[ClutchFans] Keep an eye on Deron Williams, because the Rockets sure will

This is where it gets tricky...does it count if someboyd is making star level contributions (Lowry is currently) and not yet recognized as a star?

Example, by 2003 Steve Francis was a star, making his second consecutive all star team, previously ROY, etc. He was posting starry numbers (20-6-6, 20 per, etc).

In 2002-03 Chauncey Billups was considered a journeyman who was on his 5th NBA team, but was finally starting to break out and playing at <i>star level</i>,; he was posting very good efficency numbers that showed his statistical impact on the game was the equal of Francis (less points and rbs, but fewer to's, etc)

He didn't make the alll star team and become a star until 2006 when he made 5 straight. We all know what happened to Francis after that.

 

No for the following reasons:

- You don't have a chance at attracting other free agents with that player.

- Those star level contributions aren't leading to wins. We still suck.

Now if you think Lowry will surpass D-Will and join the upper tier of PG's then I can see an agrument. But he won't IMO. I bet no team would give Lowry a max deal or give up a boatload for him. Most teams in the league would do so for Williams. I know we love our players but Lowry isn't as good as Williams on the court or off it (as far as putting butts in seats or attracting free agents). He is just cheaper. Yeah, you will have more available cap space by keeping him but what does that matter when no one will come take it.

Go get the star. It's the only way to win in this league.

 

And there lies the problem....I don't think some people recognize how good Lowry is becoming. He is only 25. He plays both sides of the ball. He has consistently improved his game year over year and become a star level player even if he isn't recognized as one. Further, his confidence has exploded and I don't see that changing for the rest of his career.

I think this trade can only be made if you know for sure that Howard would sign here in the offseason. But I don't see that happening.

 

That argument begs two serious questions, aside fromt he fact that you're downpalying what Lowry is doing this year:

1. If Williams is such a star-attractor, why hasn't he done it yet in a more attractive media market? With attractive young pieces to give away like Lopez?

2. Uh, they're leading to a lot more wins than Williams contribution in NJ is doing right now, especially if you measure win-shares.

The chain of logic involved in Williams = Lowry + Scola/Martin/other assets; then

Williams + Trash = the roster

Then somehow trash = Howard/second star - involves a huge logical leap at a certain part of the equation....this logical leap seems more unlikely to me than Lowry continuing his contributions at the current level and becoming a star....

 

I realize how good he is becoming....very good but not a superstar player. Drop any superstar player on our roster, filled with an abundance of great role players, and we would not be struggling to make the playoffs. We overrate Lowry. Do you think Rose, CP3 or D-Will would struggle to make the playoffs with a core of Dalembert/Scola/Martin/Lee/Hill/etc? What about Kobe, LeBron or Wade? Howard? Melo? There is a wide gulf between good player and franchise player. Lowry is not in the latter category and never will be.

 

THIS.

IMO, Lowry is the kind of guy we would all be trying to trade FOR if we didn't have him.

The thing which will get Lowry into that mythical 'elite' status is winning and personal on-court successes.

It goes back to my original question: how does the term 'superstar' get put on these particular players anyway?

Championships? D-Will? Nope. Lots of playoff success? So-so. Great stats? Pretty good. Making other players around him better? Well, in Utah, yeah you could say that. In NJ? Not so much.

It is entirely possible that D-Will is more of an example of how Sloan was a really good hard-nosed disciplined coach than anything in particular about the talent of any one player.

In other words, if Lowry had happened to be drafted by Utah, would Lowry now be considered that 'superstar' instead of Williams? Can anyone honestly say no that that question?

People have to really fight that 'grass is greener' instinct, but we should also trust that Morey knows what he is doing, and cross our finger that freaking STERN stays out of the dang way!

 

He is this year, on a team with better players in a year that D.Williams doesn't seem to be giving his full effort. And we still suck. Do you think we would not have a better record if you just swapped those two? Give D-Will Martin and Scola and see how he does.

If you believe Lowry is better than D-Will based on what you have seen this season more power to you. I highly doubt D-Will will struggle to land a spot this summer, and I'm 100% positive if Morey or any other GM not in Chi, LAC and maybe Boston would gladly trade their PG straight up for him if they could.

 

I'm close to Morey on the stance of why a superstar is important:
1. Playoff basketball 2. Free agent signings

Lowry has the ability to account for both and be a league known superstar if he has an impressive playoff series as a true PG. I think it's a win/almost-win situation because if he plays very well then he can stay if that performance makes another superstar want to come play with him, or we move him for a superstar that attracts free agents. Otherwise, if he plays mediocre, we keep the production:salary ratio, which is still pretty high even if he gives us around 15/7/5/1 and continue to slowly build a winning team.

Currently, Lowry is giving us superstar production, but he hasn't had a chance to show he can carry a team in a 7 game series and until he gets that chance why would a FA superstar run to join up with him?

So to answer the question, I'd keep Lowry and see how he plays this year in the postseason. More cap flexibility and his production is amazing right now.

 

The problem is you gotta take a risk somewhere or the Rockets will forever be a .500 ball club. We know Deron has top PG skills. We dont know if Lowry will ever be that good. There are very few players who get better with age like Billups and Nash did. One thing that you didnt mention about those guys is they got better after being traded and put in a different system. Rockets system relies on his pg skills more than most teams so that should be considered as well.

We know players like Dwight would be interested in playing with Deron. Lowry could be similar to Billups. Good to have on your team but he doesnt attract talent. So even if Dwight doesnt come here, other talented players would be more interested in coming to Houston than now. Where the best player we can get is Dalembert.

Worse case in going for Deron is the Rockets would finally be forced to rebuild if he doesnt resign or stay for 1 year. I honestly would rather see the team rebuilding than see them go .500 season after season.

Lowry is my favorite Rockets player but its time fans stopped getting so attached to players when the team's future is at stake.

 

It's usually guys that greatly increase your odds of winning and can take over games/close games. Last I checked, our best case scenario is to sneak into the postseason and we still struggle to close games (we have no true closer). Yes, I do realize the Nets suck right now but IMO they would be worse if they had Lowry instead of D-Will and we would be better if that swap were made.

It seems that most here agree that we could possibly have a contending team if we had just one superstar player. Yet on the flip side, we think Lowry is a superstar player, but we still struggle to simply make the postseason? That doesn't make sense. Put any decent supporting cast around a true superstar and the team wouldn't struggle to make the playoffs.

 

We don't suck because of Lowry. We are marginal because we have too many flawed players and we don't have enough talent.

 

We do have enough complimentary talent. What we don't have is a star player. Take our best SG, give us a star SG and we don't struggle to make the postseason. Take our best pivot, give us a star pivot and we don't struggle to make the postseason. Take our best PG, give us a star PG and we don't struggle to make the postseason. You guys are dropping Lowry in the star bucket and the on the court production....WINS....don't reflect that. Our team is perfectly built to support a star player. But we don't have one!

I realize it would take some of that depth to get a PG like D-Will, but that again points to him being in that elite category and Lowry is not. Are we really arguing that Kyle Lowry is or will become a superstar player? Is that what it's come to around here?

 

Smart post. My above comment kind of answers this issue.... it IS all about league perception and being a league known superstar. If I ask my friends who play professional sports about another up-and-coming player on a different team, it's a 50/50 shot that they even know more than which team and position he plays. The free agents you want to attract aren't doing market research on the best situation, it's a feeling of excitement that drives these signings and until Lowry is a league known superstar only the most astute FA's would be excited to come to Houston.

So how does Lowry become a "league known superstar"???

Since he isn't going to win the dunk contest (save that for Chandler lol).... Do it in the playoffs when everyone is watching to the #1 or 2 seed and the FA will calls their agents and say, "Send me to Houston."

 

Lopez I heard isn't getting extended. Seems that nj is sure they can get Dwight. Deron is a winner I wonder how long till he's totally out. If their record is complete crap when they get Dwight neither star will be pleased. I'm surprised no ones been moved yet.

 

How well has that worked for NY and NJ?

And D-Will is not on the level of Kobe, Wade or Lebron. That trio can play amazing offense and amazing defense. D-Will is a great player and he is better than Lowry, but he will never be a guy who is considered the best player in the league. He isn't even the best PG in the league. So yeah I think we would still be in pretty much the same position if we had D-Will.

This team has multiple problems and PG isn't one. Our role players are the problem.

 

So, the reason why Williams isn't as good as Lowry this year is becuase he's dogging it - that's a powerful way to lead off.

Anyhow, we can actually control for the quality of the opposition/teammates via adjusted plus/minus and by this metric Williams still comes out as having a much worse year.

But we don't actually even have to give him Scola and Martin - we can give him much better players, say Carlos Boozer, Memhut Okur, Paul Milsapp, - we can give him a whole playoff team...and by looking at his past production, he's still not substantially more productive than Lowry. In fact, teh stats directly refute your argument in that Willliams' individual production goes down when you surround him with other good players, his most productive year ever was last year, so the line that Williams would be posting better numbers with better players doesn't really hunt.

Would Minnesota? No. Would a team without cap room do it? No.

 

I want to answer the number 1 question for you.

When we say that stars attracts other stars, it's true because of the answers those stars give. Dwight would have NEVER listed New Jersey as a team he would like to be traded for if it wasn't for Deron Williams, plus they're friends. The reason why he isn't there is because Lopez has been injured. Lopez is a major component of the trade to get Dwight to Nets.

Also, Amare recruited Melo in New York. (It isn't working out as the roster is currently built.)

Kobe got Pau Gasol.

Hakeem got Clyde, Barkler, and Pippen to come.

I don't think you realize how much of an impact a big named star can do for your team. BIG THINGS.

Remember T-mac and Yao Ming? They got Ron Artest who was perfect for that roster. That team was STACKED!!!! Tmac, Yao, Ron, Shane, Chuck, Motumbo, Aaron, Rafer...... I have no doubt that we can acquire such talents again when we get the HEALTHY stars!

So far Dwight is the most durable big men in the League.

 

Well, it actually worked quite well for the Knicks. They sucked, obtained one superstar which led to them getting another. They went from sucking to a point where even we don't think they will miss the postseason. I'd argue that the Knicks didn't have enough supporting talent around their 2 stars. That kind of differs from our team, with tons of depth that allows us to make guys available.

The Nets don't have any supporting talent around Deron. Another poor comparable.

He was considered arguably the best PG in basketball as recent as 2 seasons ago. If you don't think that has potential impact then please look at the Bulls or Clippers.

The PG isn't a problem but that doesn't make the PG a star player. Some of you are putting Lowry in elite category and that isn't the case.

 

Umm. as I said before, there are stats for this, it's called offensive winshares, and you can also adjusted +/- or just plain old wins & losses - guess who comes out ahead this year?

Basically you're arguing that on the court, if Kyle and Williams both put up the same statline, say a 20.0 PER with the same usage/minutes, etc (basically the same offensive productivity), Williams would lead to more wins becuase it has magic "star" quality multipliers added in.

You're going to have to do better than that, because it doesn't pass the smell test.

 

Our roster isn't really that good this year. Paul and the Hornets barely made it in last season with an arguably better roster; they had 3 more wins than us. This year our bench is close to nonexistent and we have had a brutal schedule, one of the hardest in the NBA (along with Delambert arriving later and working himself into shape) and we're .500.

Deron has certainly been a better player than Lowry, and for longer. I wouldn't have hesitated to include Lowry in a package for him, but this year and last year are worrisome. One wonders if last year's injury has any lingering effects on his shooting, or if it's just a lack of effort from being on a bad team. He'll almost certainly be reupped for the max through a sign-and-trade by someone, and he'll remain an elite passer, but that contract will take him past his peak. The only way I would do such a deal is if Howard was a 100% guaranteed acquisition. Otherwise we're stuck in pretty much the same situation with worse contracts, and Deron's going to want to bolt again. We'd be selling low in that case and probably wouldn't get the value for him that Utah got.