[ClutchFans] Jeremy Lin, James Harden after Rockets' 99-93 win over Wizards

I see where you're coming from but can't say I agree. If you're a starter material, GMs are going to recognize that even if you're coming off the bench. Just look at James Harden, who always came off the bench in his 3 years with OKC and yet got a $80M max deal. Manu Ginobili, one of Spurs "Big Three" also always comes off the bench.

Having said that, I agree the coaches haven't been doing a good job with the Harden/Lin situation, and giving Douglas minutes at the expense of Lin is a poor decision IMO.

 

This is interesting. Everybody talks about Lin dominating the ball but that is a little big overblown. I think what it is is that Lin needs the PNR being consistently run. In NY he was running the PNR over & over again. I think the best example of it was the Dallas game in NY. Mike Dantoni didn't even run any plays. He just ran the PNR over & over & over & over again & Lin was the PNR ball handler with Tyson, Jarred, Novak all setting picks/screens for him.

In Houston not so much. I think Lin's instinct is the PNR & I think he needs a steady diet of it. Hollinger said as much in his insider article. With Harden here he isn't getting as much of it. In NY Lin was running the PNR 50 % of the time of all his offensive possessions in Houston 29%.

So I decided to look into the synergy numbers & it is pretty funny what I saw. So as everyone guessed Harden is a superior spot up shooter to Lin in almost every way.His PPP is 1.05 & he ranks 78th in the NBA. His FG% in spot ups is 41.2 & his 3FG% is 44. Harden is the spot up shooter 7.9% of the time. Now let's compare that to Lin. Lin as a spot up shooter his PPP is 1.01 & he ranks 98th in the NBA. His FG% is 40 & his 3fg% is 36. But the key difference is that Lin is the spot up shooter 27.4% of the time.

So does it make sense that the inferior spot up shooter is spotting up about 3 times more than the superior spot up shooter? I think this is something the coaching staff should try to consider, something that a lot of people have been stressing for some time. Have Harden bring the ball up swing it to Lin. Omer set a pick for Lin so that he has the choice to either score or pass to someone like Harden or Parsons for a spot up shot. Usually what always happens is that the Lin bring the ball up swings it to Harden who runs the PNR to score or pass to Parsons or Lin to spot up & shoot.

Now let us compare Lin & Harden as scorers (not passers) off the PNR. So as the PNR ball handler Hardens PPP is 1.11 he ranks 3rd in the NBA. His FG% is 55% & his 3FG% is 41.4. He runs the PNR 30% of the time. Last season Harden was the best PNR scorer in the NBA so he has dropped a bit but he is still a boss. Compared to Lin as the PNR ball handler his PPP is 0.77 & he ranks 47th in the NBA his FG% is 42% & his 3FG% is 50% & he runs the PNR 29% of the time. Last season Lin ranked 67th in the NBA as a scorer off the PNR & he was the PNR ball handler 43% of the time.

So putting this all together, as you can see Harden is a lot more potent of a scorer off the PNR than Lin although the gap isn't that significant. Harden is also a better spot up shooter. So the question is, should the coaches risk having Harden spot up & shoot more & be the PNR scorer less. This way letting Lin run the PNR more something that he is pretty elite at although not as elite as James. I think this is something the coaches will consider. People just need to be patient.

Now if Lin is a long term part of the Rockets he may have to learn how to score in different ways outside of the PNR. He is a big guard so I think he could learn how to post up smaller guards like Andre Miller does. He definitely needs to improve his catch & shoot game. I think the Rockets also need to stress screen setting by Parsons & Patterson. If all of our front court players could set screens/picks that would make the back court so much more lethal. Look at the Lakers for example, Pau Dwight Metta can all set screens/picks, the Knicks Melo Amare Tyson can all set screens/picks.

Just a few thoughts.

 

You sound as if when needed Lin could just automatically turn into a scoring weapon with a snap of the fingers.

Lin hasn't even become a consistent shooter, let alone good one. How do you expect him to take over the offense if he keeps being a bad shooter? That's why we all want him to shoot more, i.e., to "practice" his jumpers/3s in the games, especially in these low-pressure games like the one against the Wizards so that he can gradually build confidence in his shooting from some falling shots. Plus, it'not that we even want him to press or take contested shots, we simply ask him to just shoot those open-looks and he's not even doing that. He was/has been passing up wide open shots in the games to the degree that even a coach has to tell him "it's selfish not to shoot the open shots". How absurd is that? Also, Harden mentioned in the interviews that he wanted Lin to be more aggressive and not pass up open shots and make unnecessary passes. Honestly IMO Lin being reluctant to shoot open shots becomes almost annoying not only to the fans but also to some teammates.

I don't have problem with Lin eventually becoming a pass-first PG, but not before he establishes himself in the league as a decent/good shooter that commands defensive attention. Lin being unable to shoot will not only make him an offensive liability to the team thus making Harden's and teammates' game more difficult (the reason why Tony Douglas has been effective and played more mins is mainly because he can shoot 3s), but also greatly affect his own game. Like coach Popovich said about Lin: "If you're knocking down shots like that, people gotta come on you and it opens up your drive."

Whatever Lin is thinking, in order for the Rockets to do well, he must be able to shoot and start first by taking not passing up those open-looks. There is just no other way around it.

 

I'm sorry but I disagree with your point. After all Rondo has been a highly rated point guard for years and only recently has gotten better as a shooter. The same can be said of Magic, Kidd and Parker. None of them were good shooters until years after they were recognized as great point guards. It's true that it makes driving easier in the half court offense but these guys thrived in the transistion game.

 

Like there should be only one chef in the kitchen.

 

I knew somebody would mention Rondo to dispute. My post was already long so I didn't address that.

Rondo is a different story. He has always been surrounded by a few lethal scorers and he's never been needed to be a good scorer for the Celtics. The current Rockets team is different. We have only Harden as a stable scorer. Both Parsons and Delfino can be often cold and streaky (although lately Parsons has been scoring pretty consistently) and unlike the Celtics, we need Lin to be an efficient scorer to add an insurance to our offense.

Another reason Rondo's case is different is because Rondo has been playing full time PG on the court and they need him to make plays all the time for the teammates, especially for their top scorers. While we have basically two PGs in Harden and Lin on the court at the same time and the reality is Lin will never be played as a full time PG, so Lin has to be able to shoot and score when Harden is making plays.

It never hurts to be a good shooter even as a pass-first PG. That's why as good as Rondo being already a top passer, he's also been trying to improve his shooting and has gotten better and better.

Your example of Rondo Magic, Kidd and Parker already recognized as great point guards before they were good shooters are debatable. A lot of other factors such as their great defense were taken into account when some people labeled them as 'good' PGs before they could shoot. But I don't believe any of them were considered great when they were still shooting poorly.

If you check the top 10 PGs in the league, there is a reason why almost all of them are good shooters.

 

Yeah to quote Sampson "This is not a democracy'. (Or something like that)

 

Agreed. Lin needs to learn from Rondo.

Rondo in the past focused mainly on assists and shot just to keep his double-double average. He however would step up and start making shots or go to the rim when he saw that his teammates were slow in offense and scoring, especially this season. I heard his goal is to get to 20 pts per game level.

 

I am trying to sum up my own observation of the game against the Wizards last night and all the comments I have read about this game.

I was thinking of stop watching the game, because our Rox should not be this bad with all the turnovers, missed opens, etc.

But if the Rox were playing down at this level because they thought they could bag this game against the lowly Wizards and they could use this to try out some of the plays and sets they need to incorporate into their game for the future, then it is actually something I have been waiting to see.

Hope they have learned enough from this game.

 

An interesting video from John Hollinger on the Lin-Harden backcourt and Dwight potentiall going to the Rockets or Hawks at the end of the season.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8744104

 

I want Dwight or K-Love in Houston

 

I think you're making an excellent point here, torocan.

If I can piggyback on it a minute...?

STRUCTURE is going to be crucial for the Rockets going forward. One of the first things that I believe HAS to be done (after geting a few guys on your team that can play well consistently) is to establish an offensive and defensive identity around your three or four best players.

Right now, even with all the hoopla surrounding their pairing, the jury is still out, more or less, on a backcourt of Jeremy Lin and James harden being successful over the long haul.

I haven't heard anything that silly since Mitt Romney's "...binders full of women..." comment....

The Rockets are currently a rebuilding team. It isn't regarded as such right now, because the Rockets haven't made the "obligatory" trip to the lottery to kind of make that status official for them (and consequently reveal the need that building a good team takes time).

Lin and Harden, I believe, can work and will work wonders together, given time. Unfortunately, all of this hand-wringing so early on in this season just reveals the persistence of the microwave-mentality of our society about a great many things.

If it hasn't worked by two days ago, then scrap it and try something else.

I don't know if Jeremy Lin should be trying to find the right balance with this team...because outside of James Harden and possibly Omir Asik and Chandler Parsons...this team is going to be drastically different as the Rockets build.

And that's where structure would come in. I still don't see anything wrong with establishing (through coaching, most obviously) that the way that the team is going to play offense is through Jeremy Lin.

James Harden is unquestionably the better player between the two. Consequently, Harden needs less accomodation offensively. I understand the need, from Lin's perspective, to recognize and defer to guys who can score and are looking to score...that's the right mindset for a point guard.

The team is still going to be in flux for a while (particularly with the front court players possibly being shuttled in and out), so it makes no sense to establish anything with a Patrick Patterson for instance, who may or may not behere for the forseeable future (the length of both Lin and Harden's contracts for example).

The team (outside of Harden and/or Asik and Parsons) needs to conform to what works best for Lin as the playmaker point guard. However briefly he did it in New York, he impressed the organization enough to place a huge (if coyly understated) permium on his services.

The biggest difference, for me, between James Harden and Jeremy Lin is this:

Jasmes Harden's game has to ADJUST. He already has all of the tools he needs to succeed in whatever role he's asked to play.

Jeremy Lin's game has to PROGESS. Harden's game had the opportunity to progress in Oklahoma City, to the point now where he's arguably one of the 10 or 15 best players in the league. I don't think he has an offensive weakness, honestly...so he can focus more on being the guy that makes sure that, no matter what, the Rockets come out of every offensive possession with a positive.

People call that being a closer. So I guess that's what I'll call it, too, since I like being part of the human race.

That may mean more off-ball movement and cutting (not just spot-up shooting), but Harden can do that as well as anybody in the league.

I don't necessarily like the idea of Jeremy Lin having to do a lot of the thinking for the ballclub right now, but it is necessary for several reasons. As willing as he is, Lin is still essentially a rookie player, and should have a mentor (be it a player or coach) who can give him something to focus on from a team structure standpoint offensively, and see how well he does with that.

I remember when Jerry Sloan in Utah drafted Deron Williams after John Stockton retired. Stockton served as Williams' mentor for his first season, and Sloan had an offensive structure in place that he groomed Williams into. Williams himself, of course, excelled as much by his own drive and effort as anything, but nothing could have been better for his professional development than having, as a young player, a structure in which to grow in his responsibilities as both a playmaker (when to get other people involved offensively) and as a scorer (when to look for his own offense). Williams is about the best point guard in the league at that juggling act.

As I said earlier, all of this is going to take some time. At least a season or so. What should happen right now, though, is to make sure that the offensive structure gets put in place, so that guys can figure out where they fit.

I don't know if that's a Princeton offense or a high pick-and-roll offense or a UCLA high post offense or what. But I do believe the coaching staff has to establish that as soon as possible.

I wouldn't have a problem with Lin calling plays if he had a couple of seasons running an offense under his belt first.

But you MIGHT want to get that offense first.

Just sayin'....

 

I agree. Particularly with the bold. I have been saying this for some time now. I would love to piggy back off of you & torocan.

1)The Rockets need to emphasize screen/pick setting from all our front court players in the starting 5. Right now only one (asik) does it well. Parsons & Patt need to learn this skills

2)Harden & Lin need to diversify there offensive game. Right now they both score off the PNR & in iso's nothing else really, they are both the same player. Both would be wise to add a post game, & some cutting to there game. Also improve there spot up shooting as well. The fact that one is right dominant & the other is left dominant is ideal & makes the fit easier. Because this way you can essentially have the same player attacking from both sides of the wing playing off of each other.

Now to the crux of my argument

3) it is a gamble, but having Lin be the PNR the majority of the time over Harden would be an interesting solution. I was looking into the numbers because I like to show how great of a researcher I am & I posted them above in this same thread, post 82. Essentially I showed that Harden is the superior spot up shooter to Lin in every way imaginable but he spots up 3 times less than Lin does 8% for Harden & 28% for Lin as the %Time that they are the spot up shooter.

4) It would be common sense that we reverse this figure seeing as how Harden is better than Lin at it. But for this to happen Harden would have to be taken off the ball. This is where it gets tricky.

5) Harden is elite as a scorer off the PNR whereas Lin is just very good. Harden ranks 3rd in the NBA in PPP where as Lin ranks 47th.

6) Unfortunately there is no way for me to find out who is the better passer off of the PNR between Harden & Lin. And by that I mean which player is better at passing off of the PNR to a teammate so that they can score a high percentage shot. This data isn't available to the public, only to the media so my data won't tell the full story unfortunately.

7) I digress. So the %time that both Harden & Lin are the PNR ball handler 29% (specifically 29.8% for Harden & 29.1% for Lin). Pretty even don't you think. But like I said Harden scores at a higher PPP than Lin does 1.11 to 0.77. The risk is that do we trust Lin & let him be the PNR ball handler the majority of the time over Harden & let Harden focus the majority off his efforts as a spot up shooter & cutter?

8) That is a tough coaching decision, common sense would say no after all. The focus is to win games & frankly the ball in Hardens hands as a scorer off the PNR will win you more games than in comparison to the ball in Lin's hands. But at the same time you know that you aren't getting the best out of Lin that you could be if we stay pat.

7) How do I know this? Simply because if you look at the Knicks, Lin's former team. Raymond Felton scores of the PNR just as much as Lin does. There numbers are quite identical. Feltons PPP as the PNR ball handler is 0.77 the same as Lins. He ranks 47th in the NBA just like Lin. His FG% is 39 % Lins is 42%. His 3FG% is 61% Lins is 50%. The big difference though is the %Time that they score off the PNR as the ball handler Feltons is 48.2% Lins is 29.1%

8) So essentially Lin's PPP as the PNR Ball Handler is just as good as Feltons while running it at a lower %Time. Last year Lins PPP as the PNR Ball Handler was 0.80 %time 42.8 (close enough to Feltons 48.2%time figure).

9) What do all these numbers tell you, that if Lins %time that he was the PNR Ball Handler were to increase his PPP would also likely increase as well based off of what he showed in NY & in the Spurs game. Therefore the Rockets could play Harden a lot more off the ball (using his spot up shooting & cutting skills over his PNR ball handling skills) & put Lin on the ball (expanding on his PNR ball handling skills & decreasing his mediocre spot up shooting ability).

10) As I said before the risks are there. Would Lins PPP increase substantially to the point that the Rockets can still win games with Harden off the ball? ( I think so) Would increased responsibility as the ball handler be to much for Lin & his PPP would actually decrease? (I doubt it) Would he produce consistently as the PNR Ball Handler or would he be inconsistent from game to game? (Likely but I still think if Lin is playing poorly we can always put Harden on the ball more for that game & that game alone so that we can win) Would it be easier for teams to defend when they know that we have one main PNR ball handler? (Most likely but I think Lin could handle it against some teams if not put Harden on the ball more) In relation to Harden would he be Ok with an primarily off the ball role? (He seems like an unselfish chap)

11) Obviously these are the issues that the coaching staff is dealing with. From what I have seen of the coaches thus far I think they are slowly starting to trust Lin a little bit more with the ball in his hands. The %time that Lin has been running the PNR has increased as the season progresses. It will be interesting to see how this situation continues.

Just a few thoughts, feel free to agree or disagree at your leisure.

 

The reason why i want TD running the offense is primarily to get Lin and Harden in a SG role...The reason why Harden/lin combo sometimes lacks efficiency is primarily bc the guys dont know when to difer and when to be just a scorer...Having TD run the offense with Harden on the floor will allow Harden just to sit out side and shoot the ball, work of screens, and attack the rim...TD does a decent enough job bring the ball up...its really his shot that has been inconsistent, just like the rest of the team...

 

Explain how Lin managed to play with Melo with Woodson as a coach

 

Bring the ball up yes, but not to create quality passes for the most part.

 

Lin can ask Rondo for tips this Friday.

 

It was simple.

Lin ran the offense. He typically dumped off to Melo when Melo had a mismatch or a good open look.

There were no other facilitators other than Lin for the most part. Landry Fields was okay as an off facilitator, but it was unquestionably Lin's show in terms of initiating the offense.

It also helped that he had multiple finishers at his disposal. Finding open looks for players like Novak, JR Smith, Chandler and Melo creates much better results than dropping those same looks to players like PPat or Delfino.

 

Fair enough - the Knicks had a more athletic team and everyone knew their role. Lin usually had at least 1 alley oop per game...Tyson, Fields, Shump and JR all were capable. I think Morris and 2Pat couldn't finish lol.

The Rockets are still figuring things out for their roles - including how to use Harden/Lin together. Might be a long season of up and downs. At least we don't have the Kobe/Dwight losing problem lol

 

I agree with you.