[ClutchFans] Lin and Yang: Why Choose One Point Guard When You Can Have Two?

I think coming off the bench has been fantastic for Jeremy just like not closing games has been fantastic last year. Why? If he didn't have to go through all that and ended up playing his driving style game, he might have ended up in a comfort zone and not develop this much during off season.

I think I said it on this forum before and I will repeat again. Playing off the bench for Lin will be positive for Lin in the long term. It will also be an overall negative for Rockets in the long term. As a Lin fan (Not a LOF), I support McHale's inept decisions which somehow benefit Lin and I want McHale to stay for it. As a Rockets fan, I want McHale to be fired, so that we can put things in order and play better basketball and seriously contend this or next year. As a basketball fan, if McHale signs a new contract with Rockets, I will be rooting for my favorite players to be traded somewhere else, so that I can continue watching quality basketball.

 

The question is what is the mean? I wouldn't be surprised he levels out at high 40s for FG% and low 40s for 3P%. If that is the case, can you say "all star"?

 

As a matter of fact, we simply do not know right now. I heard stories that in summer workouts with his brothers (low level competition, but still), Lin hit almost 80% of his 3's.

I can't wait to gather a bigger sample size. The quarter point of the season should be a good indicator, if it's still astronomically high percentage then we wait until half point.

But ultimately, it's the playoffs that really count.

 

The difference between Lin and Parsons is that Lin evened out last year with ridiculous discrepancies between skills.

Superstar right hand + scrub left hand + scrub 3pt shot + scrub TO rate + superstar acceleration + great strength and athleticism + average defense = above average player

Assuming diminishing returns and exponential growth initially and particularly SCALED GROWTH (improving athleticsm and left hand exponentially increases output since left hand improves ur right hand ability as well assuming ur less predictable) and ENDOGENOUS, individual hetereoegnity (difference in potential and hardwork and returns on hardwork by players, intelligence and good identification and use of resources comes in). By improving and putting a little effort in these major weaknesses Lin gets ridiculous exponential improvements.

Parsons however being average - good as an all rounder, will grow less because he needs to share equivalent efforts in2 everything 2 improve at the same rate Lin is, and marginal returns kicks in. Plus being a glue guy he has less chances to showcase his abilities.

 

I got no problem with Chandler being the glue guy - the team NEEDS that.

 

I'll get flamed or banned for this - but I honestly think the Rockets need Lin more than Beverley.

I also think that the "real fans" may have to start admitting that.

 

Starter - 18.8 PPG 6.4 Assist 4.2 TO
Bench - 17.3 PPG 3.0 Assist 3.8 TO

Seems to me he does well whether starting or coming off the bench. So it's Lin the player that is making the improvement and not because of the role that he is now play.

 

Well, how often does Lin get to play 49 minutes on the first leg of a back-to-back? So I highly doubt regression to the mean actually started today.

If you look at all his 5 misses on 3's tonight, 4 were straight on target, just a bit short, which is much more likely the result of his legs still being shot from last night's 49 minutes.

 

At the end of the day it's all about scoring points....so having an offensive weapon like Lin is going to be more beneficial for this team (at least until the get a 4 that can consistently put up a lot of points). The team is deadly offensive since you have Parsons, Lin, Harden, and Howard....any of those can get you 20+ a night.....so when one is down the others will take up the slack. Bev is great because he's all effort and gives Harden/Lin a breather.

 

Can not agree more!
McHale has no vision at all. He is just not smart enough to be a NBA team coach. To be a championship contender? He even doesn't believe so...

 

yea. i think he noticed that too by trying to get closer to the line. Which results in 2 shots made by stepping on the line.

 

That's like saying "My opinion may be very unpopular, but I think slavery is bad".

 

Right? Flamed or banned for saying what is obviously a no brainer thus far into the season

 

FINE analysis sir, mad props to you. I'd discuss in length with you, but my brain is near dead right now, so more to come later.

But allow me to list just one more example/exception before hitting the sack. While regression to the mean is a universal rule, exceptional geniuses and/or hard workers may not fit that bill. Albert Einstein comes to mind. Special theory of relativity was far beyond any scientist's wildest imaginations at the time, but later on not only did he not return to the mean of mediocrity, he came up with the even grander general theory of relativity. And even more, we cannot fathom what he wrote on the note in his still-sealed time capsule. Maybe it's a viable application of worm holes and time travel, which will allow us to harness the power of galaxies and transform us into true masters of the Universe.

Lin went to Harvard with strides and does not fit the bill of the typical NBA player. I'm hoping he could become the Einstein of bball for H-town.

Okay now I got no idea what I just typed. Time for bed. Good night y'all.

 

yes lin is definitely smart enough to realize that and make application of it. now his j is vastly improved and can fake right & go left all the way.


P.S. I thoguht this was funny - Quote:
Originally Posted by tinman View Post
"His name is Eremy Lin cause he got no J."

 

First of all, Lin post-ASB last year shot better, but he was at the level he is now. He threw up a lot of weak game, not just occasional. It's clear he worked very hard on improving his game this off-season and that's awesome - he needed to do that. He's playing at a higher level this season - and he's been a great professional. But as a starter, we wouldn't be putting up 30+ a game because he wouldn't be taking as many shots. The ball is in Harden's hands and that sets a very different tone. COming off the bench his role is different - it's to attack. That's not his role when he is starting. You have to understand that in basketball for a young player they can't easily switch from one mode to another. They need to either feel secure their job is to do x or to do y. Lin to the bench meant the pressure was a bit lower and he was told to do his thing and basically have more fun. I think he needed that and now that he hit a groove you see this team reacting a lot differently. Notice that Harden tosses the ball to Lin a *lot* more. His respect on the team is higher from his teammates and McHale the last 3 games. That's because he stepped up while on the bench. If you don't see the difference between Lin last year to Lin 5 games ago to Lin the past 3 games, than I respectfully say you aren't paying close enough attention and might be too focused on stats.

I think Bev makes more sense as a starter next to Harden - to test that out for a while. Bev brings defense and havoc overall. He also hits the 3 at a high rate - he's having a slump like many of the other guys, but you don't give up on that so quickly. Bev can't make up for Harden's poor D - Bev can't guard two players. But he does set the tone to start the game from a defensive standpoint. And since Harden is the primary ball handler, it makes more sense to stagger Harden with Lin as much as possible. It's the same concept of not playing Asik and Howard together - the TT doesn't work because you need complementary pieces. Bev complements Harden a bit better on the offensive end and Bev can put defensive pressure on the opposing pg. Bev fouling out is ok because you got Lin in your back pocket. The reality is that JH is the franchise player on this team. He's going to get his way and he's the main guy - period. Everyone needs to start accepting that and go from there.

I am not surprised because he worked so hard this summer and I felt he could shoot 40% from the 3 pt line. Do I think he can maintain those numbers? Probably not. He's hot right now, shooting great. But these things wax and wane - we don't know if he'll sustain this or regress back to the mean. 50% from 3 point land is ridiculously good. Usually players that start that hot in the beginning of the season cool off and regress back to the mean. I hope he can maintain it - but keep in mind - we've played 10 games. Still very early and small sample.

Efficiency is only part of it. It's much easier to be efficient scoring 10 points a game than it is to be efficient scoring 30. The reason is that when you are only scoring 10 the opposing defense isn't trying to slow you down as much as part of their game plan. So you get easier shots. Open shots. And the guy who scores 30 has to work a lot more because the defense is going to try to slow them down. Lin has definitely played at a higher level of late. It's not just efficiency - it starts with that, but he's playing with tremendous confidence. I don't think I've seen Lin pull up his dribble to shoot a long range shot over a defender in an unrushed manner like he did tonight. It's been a long time. He's playing on a different level right now. no doubt.

 

That's an entirely different topic of course.

For me when identifying players with very high ceilings, I find the most reliable are players that do NOT have well rounded games but instead have very "lopsided" games, IE are extraordinary in some areas but very weak in others.

In other words, a player with an exceptional right hand and no left hand is *much* more likely to improve dramatically than a player with a good right AND good left since the amount of work it takes to go from good to great is vastly larger than the amount of work it takes to go from below average to good.

It's like the A- theory in college. You have a course which you can study for X hours to get an A-, or 3X hours to get an A+. However, since GPA is 3.7 for A-, 4.0 for A, and generally treated as 4.0 for A+ then it makes more sense to shoot for an A- in multiple courses versus A+ in a single course.

In Lin's case, that he was essentially a mediocre starting point guard with a LOT of weaknesses (poor 3 point shooting, weak left hand, mediocre decision making) and a few Exceptional skills (elite first step, very high ability to finish through contact, and exceptional right hand), then it takes only a moderate amount of work to round out those skills.

In other words, the road for going from mediocre to above average, very good or even great is much shorter than a person with a well-rounded above/average game since getting to Elite in any individual skill is extraordinarily hard.

Most NBA scouts use a similar model in measurable athletic traits like vertical leap, agility tests, acceleration to 40 and 3/4 court runs, etc. The idea is the same, if they're already Elite in a few areas, then it won't take long to get their weaker areas up to speed.

Of course, NBA scouts aren't perfect since they don't always look for every trait that's relevant. Considering that the vast majority of potential draft picks don't even make the NBA, let alone a starting position or better. That a prospect like Lin (who is at worst a mediocre starting caliber player) can be completely missed tells us that they are most likely overlooking some criteria, or worse yet some aren't using meaningful criteria at all.

Anyway, another long post... but interesting discussion. :grin:

 

Absolutely agree. Let's give props to the person who deserves it. I'll bet dollars to donuts that McGake did not expect this at all.

 

Clutch, may I get reinstated (off the bench), pretty please. But seriously, I got the message. I realize how hard your job is and I feel I can contribute positively to the board. Thanks in advance.