[ClutchFans] Podcast - The Dwight Howard Trade Aftermath

I would suggest we trust Morey. Just joking LOL

My belief is that while luck is the most vital component in building a team, luck also happens to favor those who are prepared,and Morey has been preparing since Tmac/Yao/Artest fall flat on its face. Its the main reason why I'm deep entrenched into the "Morey the wizard" camp, its because if I can see the progress the team has made, even if other keep yelling "14th again, DM sucks !" in the boards.

As of now Morey has been b****slapped by FAs around 4 times since the Yao era. While most people will look at that as massive failures (and a sign that DM doesn't know how to handle/convince people), the truth is if you look at events that transpired you'll see the difference in bargaining position over the years.

Bosh b****slap: Zero assets to offer Toronto. Morey was totally dependent on Bosh signing with us of his own free will, and the only asset he could give was an ipad. Asset grade: F

Amare b****slap: Could have offered some assets for Amare, but it would have wiped us out. IMHO apart from the knee scare (DM has balls of steel and would have bet Amare would have stayed healthy), I think part of the reason we didn't do Amare deal was because we didn't have anything to build around Amare, and since his salary would have killed the cap we wouldn't be doing anything relevant. Asset grade: C

Melo b****slap: We had enough to trade for Melo and still build around him, but we got beat by a superior offer. Melo was in Dwight's shoes before, and Morey was pushing to trade for him in hopes that Melo wouldn't be able to turn down the max. Denver was totally agnostic where Melo ends up, they just want the best return possible. NY offered everything and their unborn child, so Melo went to NY instead. Asset grade: B

Dwight b****slap: Everyone knew Houston could put out the best package for Dwight. In this case, IMHO Morey was the one who walked away. The offer was so insultingly low for the top C in the league that I think Morey felt the dice was loaded too much that he didn't even bother (although to be fair even his lowball of Morris, PP, one of White/Jones, bad contracts AND Toronto Lottery pick was still better). Asset grade: A

What does this say though? I think this means that Morey is looking at Lamb, Parsons and DMo and saying these three are worth more than a Dwight with flight risk. People will scoff and say no one on the team is equal to the great Dwight Howard (rental), but IIRC in the Melo proposal to Denver all bets were off, and Melo also made it clear he would be leaving the team to go to NY after his contract expires.

So to sum it all up, I think rather than rely on the lottery gods to gift him with the franchise pick, I think Morey has been trying to make his own luck by collecting assets and trying to get predatory, and I think he struck gold in this year's draft. Debbie downers will point out past SL greats like JL3 or whoever, but since when did we have guys who rank top 5 in the promising rookies rank of popular NBA sites? I think the guys we have are different, it shows in their body of work Pre-NBA, and it will show once they get on the NBA court.

 

Hard to accomplish when teams always insist on top 3 lottery protection when trading their first round pick.

 

The problem with the lottery is even if you win it (less than a 25% chance of winning it) then the odds of you drafting a championship winning player are about 10%. Combine those two percentages and teams like Charlotte that are playing for the #1 pick, playing for the worst record in the league, have a less than a 2.5% chance of drafting a guy that can lead them to a championship.

Here's the list of first round draft picks that have been traded that could turn into top 5 lottery picks. Granted, some of them have a small chance of going there but still, there's the chance. And likely several of them will materialize into top 5 picks.

2013 first round draft pick to Chicago
Charlotte's own 2013 1st round draft pick to Chicago (top-12 protected in the 2013 Draft, top-10 protected in 2014, top-8 protected in 2015 and unprotected in the 2016 Draft.) [Charlotte - Chicago, 2/18/2010]

2013 first round draft pick to Houston
Dallas' own 2013 first round draft pick to Houston via the L.A. Lakers ( top 20 protected in 2013, top 20 protected in 2014, top 20 protected in 2015, top 20 protected in 2016, top 20 protected in 2017 and unprotected in the 2018 Draft). [Dallas - L.A. Lakers, 12/11/2011 and then Houston-L.A. Lakers 3/15/2012]

2013 first round draft pick to Charlotte
Detroit's own 2013 1st round pick to Charlotte (Top-14 Protected in 2013 Draft, top-8 protected in 2014, top-1 protected in 2015 and Unprotected in the 2016 Draft). [Charlotte-Detroit, 06/26/2012]

2015 first round draft pick to Phoenix
The L.A. Lakers own 2015 1st round pick to Phoenix. [L.A. Lakers-Phoenix, 7/11/2012]

2013 first round draft pick to Cleveland
Miami's own 2013 1st round draft pick to Cleveland (top-10 protected in the 2013 Draft, top-10 protected in 2014, and unprotected in the 2015 Draft.) [Cleveland - Miami, 7/9/2010]

2015 first round draft pick to Cleveland
Miami's own 1st round draft pick to Cleveland in the "First Allowable Draft" (top 10 protected until the 2017 draft at which it will be unprotected in the

2017 draft). The First Allowable draft shall be the draft that occurs two years following the year in which Miami satisfies its first obligation to convey a future first round draft pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers. [Cleveland - Miami, 7/9/2010]

2014 first round draft pick to Denver
New York's own 2014 first round pick to Denver. [Denver - Minnesota - New York, 2/22/2011]

2016 first round draft pick to Denver
Denver has the right to swap it's own 2016 1st round pick with New York's own 2016 1st round pick. [Denver - Minnesota - New York, 2/22/2011]

2013 first round draft pick to Charlotte
Portland's own 2013 1st round pick to Charlotte (top 12 protected in the 2013 draft, top 12 protected in 2014, top 12 protected in 2015, and unprotected in the 2016 Draft). [Charlotte - Portland, 2/24/2011]

2013 first round draft pick to Houston
Toronto's own 2013 1st round pick to Houston (Top-3 Protected and 15-30 Protected in the 2013 Draft, top-2 protected and 15-30 protected in 2014, top-2 protected and 15-30 protected in 2015, top-1 Protected and 15-30 protected in 2016, top-1 protected and 15-30 Protected in 2017 and unprotected in the 2018 Draft. [Houston-Toronto, 7/11/2012]



When it became obvious to me last season in about January, that we were not going to be a playoff team, that we were actually a worse team than the 2010-11 team, then I thought it would be in our best interest to tank. It was a lockout shortened, abbreviated season. I thought we should start trading guys away at the deadline and go ahead and tank for a high lottery pick because of the fact that it was a shortened season.

However, the idea of tanking to win the lottery for several years in a row.....I just don't like it. For every OKC you can think of...............I can name 20 teams that did that and went absolutely nowhere. It's simply not a strategy that has a high percentage chance of working. Yes, OKC did it. Yes, they got lucky. Yes, they actually got lucky to get the #2 ping pong ball instead of the #1 ping pong ball. They actually got lucky losing the lottery...and being in the same position Charlotte was in this draft. Yet, now we have to wait to see if MKG turns out to be as good as KD. Big question mark there. Tanking is just not a strategy that works the vast majority of the time.

 

good post - agree...

 

Good Post. Rep'd.

I do think that Morey had a very good offer for Howard, which was significantly watered down when he heard from Howard's camp the infamous "I will walk to Dallas" once my contract expires. That was quite a bit insulting to the Rockets front office.

Anyways, this is water under the bridge now. I am really looking forward to the pre-season and regular season games and see how our yuts develop.

 

I would just say that you have to get a little Lucky in this league to win a championship, especially if you're not a destination city. But you've also got to put yourself in position to get lucky.

Sure OKC got lucky with their draft picks, but they built from the ground up instead of trying to sign vets to be competitive. That allowed them to draft franchise players. Dallas won a championship because they built around a franchise player they drafted, and if they are able to attract an allstar free agent, it will be in large part because of Dirk.

Houston doesn't go anywhere without first drafting a franchise player. As I said in an earlier post, the only team I can remember winning a championship without first drafting a franchise player is Detroit. So Houston has to put themselves in a position to get lucky in the draft. That means being willing to be a bottom feeder for a yer or two (I prefer to call it a developing team or rebuilding team). If tanking = developing young talent and putting yourself in position to draft a franchise player, sign me up. It's exactly what Houston has to do.

 

I get your sentiment.

I would say LAL is a mere technicality based on NBA procedural rules. Shaq would have been a Laker before the Lakers traded on draft night for the rights to a high school kid that was far from a franchise player at that point if he was allowed to sign a contract sooner.

 

The Rockets do need to build the franchise around a top 5 pick. Some say you have to be lucky but look at the facts. The Hornets draft Davis one year after losing CP3. The Cavs get Irving one year after losing James. The Wizards get Wall one year after the Arenas-gate debacle. Even the Clippers finally get it right in the draft with Griffin. The Bulls go from the dregs of the NBA to the best record after drafting Rose. You have to put yourself in the game to acquire a top lottery pick. During most of this this time the Rockets have been meandering in the middle of the pack although Morey has made some savvy moves to acquire assets. Some may say look at a team like the Clippers who spent so many years in the lottery but Morey is not the Clippers. Have faith that even if the Rockets don't win the lottery he can still turn a high pick into something good, even if it's dealing the pick ala Danny Ainge and the Celtics when they acquired Ray Allen and KG for a lottery pick and young players.

Record wise next season might be a little difficult but am looking forward to watching the progression of the young guys. I much prefer this route than trading the young players and picks for a one year rental of Dwight.

 

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/24/the-inbounds-houston-we-have-a-solution/

The Inbounds: Houston, We Have A Solution
Matt Moore
Aug 24, 2012, 5:54 PM EDT


Maybe no team will have the kind of predicted-win variance from fans and experts this season than the Houston Rockets. Some think that they’re going to be downright awful, a wretched mishmash of forwards and injured guards, built around a lack of size and no real starpower. Others think it’s entirely possible this team can swing for the playoffs. A young, versatile core with Jeremy Lin making the plays, a defense built around Omer Asik, and if even one of the three rookies breaks out, look out. They could massively exceed expectations or completely crash and burn into the ground prompting a full-scale re-reboot, and you wouldn’t really be surprised at either, nor would you be shocked at a good-not-great late lottery finish, typically referred to as the “Rockets” finish every year.

They’ve got four separate gambles going on. First, that Jeremy Lin is the player he was for two weeks in February and not the player he was, you know, any other time. That in the right system, with the confidence and what he learned about himself last year, he can be the kind of playmaking, odds-defying producer who set the league on fire. Second, that one of the rookies will work out. If Jeremy Lamb works out? Great. An athletic two-guard who can fill up the scoreboard and whose length on the perimeter provides the anchor of the defense on the edge. If it’s Terrence Jones, a relentless inside attacker with elite athleticism who can also step out and hit a few shots (probably more than he should take), a kind of Josh Smith 2.0 model? Neat. If it’s Royce White, a combo-forward who passes like Bird and leaps like LeBron, fantastic. Just one of them has to pull it off.

Three, that Kevin McHale’s defensive system can take the spare parts and make them into a unit. McHale struggled last year on several fronts. Scheme, execution, and most especially, player relations. Kevin Martin is in the doghouse, Luis Scola was given the amnesty heave-ho, and Kyle Lowry is inexplicably a Raptor. McHale has to take a team with Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, three rookies, Donatas Motiejunas, and Chandler Parsons, and get them to communicate, attack, and rotate.

It is not a small hill to climb.

And finally, the most likely gamble, and maybe the most important. That somewhere in this combination of guys is the ability to trade for a major player and that the other players will fit around him.

GM Daryl Morey has missed out on the stars. There’s just no getting around it. From Carmelo Anthony to Chris Paul to Dwight Howard, he’s oh-fer since the end of the Yao Ming era in drawing a major player to Houston’s traffic jams. He’s constantly built the team ready to acquire and take on a star, and he’s managed to field competitive non-playoff teams without sacrificing payroll or draft picks. But the criticism of him is valid until he’s able to schmooze a big name to buy in, and be able to pull off the deal to acquire him.

He’s certainly got the tools. The Rockets can offer any team that has to ditch its best player a combination of Kevin Martin’s contract, extra draft picks, and young players, without cleaning out the cupboard. Especially if they need forwards.

Lord, can the Rockets offer forwards.

So if the Rockets can just find that situation that’s ripe, and there seems to be a superstar moving every year in this league now (and they’ve run out of big markets to move to), they can snag the guy. And they’ll have so much left over, they’ll be able to build right away. A team with a good center in either Asik or Motiejunas (neither of which are locks but it’s possible both could be retained in trade and that one would work out), a capable point guard in Lin, and the wings to fit around the player means that there’s no need to build up, no spending splurge needed like in New Jersey or Miami.

The bad news? They’re not the only one. The Sixers just got their guy in Andrew Bynum, so they’re off the list. But Denver, Utah, Phoenix, Cleveland all have similar situations and the ability to take on deals. It’s a stronger market now, and the Rockets have the most, but that doesn’t mean they have the most chances. Plus, that guy may never come available.

But the real key here is you have to do everything you can, and the Rockets have. If they can’t acquire a superstar despite having the most assets, and if none of the young players turn into legitimate stars, and their combination of players don’t gel, and they can’t lure free agents, then you know what? Everything has gone wrong that can go wrong, and that’s just the way it goes.

The ability for Houston to absorb a major contract and to still retain their ability to compete without major rebuilding should not be overstated. They don’t have players with set tendencies who need X or Z to succeed. All of their players are either young enough to be malleable, or their games fit snugly around an alpha scorer.

In short, the have the best archaeologists, the most resources, the finest scholars, and every mode of transportation available, including camels.

But the trick is still finding the Holy Grail.

 

I might be wrong, but this sentence seems so wrong. Let me think why: Lamb, Jones, Motiejunas, White.

Oh right, we have 4 rookies who could be considered to have 'breakout potential'

 

It seems every thread boils down to this topic.

Once again... the Rockets need a star. End of story. It is not like the other options have better success rates than playing the draft.

Are the chances of the Rockets getting a player via the draft to lead them to a title low? Of course.

Are the chances of the Rockets getting a player via trade to lead them to a title low? Extremely. Honestly what championship caliber players are available on the trade market now?

Are the chances of the Rockets getting a player via free agency to lead them to a title low? Lowest chance of all three.

 

That article has mistakes. Some of these writers don't even follow the team they write about diligently that is why I try not to read them.

 

Well, up until the Dwight trade, there was a whole string of championship players available. This past couple years has been unique in that regard with Paul, DWill, and Dwight.

Right now, it looks like dead calm in regards to franchise type players being available. We're just going to have to wait and see if anything develops this season, and wait to see if one or two of our guys shows us the ability to dominate this league.

If I had to guess, I'd have to see LaMarcus should be on the watch list, simply because if Portland gets off to a bad start, perhaps they may decide to tank and in the process put LaMarcus up for bid. We would have to be the favorites to acquire him. However, LaMarcus by himself doesn't mean much. He's not on the same level as top-tier guys like Dwight, Paul, and DWill.

Barring that, Paul's impending free agency makes him a player to watch. But I'm not holding my breath there. It's not like he's in New Orleans anymore or that Dwight is sitting there waiting to team up with him. I don't believe Paul is going to be available.

Kevin Love is tied up in contract in Minny. They're obviously trying to win big. And even if he becomes disgruntled, there's really nothing he can do for a couple years to force his way out. They're definitely not tanking. So you can write off the opportunity to acquire him for a few seasons.

After that, I suppose you'd have to watch for a fire sale in New York. And the odds of them becoming desparate enough to unload Melo.....just not very good....basically zero. So, in my opinion, don't wait for that.

James Harden is pending restricted free agency. I fully expect OKC to keep him. However, until they actually do a deal with him, he's the closest thing to a franchise-type player with a pending contract issue.

Iggy is a pending unrestricted free agent who has just been traded. We could watch to see how he's gonna fit in Denver and see if he likes it there. I fully expect they'll love him and he'll reciprocate. Just don't see anything happening there. But it's a possibility. Oh, and he's not a guy that can carry a franchise by himself anyways.

Josh Smith is another pending unrestricted free agent. Something tells me he's going to get traded. He's not a franchise player. He's is a 6'9" power forward though. What would he do for us? Hard to tell at this point. He'd be entertaining to watch for the casual fan. But does he push you into championship contention? I don't see it.

So, you got Paul, Iggy, and JSmoove pending unrestricted free agency, Harden pending restricted free agency, and Lamarcus possibly in a blow-up situation in Portland. That's about it. One true francise player and 4 Robins. And only one of them is a serious threat to be moved at this point. With LaMarcus the second most likely and the odds are small at that and he's not going to lead you to a C by himself.

There is NO OTHER PROVEN YOUNG FRANCHISE PLAYER AVAILABLE RIGHT NOW.

Remember, to win a championship in the next 3 years, you're gonna have to build a team that can beat Miami, the Lakers, and OKC. Now while the Lakers window is a definitive 3 years, even after that, Miami and OKC are still going to be there. And in 3 years, low and behold, all OKC's guys are going to be hitting their MID-20's!!! That's crazy. Loads of playoff/championship contending experience and all of them in their prime primes. So realistically if you're gonna win a championship in the next 8 seasons, you're gonna have to build a team that can beat the Thunder. How we gonna do that???? Those guys don't grow on trees.

 

That's why the realistic chance of contending will not occur until at least 5 seasons later. And we have to develop our young players and future draftees during this period, so that 5 years later, some of them will become superstars or allstars by then.

 

I feel like you just proved my point though. If that is the case, then why not play the lottery and hope you get the next best thing?

 

If you're gonna play the lottey, you gotta play to win it. That means targeting the next two seasons, being awful, trading away any proven talent over age 26, and even trading some of our youngsters for lottery balls the next two years. You have to somehow position the team to have at least a 50% chance of winning the top pick. That way at least you get a top 3 pick out of the deal. That means making a lot of moves and giving away a lot of good talent to have the best chance of getting your guy. Are you prepared to sit through two seasons of awful pointless basketball? Ugh! I dread that.

I'm not saying it's not the way to go. I'm just saying, to get bad enough to be one of the 3-5 worst teams in basketball means you are going to be very bad for at least 2 seasons and likely 3-4 seasons. Thinking about that makes me want to turn in my fan card.

 

A truly great post that clearly sums up the huge hole in which this organization has placed itself due to years of ineptitude, bad drafts, player evaluation and an overall lack of vision.

 

That post actually shows how we are better positioned going forward than majority of the teams. Three teams contending in next 5 years, and we are wise to rebuild and reload with very good prospects.

 

Did you miss the part where there were quite a few franchise type players on the market.... Do you think Morey missed that? Seems it was a calculated move to remain competitive and flexible during these past years to nab one. It would instantly thrust us into contenders, instead of getting lucky and drafting and waiting for the player to be ready to lead his team to contender status?

Besides Anthony Davis, who did we really miss out on in the draft these past few years that could of elevated us?

I like our gamble even though it didn't work. I also like our current roster and the direction the team is heading.

 

I agree with you 100%. Every team that has won a championship the last 2 decades are teams that drafted their franchise player except for the Pistons who manages to gathered a group of hard nose borderline stars that played so well together. The Lakers on the other hand when they won those championships in the early 2000s, traded during the draft for Kobe Bryant but they also signed a marquee free agent in Shaq. Even though the Lakers didn't draft their franchise player in Kobe, they got him through the draft by trading away their solid starting center in Divac.

It would be nearly as hard as drafting a franchise player than trading or signing one. All of the big name superstars in the league wouldn't sign with Houston right now because 1), the Rockets are not in a big marketable city, and 2), the Rockets don't have a player that other big name stars want to play with. So the Rockets is better off trying to draft a player that they can build around or use them as a trade bait to trade for a marquee player.

The reigning champion Heat are incredibly lucky and successful because they drafted a superstar in Wade and other stars like Lebron and Bosh wants to play with Wade in Miami. The Rockets have to be able to draft a type of player that are able to market themselves and be able to have other stars believe in playing alongside them in Houston.

Right now, I think the best option for Houston is to draft a top 3 talent in the draft. Instead of trying to trade for an establish star that is in their late 20s, the Rockets should scout the top 3 talent that they believe can carry their team far and build their franchise around. Once they find that player, they'll be lucky if they can draft him with their existing pick (if they have a top 3 pick) or if not, trade up. Throw in their trade chips like their own high lottery pick, the toronto's pick, and some of our young talents. But at the end, the Rockets have to be sure that the player they are going after is a sure thing.