[ClutchFans] Notebook Dump: Reflections on Dwight Howard, Morey, Asik and Lin

well technically he didn't LEAVE ny; he was walked to the bus stop and helped get on the bus. he didn't have a choice - sign with houston and hope ny matches, or play for ny at the qualifying offer of 1mil. it was totally up to ny whether he stayed or not.

but you're right, though. he never really cared about what fans say about him.

 

That was a wonderful read. Thank you Clutch.

 

From a value standpoint there is simply no way you can trade Lin now. The way our offense is slated to be, there will be tremendous opportunity for Lin to showcase his PnR skills along with Dwight. His transition skills will obviously improve too. The linchpin will be his outside shooting. If he can maintain his rate from after the ASB last year, I think we'll finally see the blossoming of a starting-caliber PG who is good enough to either a.) start on this championship contending team, or b.) be traded to another team who will covet him the way New Orleans coveted Jrue Holiday.

Like Clutch said though, Lin's silence speaks volumes. I too have an ominous feeling about this. Even if he is not traded, it doesn't sound like Lin is too happy with the feedback he's been receiving from the organization, and that could easily affect his play. I guess we'll find out in the coming months. I can FEEL a sig change coming!

Oh, and to whoever said we're not contenders this year, we are man. We are.

 

I completely disagree with Clutch's comment with ASIK and LIN.
ASIK and Howard can coexist on the court.
lineup adjustments are often made because of defensive purposes, rarely offensive.
There are just too many ways to score, but you have to take chance to get a stop.

Both ASIK and Howard can move their feet. they were not just rim protectors.
Especially ASIK, I don't think you can name another big man with a such rare combination of excellent positioning, lateral movement and strength.
I really think, with the current lineup, HOU could be like a team with cheat code when playing against others.
top interior D and rebounding on defense, forcing opponent to jack inefficient outside shots
Foul creation and 3 pointer on O, the most efficient way to get pts.

 

I do agree that its very very odd that Lin didn't tweet something about Dwight. Maybe he's feeling a bit unwanted after not being invited to the meeting and hearing his name in trade rumors.

 

Good post, but this 9if I may):

I think we're all wondering what to do with Mr. Lin and the position he plays, with no one agonizing over what Morey will do more than DM the GM...unless it's Owner Alexander. (Just my poor self's 2-cents worth.

 

wtg e!

 

if it comes to maintaining the connection to china vs. making a change to get to the finals, i don't think there's choice to be made. i've always thought the lin/china connection is a bit overblown.

 

Ha! That is awesome!

:grin:

 

I wasn't saying that Alexander wouldn't agree to move Jeremy if it's clearly the best move from a basketball perspective, but rather that it wouldn't be an easy decision for him. The Rockets definitely "overpaid" for Jeremy, based on his production at the time we acquired him. That decision, in my humble opinion, wasn't made entirely from a basketball standpoint. I'll add that I have absolutely no interest in arguing about my opinion. Take it or leave it.

 

unless there's a big $$ star that's disgruntled about his current team, lin will stay put. teams won't trade away their star player just to get lin and bunch of scrubs. the only one i can think of MIGHT be LMA but they'd prob want asik more than lin. my guess is 95% we'll stick with the current starting unit come October.

as of dumping his salary to get a free agent - i don't see any other there that would significantly improve the team. none of the B level PGs will do it. by the way, speaking of ellis, he just fired his agent because he didn't received enough lucrative offers (even though he just turned down $11 mil/yr), and according to brussard will hire mr. dan fegan. maye fegan will bring him to the rockets for 9? hahaha

 

I think Lin is able to writing on the wall; show you can coexist well with Harden and Howard or bye bye to you. He is definitely not an essential part of our future going forth as we don't need to gamble on potential anymore, but he can still prove himself as a big part of what we now have. It all depends on how he develops his off ball skills.

 

Love the fact you pointed out we have built a 'Big 3' through draft, FA & trade. I hope it stays that way and we can win without a LMA or Love and D-Mo & Jones make great strides this season.

 

The City of Houston is back on the map again. 1st the Texans and now the Rockets.
#Loveitmayne


Great article Clutch.

 

oh don't worry, not disagreeing with you here.

 

Nice article, Clutch

 

"The Rockets also have a preseason game scheduled in Taiwan this year, and if they’d like to survive it, Jeremy Lin should probably be in attendance."

Combine this with the fact that Jeremy Lin has been silent with the addition of Dwight Howard. One has to think Lin is going to be traded after that game.

While I agree with Clutch that a lot of 3-point opportunities can be created by the Howard-Harden combo, my gut feeling is those crazy 120+ point games are going to be rare in the coming year. I am really not excited about regular season scorelines if they were anything similar to what they are getting in the summer league (88,85,85).

 

Should Rockets trade Lin, Asik?
Anytime an elite player in the NBA changes teams during the summer, the organization that acquires him is almost by default going to be the winner of the offseason. So it is that by signing Dwight Howard away from the Los Angeles Lakers, the Houston Rockets are the champions of summer 2013.

The task for Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, coach Kevin McHale and the newly formed star duo of Howard and James Harden is to turn success in July into success in June.

The "most improved" team in any given season, in terms of raw win total, is usually going to be a struggling team that has nowhere to go but up. The real feat is to move from the middle to the top, a trick that Houston might be able to pull off. The Rockets were a good team last season, with 45 wins and a point differential typical of a 50-win club. Their four most productive players -- Harden, Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin -- were all 26 or younger. That starting point is what made the Rockets so attractive to Howard; they're a team in the middle that has all of the traits of a rapid riser.

As of Wednesday morning, the Rockets' outlook has brightened to about 54 wins, the third-best forecast in the West and fifth-best in the league. Likewise, the playoff projection, which is based on weighing the winning percentages of the team's top eight rotation players, also ranks fifth in the league. As a result, my most recent run of simulations -- using the 2012-13 schedule -- gives Houston an 8 percent chance at next season's title. The only teams ahead of the Rockets are the ones you'd expect: the Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder. It's been a tremendous week for the Rockets by any standard.

So what's next?

In the immediate aftermath of Howard's decision to change teams, there was widespread belief that Morey would pursue a third star-level player to complete a new big three for the Rockets. To pull this off, Morey would have to move Asik and Lin. One scenario was to package that duo to the Atlanta Hawks in a sign-and-trade deal for Howard's pal, Josh Smith. But Smith ended up signing with the Detroit Pistons, taking the last healthy All-Star-level player off the free-agent market.

Another early, post-Howard rumor had Asik headed to the New Orleans Pelicans for sharpshooting big man Ryan Anderson, who was off-the-charts efficient when tethered to Howard in Orlando. That whisper disappeared in the wind, as well. The Rockets needed shooters to fill out the roster, and Morey moved to bring back Francisco Garcia and signed Omri Casspi as a free agent. Garcia is a proven commodity, and his off-the-bench perimeter defense will be as valuable as his solid 3-point stroke. Casspi has been an underutilized player during his career with the Sacramento Kings and Cleveland Cavaliers. He might turn out to be the Rockets' version of Anderson, a player whose value appreciates on a good team when he has a clearly defined role.

Let's not forget the collective youth on the Houston roster, which shows tremendous potential for growth from within. Harden, Parsons, Lin, Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are on the upward arc of the aging curve. If Harden gets any better, he'll garner MVP support. Motiejunas, Jones and Casspi give the Rockets three floor-spacing options who could alleviate the team's perceived need for an upgrade at power forward. McHale will have the option to spread the court with one of those players. He also can pair Howard and Asik for stretches in a twin-towers set, as both centers are highly mobile for their body type -- assuming, of course, that Howard returns to full health after a long recovery from back trouble.

The Rockets also can play small, with Harden sliding to the 3. Basically, even as the roster stands today, McHale can roll out an effective lineup of just about any type. That includes one with a traditional 4 if Jones develops into a reliable option. Does that mean the Rockets are done for the summer? They could be, but there still are decisions to be made. In order to accommodate Howard's max contract, it appears that at least two of Morey's four nonguaranteed players will have to be waived or traded. This depends on how the actual salary figures shake out, as my calculations make it a pretty tight fit under the cap numbers released early Wednesday morning. The aforementioned group includes Beverley, Greg Smith, Tim Ohlbrecht and James Anderson.

Beverley will be back, and he might be Houston's most important defender beyond the centers. Because wing defense isn't a team strength, Beverley's dogged effort at delaying opposing point guards from getting into sets will be crucial. Plus, he's just a good player. Smith has been very good at times and likely will be retained. As for Anderson and Ohlbrecht, even if they are let go in order to make the cap math work, they still can be brought back on minimum-salary deals without losing any money.

Houston, of course, will be able to sign any veteran-minimum deals that seem attractive, and the Rockets should be near the top of the list for players in that niche. The Rockets also have a "room exception" available worth about $2.6 million. Beyond the players already on the roster, that is the most likely avenue for the Rockets to add a significant role player. It could happen this summer, but my guess is that Morey will keep that option in his hip pocket while giving his new roster's strengths and weaknesses a chance to manifest. Once the regular season begins, you never know who might spring loose from another roster.

Beyond that, the only real option to shake up the roster is via a trade, and if you look at the Rockets' salary hierarchy, the most obvious candidates to be dealt are Asik, Lin or the two in combination. Again, with the top free agents off the market, I don't expect such a deal to happen this summer. Asik was reportedly less than thrilled by the Howard signing, but he's under contract for two more years. As he saw firsthand in Chicago, and as we saw during Dallas' title run in 2011, there is tremendous value in having two top defensive centers on a roster. The Rockets struggled badly on defense when Asik sat last season. Those days are over.

As for Lin, he might function as more of a second-unit player on the new roster. There are worse fates. In a Manu Ginobili-type role, he would have more opportunities to attack than he had when primarily playing alongside Harden. Whether Lin starts or not, he can be tremendously valuable by exploiting other teams' reserve guards and by keeping Houston's offense humming when Harden sits.

This is all a long way of saying that right now, Morey is in the catbird's seat. He needs to hit the trade market only if a clear opportunity to upgrade presents itself. If so, he can take on a young third star, whose salary would easily fit into the vacated salary slots of Asik and Lin. Or Morey can simply sit back and enjoy what he's already put together. On paper, it looks awfully good.

 

Great article Clutch. No more how great Gerald Green can become,I have seen the future Dan Langhi(Old DD). And the general overrating of our role players.
Waiting patiently for the next trade,is certainly the right way to go.

 

Great article! Thanks Clutch.

The wait is finally over.