Minny behind his back. Future picks for Rubio, wes johnson, randolph, whatever...

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7303114/everything-ever-want-know-new-nba-labor-deal

Well, I can tell you a few things about the new CBA when it comes to Dwight Howard. If he just leaves outright, he'd get a 4 year deal at the max (whatever that is for him) and only 4.5% raises each year. If he signs with Orlando, it's 5 years with 7.5% raises. You are potentially leaving 30 million on the table by not staying in Orlando.

One of the big differences between what Lebron/Bosh did and what Howard can do is that you can't sign and trade using bird rights any more. So if you sign/trade a player he's going to get the 4 year/4.5% raises contract. Lebron/Bosh were able to sign a bird rights deal and then get traded so they didn't leave as much money on the table.

On the other hand, extend and trades are still "legal". I don't know what the % are for that but I imagine it's higher than if he were to just get signed and traded.

 

That link says starting in year 3 of the new CBA though. Does it apply to Howard? I feel like it would have been talked about more had it been true because it's a huge deal and he'd be losing a lot of money doing an "extend-and-trade" or signing with a new team outright. Good to know though because it puts a lot of power back in the hands of the incumbent team trying to deal the disgruntled star.

 

No, not really.

The first time one of these superstars walks for nothing, the incumbent teams will go back to doing what Utah did with DWill and avoiding what happened to Cleveland and Toronto.

 

The thing about that Portland deal was that they only took on one additional year of salary to get Brandon Roy, since Theo Ratliff had 2 years left on his deal as opposed to 3 for LaFrentz. In the Baron Davis deal, they have the same number of years left, Baron just has an extra $7M on his deal.

This has been Dallas' strategy for some time now; take on an extra year of salary when swapping max contracts to get an upgrade in talent. The team turned Christian Laettner into Juwan Howard into Lafrentz and Van Exel, turned Van Exel into Antawn Jamison, LaFrentz into Antoine Walker, Walker into Terry, Jamison into the #5 Pick (Harris), Harris into Kidd, and they also traded Dampier's unguaranteed year for Chandler.

So it's clear that the cost for getting a #1 is not that much, and if a team with cap space was willing to absorb some salary, they could get a very good player back. Les Alexander seems to be willing to spend heavily on second rounders; with the new CBA limiting cash outlays to $3M per season, the Rockets will probably have a decent amount of cash lying around in their operating budget since they won't be able to buy up second rounders. Maybe they won't be able to swallow max contracts, but they did seem to be willing to take on Elton Brand's contract for the Sixers' pick a couple years ago.

 

I think the year 3 thing applies to tax-paying teams acquiring free-agents. Pretty sure that all sign-and-trades are now 4-years, 4.5% raises.

Extend-and-trades have become completely worthless: they are now limited to 3 total years, including those still on the contract, and 4.5% raises. Furthermore, they cannot sign a player to an extension for 6 months after trading for them. So for example, if Dwight Howard were to extend-and-trade with the Nets, they would only be allowed to offer him a 1-year extension on top of his existing deal. It makes far more financial sense for him to opt out and sign a 5-year, $100M bird-rights contract with his new team. In essence, every team trading for a superstar now will have to take them at their word that they will resign after testing free agency for seconds.

 

Thanks Bima,
Great Read.. Can't wait too see what SammyD can do in the playoffs even if we are the 8th team there.

 

Re: Why the Delay?

Have any sources confirmed that the Rockets were indeed trying to do a S&T?

Could the Rockets have tried to re-negotiate the deal after finding out they got played?

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Fox Sports’ Chris Tomasson reported last night Dalembert was anticipating a return to Sacramento for a second season.

But Sports Illustrated’s Sam Amick says the Kings were caught off guard by Tomasson’s story.

http://www.cowbellkingdom.com/2011/12/21/kings-lose-samuel-dalembert-bidding-war-to-houston/