[ClutchFans] Podcast: Rockets red hot, but power forward position still a big question mark

Aldridge's roster fit and ability to play C is not worth the future flexibility and other rotation players that we would have to give up. If backup center is the concern, like I've been suggesting, we can just have Atlanta include Gustava Ayon in the trade. He is solid enough to handle 10-15 minutes.

Backup center is definitely needed, but I don't think it will be that hard to solve. I know our issues last year, and we may all just be scarred by Greg Smith in the playoffs.

 

I do agree with this.... At least with the LMA trade. It would have to take LMA and his agent really pushing Portland to get this done, and it would probably take some creative 3 way trades to get Portland the assets they really want.

With Atlanta, I dont think they would be as incredibly picky. Asik coming to Atlanta (a team who might still make the playoffs without him) means they have the chance to have one of the best front lines in the NBA, and that's a huge building block for the future. I think Ferry will focus on free agency next Summer more likely as a catalyst to rebuild further, and I think Asik only taking up 8.4 mil going into a Summer where they are wanting to spend makes Asik a very attractive asset player along with the picks Houston will be able to send over.

Anyways... that's my thoughts. I think an Atlanta trade is very doable. Portland.... meh... gonna have to get creative there. Still they don't HAVE TO give up Lin to get the deal done.

 

I have contacted Zach Lowe by email and through Twitter asking him to do an evaluation of centers defensively...breaking down the top 30 or so guys. In my opinion, Zach is the best in the business at defensive evaluations of players. Don't know why some NBA team hasn't hired him yet. No response to my request. But he's the guy I'd like to read and watch vid on breaking down the bigs defensively. I simply don't have the time to do that working a full-time job, etc. So, I have no idea on some of these guys how good they are defensively. Ayon I've only seen a little bit of. Never been impressed with his defensive ability particularly.

But I have watched John Henson a lot. That's the guy I'd really like to have as a backup 5 if we added a guy like Millsap.....(or Ilyasova). IF...we could move Asik and DMo for Ilyasova and Henson somehow...I'd do that deal very quickly. If we could move DMo for Henson and Asik for Millsap...I'd do that deal. I'm convinced Henson is already a primary paint defender with good rebounding ability that would be great backing up Dwight in a smaller faster lineup.

 

Atlanta in my opinion will want more for Millsap than Portland will want for Aldridge due to Millsap being on a sweet contract. So as much as you like Lin, he (or something of his value) would most likely be sent to a third team get something + Asik to acquire Millsap.

On Atlanta liking Horford more, I haven't seen any indication of this. They went out and got Millsap, a PF, when Horford has been begging for a center. Centers and backup centers don't grow on trees, though.

I am unsure if the Rockets would trade Lin and Asik for either one. It will come down to another team wanting to trade a guy for the Rockets to get a good deal.

 

Millsap's trade value will not exceed LaMarcus' trade value. Doesn't matter what Atlanta wants. They know they are capped on Millsap's trade value. No team is going to overpay for him. So they either trade him or if they like him well enough they keep him.

Asik is worth more in trade than Millsap. Mark that down. Asik is a top 10 center in this league. That trumps an undersized outperforming 4.

 

Look, every team has a "GAPING HOLE" somewhere, you won't ever have a complete team in the NBA due to this thing called the salary cap. We already have a superstar C and a damn good SF, what's the point of gutting the team to add a max or near max PF?

Superstar PFs in the league make their money because:

1) They can score points efficiently (handle the offensive load)
2) Defend
3) Stretch the O
4) Rebound

Well between Dwight and Parsons we already have the D, rebounding and offensive load sorted out, you want DH to be the number 1 option in the post and Parsons fills the "Robin" role between Superman and Batman. What's Love or LMA or Horford gonna do when there aren't enough shots, you want them to be the 3rd or 4rth option? That's under utilizing them, notice how Bosh's production plummeted when he joined Miami.

The best PF on this team si role player who can stretch the D, and we don't need a max player for that. In fact, between DMO, Tjones, Covington, Casspi and Parsons we might already have that guy.

 

Agree with this. I'd have to think that Atlanta would be the ones that have to sweeten the deal, not Houston. Maybe I'm way off.

 

dobro1229,

I see Atlanta wanting to have a stretch 4 and 5 which they have in Horford and Millsap. They have Jeff Teague to finish at the rim. Krover is another floor spacer. Lou Williams also likes to get to the rim and is a decent 3 point threat. Granted, I think they may want some upgrades, but these are the types of players I think they want (i.e. Keep the Dwight Howards away from rim so their guards have an empty paint to drive in).

I think Atlanta sees themselves as a James Harden away from having the offensive players to give even the Bulls and Pacers defensive fits. While I expect they would love Asik on defense, I don't know if they think they need an Asik as much as others sinse Horford and Millsap provide a good anchor together defensively while still being offensive threats.

 

-Millsap with the 3 ball- Not saying he can't shoot it, just saying mostly that it's not something the Rockets are bringing him in to do consistently. Keep in mind, the most 3's that Millsap has ever shot in an NBA season is 39 and that's with him as a regular starter.

Check this out-

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa01/shooting/2013/

I dont know about you, but I want Millsap finishing around the rim as much as possible. For an undersized PF, he's pretty damn good at it. Playing alongside a dominant big like Howard, you probably want his spacing to come from movement more than spot up 3's where he's just standing in the corners. Millsap is a very good big at moving without the ball, and finding seems to get easy buckets.

LaMarcus' defensive ability- I think he's definitely more suited guarding 4's one-on-one against starters, but if his minutes are staggered with Dwight's I think he would be very affective in those minutes, and they wouldn't lose much because he is still very large and mobile like Dwight. He can plug driving lanes, and alter shots.

However, he's nothing compared to Dwight who averages something like 6.5 defensive win shares while LMA averages something 2.5. So while he could help plug holes defensively with the backups for a few minutes here and there (and actually improve the offense), he's not someone you want to rely on with starters minutes at the 5.

Like you mentioned though, you probably would want to still look at bringing in another 7 footer either through trade or next Summer in free agency. I'm thinking a Koufas type would be perfect to trade for, but you could probably pick up a veteran like a Dalembert type fairly easily with the teams mid-level if they needed to use it in free agency. (uhh... kinda vomited in my mouth a little using the word Dalembert).

 

I think Millsap and Asik are very close in value and it depends on the system a team runs. Last year's Rockets, I prefer Asik to Millsap. If I am Atlanta, I prefer Horford and Millsap over Asik and Horford. Horford and Millsap both play good defense meaning the defensive advantage of having Asik would be mitigated. Millsap's offense is much better than Asik's and allow Atlanta to do what they want offensively.

 

Small sample size alert:

Millsap is a career 47.6% shooter from the corner 3. On 21 attempts.

He is a good midrange shooter, no reason why he can't expand his attempts from the corners.

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Those weren't corner 3s...

 

I agree with this. Rim first, 3 second. Millsap is a very efficient player even though he would probably be even more efficient if more of his long 2's were 3's.

 

I guess it all just depends on what they want their identity to be on both ends. All I can account for is what I would want to shoot for if I was the GM, and in my opinion, if I'm relying on Jeff Teague and Lou Williams to be my focal points of my offense, that's not as good.

Also, I dont think utilizing Millsap as strickly a stretch big is doing his talents justice. Millsap is a very good big in the paint. He moves well without the ball, and just finds ways to score around the bucket. However, Millsap isn't someone you build a system around. I think Atlanta needs something to build around, and if moving Millsap gets them there, they should go for it.

In the East Atlanta has a core big man foundation to build around and support with whatever talent they can bring in around the perimeter which should be much easy and cheaper to get in the offseason. I love Millsap as a player that you can plug into a certain situation, but he's not a foundational piece by any stretch. Asik & Horford give them an identity moving forward, and it also keeps Horford happy in ATL.

 

Millsap is a multi-dimensional 4. Yes, he's a great finisher. He's great in the pick and roll. He's great in the pick and pop. And dude can spot up and bang down jumpers like nobody's business. On top of all that, he's an underrated defender. Extremely strong base to take on post up bigs. Not as good as Hayes on post up defense but durn near close. He's a very good help defender. And dude has BBIQ running out his ears. Bottom line....Millsap is a great player...that is undersized.

Now...I don't mind undersized. In fact, I love the fact that it takes away from Millsap's trade value. It just means that we can get more for Asik than just him. All things being equal I'd prefer Millsap at the 4 for this team than either LaMarcus or Melo's cap clogging max deals.

BUT>>>>>>>>>>>>I still wouldn't trade Asik for him straight up.....because Asik has more trade value. Asik is a top 10 center in this league. We have to solve the backup center spot if we trade Asik. It is too important to this team. The combination of having one of Dwight/Asik on the floor for every minute of the game and having a shooter on the level of Casspi exceeds the value of having Dwight/GSmith on the floor for 48 minutes alongside Paul Millsap. That's how important having a quality backup 5 man is. Asik is not only quality. He's top quality. He is too important to this team to simply move him for Millsap straight up. We've got to have a quality big that can dominate the defensive paint and boards as part of any deal that moves Asik out.

 

I should clarify when I say stretch, I mean someone that has the ability to draw a guy away from the basket. Millsap can do that. That doesn't necessarily mean that the player just sits in the corner waiting for him to be passed the ball. To me, that opens up his game to cut, use screens, and crash glass more effectively as he can't be played off. In the PnR game, he can either roll to the basket or just setup for an uncontested mid range jump shot.

I don't see Williams and Teague being the focal point of the offense. Millsap and Horford are the focal point of the offense, but they are not sitting in the paint waiting for the ball. They are setting screens and then cutting to basket or to the corner. They are opening up lanes for Teague and Williams as the opposing big men are forced to stay with them (or at a minimum keep an eye on them) instead of sit in the paint.

Atlanta could use a star guard to take advantage of having too mobile big men.

 

Standing by what I said here. Wasn't too concerned with how bad it looked against Dallas/Dirk, and not surprised that it looked much, much better against TD/Splitter.

Clearly 'twin towers' can work, you just have to use it in the right situations - opposing lineups without mobile 4s. I don't think they will have any problems running this around 10 minutes a game on average.

Which is GREAT news, because that means our 3rd best player - Asik - can get 25ish minutes a game now compared to 15, which is huge. Not only does this keep him happy, more importantly, it means the Rockets have leverage now in any trades talks - worst comes to worst, we can just keep him. If Asik couldn't play at all with Dwight, and was only on the floor 15 mins a game, other teams would lowball us and assume we were desperate.

As for the starting lineup, we may or may not go with Asik for a bit to start off the year, but for the majority of games, barring trade, it is easily going to be Casspi. That is pretty much a sure thing now.

You go with Casspi because you want to establish our offensive style off the bat - 4 out 1 in run and gun. And because you don't want the wear and tear/foul trouble of Dwight chasing around little 4s from the start of the game.

 

I guess you missed the Magic game.... 4th game in preseason
Casspi's worst performance and that was as a starter

 

I don't want to drag down the quality of Clutch's thread, but since you seem to like following me around everywhere, I'll just say this and I'm out:

At this point, if you still can't see that Casspi is going to start a ton of games for us this year, at the 4, you have got to be either blind or stupid. So I'm just going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are part of the 60% without CSN.

Sorry.

 

Too many in denial here. Handwriting on the wall.

 

It does not make sense at all... why waste roster spots on Smith, Jones and Motiejunas if all you wanted was a big SF at that starting spot?!

Their value right now is going to be pretty low.
I am standing by my statement: Short term I would be ok with that, but long term a clear No.