[ClutchFans] Podcast: What in the world is wrong with the Houston Rockets?

What FTW doesn't get is neither Miami or ATL will do those deals.

There is not a deal out there for Dwight that makes this team better.

 

I don't know what deals are out there. Neither do you for that matter despite how much you'd like to think you have inside sauces.

The point is Dwight at that ridiculous contract and continued decline not to mention the sever chemistry problems with Harden is not going to make this team better this season or going forward. Guy is paid $22M and hardly puts up 6-7 shots a game. No alley oops, do P n R, very few dunks. Might as well deal and use that cap space wisely.

 

Some observations:
Rockets have gone from complete crap under McHale to average under Bickerstaff.
There's essentially no improvement on defense though. Keep in mind the Rockets were 8th in DRTG last year.
While Harden probably deserves some of the blame, a big issue is the poor defensive rebounding.
That was "acceptable" at the beginning when Dwight wasn't playing back-to-backs and D-Mo was injured, but there's no excuse for that now.
Our offense went from horrible to amazing, and the Rockets are still playing Moreyball with almost identical shot selection.
The main improvement in our offense is 3P%, but it's not because of better looks (at least based on defender distance).
We were essentially just "unlucky" with our 3s at the beginning of the year, and our 3P% has mean-reverted, which probably isn't the result of the coaching change.

 

Agree.
Defensive rebounding + Turnovers.
Defensive rebounding is not only the job of the bigs. It's the job of all the team.

Anyone know where we can find stats of rebounding opportunities? Bballholic?

 

You are advocating going to the lottery this year. If you think that's what's best I understand that. But please don't pretend that we can trade Dwight and become a better team and make the playoffs this season.

 

My goal is to win it ALL. I do not see us winning it all this season no matter what trades happen. You just cannot when you're two best players are not on the same wavelength after playing together for 2+ years.

Thus, I am not against trading Dwight and his monstrous contract for the best deal out there and doing our best this season while setting us up better for next season onwards. I still think there will be quite a few teams interested in Dwight and we can get a fairly good return. Younger players with significantly more upside.

Do you think we can win it all this season with Dwight and Harden and their on court issues? If not, what's the point of keeping Dwight and his unfavorable contract?

 

Look at my sig. That's what I believe. This team, as currently constructed, is not a champion.

I think the odds are very good that unless we make significant moves we are going to struggle to finish 7-8 in the West. And that is a waste of time in my view.

The difference is I don't see any trades of Dwight out there that set us up in a better position than his cap space this summer. So, worst case scenario, I'd rather have that cap space, than any contracts Dwight is going to bring back. Because if we trade Dwight for players on long-term deals or players like Horford that we have to re-sign at max money that aren't as effective as Dwight defensively, then we're just spinning our wheels.

There's another thing involved here called championship culture. Teams that want to be champions don't trade away superstar players, especially players that took a year less to sign away from their previous team with them. That sets a precedent that all future superstar free agents look at. It sets this team up to be exclusively James' team and any other superstars that are considering signing here would downgrade the opportunity here realizing they are all secondary to James and could be traded away to a bad situation, to a team or a city that they do not want to be in, at a moment's notice.

That's not the kind of culture we should set here.

The only way we should trade Dwight is if Dwight asks us to trade him. And I don't see that happening. But let's say it does. So, where does he want to go? You see....you can't just trade him to the Sixers if he asks you to trade him without changing the culture here. If you move out to basketball Siberia where he has to miss the playoffs and a chance to compete for a championship, to a team he doesn't want to play for, and you're sending the same message to future potential max free agents that I just described above. It's the same scenario. You now have to find the team that Dwight wants to go play for and cut a deal. And those deals never work favorably for the team trading the superstar away. Howard wants to go to Miami. Ok. Do you really think MIA has any reason to offer up Winslow in that deal?? Nope. Why should they? They know we're stuck.



So, what are our choices moving forward?

1. We can tank. Move out long-term salary for youngsters and future picks, clear out the cap, let Harden sit, let Dwight sit (or trade Dwight if he wants to go, but only for expirings/youngsters/picks), and ride it out to a lottery finish and see if we catch magic with the ping-pong balls. Then re-tool this summer using massive cap space and our trade assets we have acquired by moving out Ariza, Brewer, Beverley, and McDaniels....everybody that is on a long-term salary.

2. We can re-group and make some moves that could put us closer to being legit contenders. Those moves don't include moving Dwight out. We simply aren't going to get a more valuable player in trade for Dwight. You keep Dwight and Harden and you make moves that could possibly put us in position to get lucky again in the playoffs.

What moves are those?? Well....look at the Warriors and Spurs and figure out what moves we need to make to legitimately compete with them. Right now, big bigs are cheaper in trade. Teams are going small. They're dumping big bigs. You've got Noah sitting in Chicago, Nene sitting in Washington, Hibbert sitting in LA, and now probably Jefferson sitting in Charlotte, not to mention the Clips supposedly looking to unload Smoove. I say supposedly because I can't believe they are stupid enough to want to move him.

So...knowing big bigs are cheaper to come by....and knowing that we have serious defensive issues in the paint, at the rim, and on the glass....I'd think we could put together some kind of trade for either Hibbert, Noah, or Nene to ADD TO DWIGHT. We acquire one of those guys and they stay healthy and you've got your defensive paint problems and rebounding issues resolved. Does that mean you can beat the Dubs or Spurs? That move in itself probably won't do it but it'll put us a lot closer.

Then you go find a guy that can both defend on the perimeter effectively, and make a play, finish, and dish on the other end. Because the next problem we have with this team is turnovers and a lack of playmaking besides Harden.

Then you go get another shooter/scorer.

We get those 3 things and we compete this season. We've got a chance, a small chance, to win it all. In the process of getting those 3 things you clear the books of long-term deals that will make it difficult for us to have max cap space next summer. Then you approach Dwight about opting in on his deal so we've got him at a fixed cost for next season and don't have him sitting there absorbing $30-$31 million of cap space when we need to conduct free agent business.

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It is very clear to me we cannot and should not trade Dwight unless Dwight specifically requests a trade. And if Dwight does request a trade it's probably going to be best to go to the lottery at that point.

 

Found a new addition to my sig

 

McHale's record with the Rockets was not 4-7.

You make your own argument look stupid.

 

A truly great post - one that goes to the heart of what's wrong with both the attitude and direction of this team. Which is why I, too, don't see them winning a championship as currently constructed.

 

Start Capela next to Dwight and find a true combo guard next to Harden and grind your way into the playoffs. Dissapointingly I feel that Bickerstaff is still this teams weakest link in a playoff series, but once you're there anything can happen.