Mathews is the X-factor for them. If his scoring is going, Harden will either have to play defense or it will be a defensive nightmare for us.
I feel good about our chances, but I wouldn't count on Lillard shooting 38% in this series, or Asik keeping up with LMA. It could happen, but not every game. Might be a good idea to have Parsons guard Matthews and Harden guard Batum. Harden is better at guarding bigger guys who aren't great shooters. Parsons is better at guarding penetration from the perimeter.
One thing I didn't put in the preview but is worth noting... it was actually Harden guarding Aldridge down the stretch of the last game, and it didn't go that badly. He torched Parsons in the post when we first went with the small lineup, but then McHale switched to James, and he actually did a respectable job using his bulk to offer resistance. Now, I'm sure McHale hopes to never use Harden on Aldridge again, but it's worth keeping in mind in the event things get desperate. On that front, I think it's going to be imperative for the Rockets to avoid bad starts. The one drawback to extensive Asik-Howard usage is that it's not a "come from behind" lineup. That's why we didn't see it in March... foul trouble prevented it in the first half, and the Rockets were losing by such a big margin in the fourth that they had to take all the offensive firepower they could get. Asik is a potentially big piece in this series, but the Rockets probably can't use him as much as they'd like if they build themselves a deficit.
Isn't it also concerning though that with Asik and Howard going up against the relatively mobile duo of Aldridge and Lopez, we could lose a lot of potential fast break opportunities? I'm also worried because packing the paint can help, but Portland are generally happy and successful from mid and long range - so what's the point packing the paint? I understand that the Asik-LMA matchup worked well once, but it's possible we're being fooled by the 1-game sample. LMA is a high volume player who takes a lot of jumpers so it's not rare for him to have terrible performances against average defense. It could be that his shot was just not falling. Anyway, I enjoyed the blog post, excellent recap/analysis.
If they are starting Asik-Howard and having bad starts, that would kind of imply Asik-Howard isn't the way to go. It is a four game series, though (he said confidently). No doubt we will see several different lineups depending on what Portland is doing to attack or defend.
Regarding the match-up between Bev and Lillard; is it just me being paranoid or did Bev not seem to move as he normally would? He looked liked he was struggling with his normal mobility. Anyone know what is current health status is? I get that he's cleared to play but is he possibly forcing the issue? Thanks to the OP for posting the article. Much appreciated.
If we are gonna play twin towers, then that paint is gonna be clogged on our end. No matter what, though, I still love our chances against the team that has relied the most in the NBA on mid-range jumpshots this year. When was the last time that was a model for championship success? Like, 1975?
Howard is athletic and mobile - Asik is not. Aldridge has historically performed poorly against players with size and bulk. (remember how Chuck Hayes with his lower center of gravity just caused fits for Aldridge despite giving up 1/2 foor in height?). Howard has the athleticism to keep up with Aldridge, but he doesnt have the same "sand in his pants" the way Asik does. If Howard could use his length and speed to counter Aldridge and his leaping ability to contest shots SMARTLY (no going for pump fakes and getting cheap fouls) then the Rockets should be fine. Lopez is mobile but Asik will be able to guard him very well while keeping him off the glass (where Lopez does his most damage) Asik on top of that is a much better (emphasis on the much better) outlet passer than Howard. Howard can be the big that runs the court on the fast break as Asik outlets out to one of the guards or forwards to get the break started. If the Rockets busted out a TT lineup I would actually prefer Howard to start the game on Aldridge and then rotate Asik on - so you give Aldridge different styles of defenders and keep him off balance and frustrated. With the style Portland plays with a high volume of 3s and long jumpers - keeping Lopez and Batum off the offensive glass is going to be the major key: Nov 5th meeting - Rockets 116-101 - Rockets 18 - 5 in 2nd chance points Dec 12th - Blazers 111-104 - Blazers 17-15 in 2nd chance points Jan 20th - Rockets 126-113 - Rockets 23-17 2nd chance points March 9th - Rockets 118-113 (OT) - Blazers - 21-15 In the 2 games the Rockets won solidly against Portland they had the edge in second chance points. This is big for a few reasons (obviously being able to score more points) but also shows they are doing a better job at rebounding for the game and playing with more energy. The game Portland won and nearly won they had the edge in second chance points. But given their length in the front court (LMA, Lopez and Batum) keeping them off the offensive glass will be the biggest thing. Rockets already turn the ball over so much that giving the other team even more opportunities to score will kill this team. Jones has played poorly against his hometown Blazers this season - IMO this is one of the situations where he probably wont play so much and even though the rockets are light years ahead offensively when he starts compared to Asik - going to a TT lineup early is something McHale should consider especially if Lopez or Aldridge are having a field day on the offensive glass. Howard or Asik can only do so much by themselves and you dont want to play both together for extended periods of time given the ineptitude on offense by Asik (leaving Howard to face multiple double teams). This should be a good matchup for the Rockets - they do match up well with portland and given portland's inexperience in the playoffs this should help the Rockets as well. We'll see how hurt Bev is trying to contain Lillard again but I feel after the last game and the vocal attacks on one another that Lillard will get the benefit of the doubt a lot in the playoffs. Jeremy Lin will have to play at a level much higher than he has over the last 3 months - and consider that Lin has yet to really play in the playoffs at all (was hurt last year and didnt play and didnt play with NY the year before) he should have a much shorter leash on him if he tries to make the same plays and creates the same unnecessary turnovers - which may shatter his confidence even further. It would be great to see him take it to the next level come playoff time because the Rockets when healthy are pretty hard to beat when he is 'on' but he just hasnt shown that consistency all season long. Garcia will have to play well and same with Dmo. Dmo's energy on defense has been great lately but he is going to have to be a force on the glass and making sure he rebounds everything in his sight when he is in the game. Overall I am excited to get this series started
Bulls in 96/97 (1st) and 97/98 (5th) I don't know if you'd count the 98/99 Spurs (11th) or the 11/12 Heat (11th) From this blog post.
Got my tickets, ready to rock! Bout to head to lunch with my SI magazine to read about P Bev! Finally this subscription has some use, haven't read a single issue since the feature on the Rockets back in October.
Great read The Cat. Hey I don't see McHale going with the Twin tower lineup to start with. He might play that lineup during some stretches but Jones will IMO continue to get the start.
The Rockets have never lost a playoff series to the Blazers. Rockets are 3-0 all time vs Blazers in the Playoffs. 1987, 1994, 2009. Im fairly certain they will not lose this year either. Punch that ticket to round 2. About Round 2, if we play the Spurs, the Rockets have never lost a playoff series to the Spurs. The Rockets are 3-0 all time vs Spurs in the Playoffs. 1980, 1981, 1995. The perfect record will be quite a challenge to uphold should we play them this year, but it can be done as we match up well with them, seeing as were 4-0 reg season series. Punch that ticket to the Conf finals?
What are yalls thoughts on possibly having Howard/Asik/Jones in at the same time like the Lakers title teams? I think it would kill the spacing too much (especially because Odom/Gasol were much better shooters), but going up against the top rebounding team in the league it might be a nice experiment to try out.
Now is not the time for Mchale to get cute with the lineup. Our offense is all about spacing. You play jones/asik/Howard together will result in terrible spacing.
I was thinking the same thing about Batum and Matthews as you mentioned. This would also have the added benefit of making it easier to put pressure on the Blazers at the offensive end.
Shot less 3s, go to the rim more. As Grantland's Zach Lowe recently detailed, the Blazers defense is designed to take away three-pointers at the expense of giving up more looks at the rim. Houston's offense is designed to get a ton of shots from deep and at the rim. The results are what you'd expect—the Rockets are shooting just 32 percent from deep against the Blazers, but they're scoring over 56 points per game in the paint. Houston's also feasting on the offensive glass, grabbing around a third of its misses against Portland.
If the shots are not falling, pass the ball to Howard more down the post. - against the Blazers, those looks have been dynamite. Houston is shooting 58 percent (!!) on post-ups against Portland, per Synergy Sports Technology. ------------------------------ On D, force Portland to settle for more long range jumpers and 3s. - The Blazers have scored the NBA's third-lowest amount of points in the paint, and a good chunk of the shots they do get at the rim come from offensive rebounds or LaMarcus Aldridge post-ups. And as Lowe wrote, those have been pretty ineffective over the last few months. - Aldridge has taken more mid-range jumpers than the entire Rockets squad and has hit 42 percent of them. That's a passable number, but not nearly good enough to justify it being such a big part of the offense, even if it does open up outside shots for Portland's wings. Aldridge has put up some big numbers against the Rockets, but that's more a result of him averaging nearly 24 shots in those games than anything else—he's posting a true shooting percentage of just 50 percent against them. ------------------------------------------ This article from BR actually gave very good insight about this matchup. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...il-blazers-do-not-want-to-see-in-nba-playoffs
Beverly tore a meniscus, his mobility will be affected. He probably should not be playing and wouldnt be if the playoffs weren't starting. They evidently feel that he cant mess it up any worse by playing, but rest assured he goes in for surgery the day after they get knocked out.
