[ClutchFans] Podcast - Talking Draft, Rockets Future with BimaThug

what was the intro bumper music? Satriani?

 

Great Podcast,

My ideal draft moves = us moving Lowry + 14th for Portland's 6th.
If we keep the picks, top draft targets in Sullinger, Leonard, Zeller

Make or break year for Morey? I tend to agree with the systems and advanced scouting he's put into place I don't want to see him leave.

 

nm I need to listen further!

 

Love the optimism : "This is the Clutchfans podcast - the first of its kind, possibly the last ..."

lol.

 

I just don't see how Zeller or Meyers fall to 14th.

 

It will be a miracle, especially with this latest news on Sullinger. Both Sullinger and Drummond are likely to fall out of the lottery in my opinion. I can't believe Clutch wants to trade up and take a flyer on Drummond. He knows too much bball to take that kind of risk. That is a franchise killing move, trading good assets up to get a guy that has about an 80% chance of being a bust.

 

Or trading the best parts of the roster for a guy with an 80+% chance of not re-signing here when his contract is up in a year?

Drummond won't fall out of the lottery. The average GM is, "Hey, look, this guy's real tall, strong, and big---and he's not white! And he didn't stay in college 4 years! Get him!"

 

We have a much higher chance of signing Dwight to an extension if we trade for him than Drummond has of being a substantial NBA player.

 

I'd do it just to secure a tanking season. Not kidding.

 

Why do you dislike Drummond so much?

 

Great podcast. I look forward to more, Clutch & Bima. Drummond would be ok. I wouldn't take him simply because of his freethrow shooting. In the 4th quarter, the other team would play "beat a Drum" instead of "hack a Shaq".

 

Awesome--thanks Double Daves!

Spoiler

The Clutchfans podcast--the first of it's kind, possibly the last.

[Shout out to Jeff Balke]

Dave: Welcome David. You love the NBA draft. Tell us about it.

Bima: For, I can't remember how long now, every year my wife and I have an annual draft party with our close friends who are hardcore Rockets fans. Not for the faint of heart. Kinda like Christmas for me every year.

Dave: I gotta say, that's kinda the way it has gone for me for years. I kinda always charted the draft and loved following it. This year I'm struggling a bit even though the Rockets have 2 good picks at 14 and 16. It feels a little bit like they won't be here. I know we felt that way the last couple of years but this year, it doesn't seem like with Motiejunas coming over that they'll be able to add 2 rookies that you think will get playing time.

Bima: I don't know what to make of this draft. I'm very excited because I don't know the last time, 2001 I guess, where the Rockets were set up as nicely with first round picks as they are this year. Not counting 2002 where we had #1 and 15. That might be the best but we all knew we were taking Yao and ended up with Boki Nachbar at 15. I look back to 2001 when we had the 13th, 18th, and 23rd picks as kinda the most comparable pre-draft situation to where we are now. Daryl Morey and the Rockets FO has so many different ways they could go. We'll try touch on some of them that we can even conceive of but I'll bet you there are 100 other things they are exploring or may end up doing that we can't even conceive of.

Dave: I would agree with that. I think if they stay at 14 and 16, I certainly like their position. This draft, I think goes comfortably 25 deep. I personally wouldn't mind stepping back to where Boston is. I think they'll get cheap, quality players as well. I feel good about that they won't get stuck picking some guaranteed contract at 14 or 16 that they won't be happy with. I think there is quality there. Let's just step into the draft a little bit. What do you feel is their needs?

Bima: Positionally speaking, the obvious answer there is center with Dalembert not likely to be back, Camby being a FA and even if he comes back, he's in the twilight of his career so center is an obvious need as well as shooting guard. We have 2 very good players under relative team control right now in Kevin Martin, who has a year left, and Courtney Lee who is a RFA. It's quite possible Martin gets dealt this summer and no guarantee the Rockets retain Courtney Lee. They may be looking to find a potential Lee replacement or if they let Martin go, retain Lee but don't trade for a SG, they may need a backup for Lee for next year.

Dave: I think that's a very accurate assessment there. I think they won't take a SF. There could be a Moe Harkless or someone like that that blows them away and feel they have to but after taking Morris and Parsons last year, seems like they got guys under rookie contracts & control for awhile that they don't need another young player at the three.

Bima: I tend to agree but if there is one thing that we've seen over the last few years, the Rockets will go BPA seemingly regardless of position. They're so open to trades. Guys like Parsons and Morris are probably on the high end of the trade chips that this team has right now. They may look at it as we're going to take the guy we feel is best regardless of position and we'll let the roster sort itself out while I personally would like to see them address a position of need. Hopefully they're taking the BPA who also happens to fill a position of need. I wouldn't put it past them to take even a SF if it just so happens to be the best player on their board.

Dave: Interesting take. Superstar or top player, I don't think they'll pass on anybody regardless of position. Let's step through the draft. The first pick is pretty much lock. Most people look at 2-6, the order isn't necessarily set but most think those players are set. It's possible Damian Lilliard or someone like that could crack the top 6. I think the draft starts at 7, by most accounts. How do you look at the draft from 7 on playing out for the Rockets?

Bima: Golden State is reportedly interested in trading their pick. That depends on how the draft plays out. They've been linked with Terrence Jones, Perry Jones, or Jared Sullinger, some names that could slip into the teens and it's possible they're a trade up partner for the Rockets. I agree with you, the top six, maybe seven, if you want to throw Lilliard in there, I think once you hit 7, 8, 9, you're probably talking about players that you can get comparable value at 14 and 16. Obviously the higher up you are, the greater the odds you get your guy but I do think the talent level starts to level off around 7 and 8.

Dave: With the Rockets picking 14 and 16, so close together, Boston in a similar situation at 21 and 22, how will that impact the draft?

Bima: Besides getting a higher pick at 16, the Knicks won the coin toss with Dallas and Utah that allowed us to get the 16th pick. Having 2 picks so close together could be beneficial if the Rockets are able to game the draft correctly. One thing the Rockets FO really does well is research. They do tons of research. Not only on prospects they're interested in but also what other teams are interested in. They try to figure out what other teams draft strategies are and who they're looking to select. A critical bit of research for them will be trying to peg what the Sixers will do with 15. A lot of speculation that Dion Waiters or Austin Rivers has a promise at 13 from Phoenix. That could be conjecture but a lot of people think that one of those guys won't fall past 13. If they can figure out what Philly is doing at 15, it really positions themselves well to maximize the value of the 14th pick. For instance, if the Rockets have a trade on the table, another team will give something of value for the 14th pick, if Houston knows what Phoenix is doing at 13 , that gives them time to set up the trade, and then knows what Philly is doing at 15, they may be able to trade the 14th pick for maximum value and still get the top guy on their board at 16. That's one example where doing your research can set the Rockets up really nicely in this draft.

Dave: Any guys that you think are a great fit or that you want to fall to 14?

Bima: Yes, Anthony Davis.

Dave: OK, great. Moving past that, anyone else?

Bima: Oh, you mean realistic possibilities. One guy I really like and has been polarizing on the board is Tyler Zeller. I think he screams Daryl Morey player. He's obviously a polished product. ... He gets to the FT line, he's very quick in transition, an excellent fast breaking center, can finish in transition, wasn't asked to be much of a jump shooter last year but when he did, he shot at a high clip. He got some range to his jump shot and seems to...I think you can check all the boxes of what makes a successful mid-first round pick and after that, the fact he fulfills one of our top positional needs, I think he'd be an excellent choice at 14.

Dave: I wholeheartedly agree with you on this. I believe going into this draft, the Rockets have to be looking across the board at guys that are high upside, high potential guys, no more solid picks and decent role players. They have to be looking at high upside guys. When it comes to the C position, solid is...works just great. I look at this, at Zeller, and thinking this is the guy the Rockets have to be wanting right now. Solid player. Everything you described. Shoots FTs at a solid clip. This is a guy who can step in and contribute for McHale. I think Meyers Leonard is the smoke screen and Zeller is the guy the Rockets are hoping who might slide.

Bima: I wouldn't be crying if they took Meyers Leonard. He looks to be quite an athletic specimen, long, tall, strong, he's definitely got more potential upside than Zeller but his floor is a heck of a lot lower than Zeller's. The knock on Tyler is he is mostly a finished product and likelihood that won't get significantly better from here. Even based on what he did this past year at North Carolina, he could be an above average starting center. Like you said, above average starting centers are quite a premium in this league.

Dave: Absolutely. Take him at 14 and in a year or two, he's worth way more than that. Any other guys that jumps out at you or you want to see available at 14?

Bima: Another guy that not too many are talking about, some on CF really like him, is Terrence Ross. 6'7 swingman out of Washington. Not the sexy name or pick like Dion Waiters, Austin Rivers, Jeremy Lamb as the guys people are talking about going into the late lottery. A lot of mocks have him going to us at 16, 18 to Minnesota, but this guy really looks like a good fit with the Rockets. He got height at 6'7. Looks like he could play SG with size, plus defender and can shoot the rock. I know the Rockets tend to shy away from athletic guys that just can't shoot but this guy has athleticism, can shoot it and can defend. Those are major positives. If they can somehow haul in Zeller and Ross at 14 and 16, I'd be ecstatic.

Dave: I agree with you about Ross. Very good player. Doesn't really have the play making ability that you'd love to see of a 2 guard sliding over and helping out but got the size, defense ability and scoring ability. He'd be an excellent pick. I'd absolutely hate to see him slip down to the T'Wolves. I personally was hoping, if anything out of this draft, that's how the Rockets landing 2 quality players, that Minnesota doesn't get their top SG out of this draft. I know there are 4-5 guys that look really good on the board and chances somebody might slip to Minnesota but one guy I really like as well is John Henson. When you look at the draft from 7 on, you have to look at the Pistons at 9 and Bucks at 12 as far as taking big guys. We don't know necessarily what they'll end up doing but you'd think Zeller, Henson and Leonard are probably candidates at 9 and 12. That's the most likely landing spots. It will be interesting to see out of those 3, what three are left standing at 14. Henson is a guy I really like. Doesn't have the broad shoulders of an Anthony Davis and you say he'll become a beast once he develops but has long legs, long arms, didn't test out quite as athletically at the combine as I hoped but I think his shot blocking is outstanding, he's young. When he came out of HS, he was a top rated prospect, I think he has a lot of potential. I'd love to see him slide to 14, not sure if he will, but I'd love to see the Rockets scoop him up even though he's not quite the center.

Bima: I agree with you there. Another PF is probably the last thing Rockets fans want to see but at the same time, you have to look at the BPA. If Henson is there at 14, he'd definitely be near the top of my list of BPA at that spot. He does at least one thing at an elite level and that's block shots. Outside of Marcus Camby, the Rockets don't have a real top shot blocker so he could add an element to the Rockets that they don't really have. Reminds me of a little bit of a younger AK47 during his best years individually with the Jazz, when he was playing PF. AK47 a long, lengthy guy that was never built out. He ended up moving to SF when they added Boozer and I don't think he ever found the same individual success as a PF. Henson reminds me a lot of AK47. If he can develop an outside shot and depending on his ability to defend, he could be a swing forward possibly. I think he'll be stuck at PF. I'd like to think he'd fill out and play C but I'm not optimistic about that, given his frame. As an AK47 type of PF, he has a fairly high ceiling for a mid-first round pick.

Dave: Talking before this, we pretty much agreed that Terrence Jones is a guy that the Rockets, we'd like to see them avoid. Thoughts on Perry Jones out of Baylor. A guy who is sliding and could be available at 14. Thoughts on him?

Bima: Not a more polarizing player in this year's draft than Jones. The upside is there. His upside is a 6'11 version of Tracy McGrady. Do I think he'll reach that potential? Probably not. His floor is along the lines of Gerald Green--a guy with freakish athletic ability who never puts it together. Fortunately for Gerald, he caught on with Nets this past year. I wish him luck. Perry could really, he's all over the place. He could be a great player, small chance of that, pretty decent chance he busts out. Still, the upside is tantalizing. I'm not the biggest Perry Jones fan myself but if the Rockets end up taking a flyer on him, especially if they went solid with a guy like Zeller at 14, if Jones slipped all the way to 16, I would not fault the Rockets for kinda taking a home run swing like last year with Morris.

Dave: As far as Perry Jones, I'm somewhat in agreement there. I would roll the dice on a guy like him. I would like the Rockets to take some risks. I feel they've gone too much the safe route in the past. Perry Jones is a bust potential but also has potential to be something special with his height, athleticism and skill set. I know he has motor questions and sorta drive and desire questions and those are never good but I would roll the dice with that pick. As far as trade up possibilities, obviously everyone would like to trade up but say we put a price on it, Kyle Lowry and both of those picks, anyone outside of Davis that you would go for?

Bima: Not too many. One guy I do like at the top of the draft is Bradley Beal. He reminds me a lot of Eric Gordon, who I love. He's not the tallest SG prospect out there but got size, strength and one of the best jump shots of anyone in this draft. If there were anyone outside of Davis that I thought would most likely be an all-star, it is Beal.

Dave: Good pick. I'd love to see the Rockets move up to get him. I'd do the same, to be honest, for Andre Drummond. He got a bunch of knocks on him. Bit of a goofy guy. You have to wonder if his heart is into this long term. He got some skill question marks as well. Can't shoot FTs. Shooting is an issue for him. But a guy that size, and his mobility, athleticism, that's a guy I would roll the dice with as well. A guy I'd like to see the Rockets trade up for. We talked as well about as "Do the Rockets have a plan?". We've done the debate. Looking into this summer, what's their plan moving forward?

Bima: It really depends. So much is up in the air. I really think this franchise is at a crossroads. What will determine the path they take, unless Les Alexander, Daryl Morey and the rest of them put their head down and focus on one direction, which I don't think they will, they'll be open to all possibilities, I really think what other teams are willing to do will largely dictate what path this franchise takes next year. There are so many possibilities, especially on draft night between the 2 first rounders, Kyle Lowry, you have a limited shelf life on Samuel Dalembert's partially guaranteed contract. Depending on what other teams are willing to do, if they're willing to play ball, willing to trade a star vet for younger assets, future picks, things like that, you may go the "Lets just win and forget a full rebuild". However, if another team is willing to give you a top 5 pick in this year's draft or willing to trade you a future first round pick with minimal protection, then if the greater value is in future assets or really young players, they could go the total rebuild route. I think where the value is between them and other teams in trades will largely dictate where they go.

Dave: I look at this off-season as critical. The biggest of Morey's tenure. I was frustrated the direction they went last year. That was the time to make changes. Frustrated with the direction they went and I think they're living with the results right now, picking 14th. Right now, I don't think they need to pick a direction. They have up until FA, mid-July, to see what comes to them, whether it's a top pick or trades opening up. As I've learned over this last year, I think there are two types of fans, the diehards, which I include myself, and then the casual fans who are entertained by the Rockets being competitive. Maybe come to games as a form of entertainment. The Rockets as constructed are perfect for them. As far as diehards are concerned, you can't but help feel frustrated and feel they don't have a plan. That's becoming more and more apparent. They're not giving themselves an avenue to improve this team. When you look at other teams in the league, that it's clear that they don't have a chance to win it all and don't necessarily have the young pieces to build and groom to get towards that, they make swift changes. They pick a clear direction--heading south, develop young players and getting top draft picks. 2 examples off the top of my head--Portland, came into last year in the same boat as the Rockets, a bubble playoff team but when it became clear they weren't going to reach that status and started to slip, they made swift moves, quick moves to rebuild, to start to get pieces for young players and willingly take that step back. They made some very good moves. Clearly the Gerald Wallace trade was one that isn't easily duplicated. They flipped a win now piece for the 6th pick in the draft. But there is nothing preventing the Rockets from making similar moves. Trading Kevin Martin for a draft pick, trading Luis Scola for a piece and a draft pick, something along those lines but they've held on to those pieces. Portland didn't. You can't argue that they are in a better position than the Rockets. They got the 6th and 11th pick and tons of cap room. A chance to improve there. New Orleans, a year ago was in the playoffs. The Rockets were home watching New Orleans in the playoffs. In a year, they have managed to head south, come back up north and have better future than the Rockets period. That's what getting Davis does for you. Putting yourself in position to win the lottery, obviously it takes some luck. The Rockets are unwilling to take that step back and don't have as bright of future. That's what frustrating to fans, no plan outlined on how to improve.

Bima: Excellent points. The Rockets might be able to do something like Portland or New Orleans did. The Rockets may be less successful, 1) we don't have a guy like Chris Paul to attract the type of trade package that they received for him. The franchise is a victim of their own success in building really good role players around Tracy and Yao, that they're good enough to compete with but not good enough to get enough back in trade where you can scrap it all and you have a top 5-10 draft pick waiting for you from a trade. Then also, on Portland, New Jersey, I don't know what they were thinking on that trade. The 6th pick for 6 weeks of Gerald Wallace. I guess you have to rely on another team making a stupid trade.

Dave: Certainly. No denying Portland got lucky there. Made no sense for NJ to do what they did. ... That leads me into this, is this a make or break season for Daryl Morey?

Bima: You have to say yes if for no other reason than he's going into the final year of his contract. The only opinion that matters is Les Alexander's. He hired Daryl. What has become the popular belief, at least on the board, that the decision to compete without tearing it all down is largely Les' idea or at least his preferred approach than perhaps Morey's gonna be given a lot more slack as someone who is just doing his best to execute the owner's preferred game plan. I personally think Daryl has done a really good job. He's been dealt a really tough hand. We're just coming up on completion of one year without Yao and Tracy's contract clogging up the books cap wise. This summer will really be the first time we could have significant cap room. Last summer, there was limited cap room but not many options for using it. I think the options will really be open this summer. What Morey does this summer and possibly leading up to the February trade deadline may determine his fate. Could he get a contract extension this summer? It's quite possible. Just as possible that Les Alexander waits and sees what he does this year with the roster before making any decisions. You have to say yes it's a make or break year but if the Rockets don't make some gigantic leap forward this year, that doesn't necessarily spell the end of Daryl Morey with Houston.

Dave: It's interesting. If you look simply at the results, it's been now 3 straight years with the 14th pick and 9th seed, I think I would say "Yeah, it's a make or break year for Daryl Morey." I love Daryl, love what the FO has accomplished, they have do a lot of positive things that get overlooked, their ability to add players at a low cost or even no cost is outstanding but looking at the results, I would say "Yeah, a make or break season." My answer would actually probably be no. As you pointed out, I think Daryl is following orders here, going under the direction that Les has outlined. They're not willing to take that step back, not willing to lose games to get better picks or develop young players at the cost of now. I think it would be almost disingenuous of Les to look at this as "You got to take me to the promise land this year or else..." I have a hard time thinking this is make or break for Daryl.

Bima; I would definitely like to think that. I think that makes perfect sense. Another thought there, if you take a look at what the Rockets organization has done on a macro scale, the shift to analytics, expanding of staff for people crunching data and the general approach the FO has taken to the game of basketball, it all centers around Daryl Morey. He's been the guy putting it all together. Replacing him after this year, organizationally, would be a lot more significant change than your average changing of the guard at GM for a NBA franchise.

Dave: Let's close on this. Draft a week from Thursday. Draft day predictions? What do you think actually ends up happening here?

Bima: One of a million different possibilities. I think the Rockets try like hell to package their picks to move up. Odds are, like in year's past, that they aren't successful. I hope the listener goes back to this podcast and laughs after we get a top five pick but the odds are against us doing that. If the Rockets stay at 14 and 16, again, if they fall to their respective picks, if they can pick up Tyler Zeller and Terrence Ross with those picks, that would be a great pickup. I'm hoping how it plays out, IF the Rockets are stuck at 14 and 16. Unless a big trade materializes, I think you could see the Rockets deal Samuel Dalembert on draft night. He's got a 6.7 million dollar second year of his deal that is only partially guaranteed at 1.5 million until July 8th, which is right in the middle of the July moratorium, so if things stay the way they are, if the Rockets don't waive him before July 8, he'll be fully guaranteed at 6.7 million. I think if they can't use him in some bigger deal, they'll look to dump him on a team like Sacramento or Toronto and cover his guarantee with cash.

Dave: Good predictions there. I'd love to see the Rockets add multiple players on draft night out of this draft. I'd love to see them add young players. I don't think they'll add two. I think they'll come away with one first round pick, and ideally, even if they have to trade that pick for a future pick with lottery protection, it would be an underwhelming move, but I can see them doing that because I don't think they'll add more young players in the middle of the first round. I think ideally, they would move up in the draft and slip into the 30-35 range and get a 2nd round pick, perhaps for a Euro-stash prospect, Evan Fournier, something like that but that's what I see. I agree on Dalembert. I'm confident he won't be back next year and draft night is the night to do it. We'll see. I can't see the Rockets, personally, adding more than one first round pick unless they send out current players they have under contract. Thanks for the discussion. Always great talking Rockets with you. Maybe we can do this again before the draft.

Bima: My pleasure. Appreciate it and appreciate everything you do for Rockets fan. Privilege to be a member of the community.

Dave: Take care.

Bima: You too.

Did/do you guys disagree on anything?

 

I hear they're inviting DaDakota next time for a three way discussion. Should be interesting.

 

I would be more than happy to do something like that, but I would probably agree with Clutch and Bima more than you think.

DD

 

Maybe you could be the deciding vote on Drummond. I have a feeling Bima doesn't want any part of him while Clutch is wanting to trade our picks and Lowry to get up high enough to get him. Bima went silent when Clutch threw that on the table. LOL. Of course I may have missed something right there. I was too busy throwing up in my mouth.

 

Intro. Music.

Also, I hope we draft Royce White.

 

Nice, Thanks guys.

 

Clutch, Bima, great stuff. There should be more of these in the future.

A couple quick things that was touched on. As far as the Draft goes, if the Rockets are not able to trade up and/or deal for star level talent I'm in the Tyler Zeller camp. I agree that the Rockets probably won't add two first rounders to this team as it stands, but I'm hoping they do.

As far as the orginization is concerned, I'm in the frustrated group. I'd feel better if I knew the team was choosing a certain direction. Mediocrity has gotten old, I'd actually be ok with a little downtime if I saw some light at the end of the tunnel.

Whether or not Morey should be on the hotseat is a bit tricky. If it's true that Les wants to try and build on the fly, while not giving Morey a chance to do it they way he feels best, then no he shouldn't be. If this is all Morey's way of building the team then I'd lean toward him having much more to prove. Yes Morey has made some very good deals and has positioned the team well capwise. Still, this team (I hope) is not willing to stay mediocre forever.

I'm excited this year it seems a little more than the last couple of years, because I think Morey has more to work with. It's going to be very interesting watching this play out. The draft can't get here soon enough.

 

i appreciate the hardwork bima and clutch...

i enjoyed the discussion and believe you should do it more often...

 

Great stuff keep it up!!!