[ClutchFans] Keep an eye on Deron Williams, because the Rockets sure will

You have to be realistic about this. Lowry is great, and has been great. He has one drawback, one kicker....it's his body. He's a short, roly poly player that has a tendacy to gain weight and as he ages it will slow him down significantly. Deron, on the other hand, is 6'3". He's a man-sized PG that can defend bigger points like Westbrook, etc.

I love Lowry, I think he's a great player. He has tremendous value because of his contract.

But, when you consider getting DWill, you trade Lowry for DWill in a heartbeat, every day of the week. DWill is one of the top 10 players in the league. And the biggest thing is, Dwight wants to play with him. And Dwight is undoubtedly a top 5 player in the league.

I would trade Lowry to acquire either player. I'm sure Morey would too.

 

None of those guys forced their way anywhere but Melo.

 

Yes, I personally think he realizes the Nets don't have enough talent to do anything with and he isn't giving it his best. I think if you swapped him and Lowry we wouldn't be struggling to make the playoffs. He is that good IMO.

Right...and this is exactly why teams are dying to add D-Will at max $$ but not Lowry. How many teams do you think would give Lowry a max contract if they could?

 

Shhhhh...Lowry is a star player. Haven't you heard?

 

So you're now arguing that the trade market for NBA palyers is perfectly efficient and at equilibrium/optimality....if that were the case then no trades would ever be made since everybody values everybody esle equally and perfectly.

That's stupid for obvious reasons.

But as long as we're beign stupid - if I offered all NBA GM's the choice of equivalent productivity at $6mm vs. at $18mm - how many would choose the $18 mm option?

Basically this is icehouse saying that he knows the future trajectory of Lowry's production and that it can't be at a comparable level of williams, since williams is a "star" and Lowry is not, and can never be...because...because...because...he said so.

 

We aren't really gonna agree about the construction of our team. I see a huge holes on defense at SG and PF. I see big holes on offense at SF and C. This team is constructed for a star if we are magically able to upgrade the SG or SF to a superstar level player. Kobe, Durant, Wade, Lebron, or even Carmelo aren't wakling thru that door. If D-Will is the best star we can acquire then I say pass. He hasn't attracted stars in the past either.

We are better off keeping Lowry and looking to use him and his amazing contract to trade up significantly higher in the draft.

 

Stats, smats. All of those advanced statistics are hypotheticals to try and make educated guesses if the situations were the same. But the situations are never the same for two different teams. If you want to believe Lowry is a better PG than Deron because basketball analytics tells you that he is more power to you. I'll go by the basic methodology that the Rockets would happily accept a straight up Lowry for Deron deal, but the Nets GM would have to be high to do the same. Advanced stats like PER tell us LeBron is one of the top 5 players in league history. There is no advanced stat to tell you that he doesn't seem to want the ball in the big moments. Looking at advanced stats will highlight that Hakeem and David Robinson are in the same field, and we both know that's simply not the case.

 

I just don't see how you can possibly claim to know this to be fact.

What does it matter if no one would give Lowry a max contract. I'm sure anyone trading for Williams would rather not pay him max either, but like it has been stated earlier, perception can be a killer.

Rashard freaking Lewis is the 2nd highest paid player in the league. Someone was willing to give him that money. How much a player makes has zero to do with how good they are or what other teams think about their talent.

 

LOL, I don't like your analytics but I'll trust my hunches...ok Art Howe.

Last time we had this argument, your "hunch" was when you bet me your signature that the government wouldn't sue an investment bank for securities fraud in connection with MBS...which didn't exactly work out for you... So I guess your hunch wasn't worth that much.

 

I'm arguing that if NBA GM's/Owners thought Lowry was in the same field as Williams then he would command the salary that Deron would command. If you think that's stupid then we will just agree to disagree.

My $$ says our GM would gladly choose the $18M option, since he recognizes that the $6M option may be a better value but isn't a better player and definately won't entice any other star to join him.

This is Icehouse guessing/assuming that our GM would happily ship off a package including Lowry for a star PG like Williams or anyone else in that elite category, which Lowry is not and never will be.

 

Not necessarily saying that's a bad way to go about it. Just saying Lowry is not a star player. If you are arguing that he is a better "value" then I'm not disagreeing.

 

So are you saying advanced statistics don't conclude that LeBron is a top 5 player in league history or that David Robinson is as good as Hakeem. A simple yes or no will suffice.

 

It's not a poor comparison. You are overrating our role players and if we have to give up Scola, Lowry, filler, and maybe first rounder for Deron then we downgrade as a team imo. If we have to release everyone on our team to sign Howard then we downgrade as a team. Howard isn't gonna take a pay cut and give up the almost 20 million it's going to take to sign him. Sorry, but Deron, Martin, Parsons, Marcus Morris and Howard aren't going past the first round imo.

Second, how in the world has it worked well for the Knicks? They are stuck with Amare's bad knee and no picks. They are 6-8 and have played one of the easiest schedules in the league. They don't have enough supporting talent cause they traded it all away! We would have to do the exact same thing to acquire Deron and Howard.

I know how good he has been in the past and he is a great player. Again...our problem is not at the 1 and we are going to have to gut our team to acquire Howard. I don't think we even have anything to offer to trade for him either.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I just think we are in a situation where we are stuck in the middle.

 

I don't know what we would have to give up. What I do know is we have quality depth on this team and you say we won't get out the 1st....we are struggling right now just to make the playoffs.

I already noted the Knicks didn't have the type of depth that we have. Additionally, they made other dumb decisions post that trade, like giving Chandler all that money.

 

He may not be a "star" in your opinion, but he is playing like one. He is also on a great contract as well.

 

14 games into the season

6th S.O.S.(hollingers rating)

0.5 games out of the playoffs
4.5 games out of the 1 seed

 

That is stupid. NBA GM's/Owners don't have the option to offer contracts to Lowry and Williams right now. If they did, then you could make a comparison.

In absence of that, their salaries reflect comparative valuations at fixed points in time under certain constraints (nature of the salary cap, other free agents in the market, etc.) by one party (or in Kyle's case, since he was a restricted free agent whose offer sheet was matched, two).

Lowry has improved dramatically since he received his contract. Williams hasn't (and if anything, he's regressed). Right now, Lowry is younger and putting up definitively better numbers on a definitively better team. The fact that he's on a cheaper contract is a bonus.

I don't know what to think of a move for Deron Williams, but I do know using current salaries to justify Williams as better than Lowry is silly.

 

He's getting great numbers on a losing team. Just like Barkley said when discussing Bosh in Toronto "his numbers were great but on those teams someone has to score".

 

I'm not using current salaries. I'm using what each player could command in an open market. Just my assumption, but I doubt there is one NBA team that would give Lowry a max deal. I know that Deron will command max dollars once he is available. Do you honestly think there is one team that would give Lowry a max contract? Do you think our GM would package Lowry for Deron?

 

i love jumping into topics late when all good points have been made and then throwing in my $0.02

imo - this is a mario williams - brooks reed situation. why overpay at one position when you are getting extreme value; especially for a player is very good, but not consistently dominant.

D.Will would be an improvement, but would not have a huge effect on w/l's. I'm also not sold on the fact that he would "lure" any stars here.