[ClutchFans] Interview with future Rocket GM Daryl Morey

Why is that?

It's hard for stats to confirm two are different, stats often cannot reject the hypo two are identical, if anything.

 

It's really tough to figure out how this draft is going to go. I think it's much more of an educated crapshoot as to who the first several picks will be, compared to most years and, as you say, there are several possible #1's. This could really work into our favor. Like you point out, we may see some unexpected gifts pushed down to us, thanks to some crazy selections. I think the addition of Morey's input, which you would imagine to be considerable, is very intriguing. I'm not yet sold on his hire, but I like that we're getting such a different voice in our selections.

I also think Sam, unfortunately, is dead-on about the holes in our lineup. It's pretty staggering, when you think about it. We have two of the best players in the league, when healthy, and very little to run with them. Our starters, aside from our 3 and our 5, are low-minute role players on our main competitors.

We desperately need an infusion of length and speed, and players that can make an open jumper. Hopefully from downtown, but I'd be thrilled with a couple of guys who can hit the midrange J and actually finish. (yes, it's pretty damned obvious!) If I see another ****load of blown layups and dunks next season, I may just drop dead from frustration.

 

I recognize the difference between a 20 and a 19.9 ppg scorer or a 20 and even an 18 ppg scorer may not be seen as "statistically significant", but I'm not talking about stats here.

Think of number theory - there's an infinite amount of numbers between 0 and 1, or 0 and any number for that matter. If a player grades out at 98.7642 (rounded), the odds of another player being graded exactly - and I mean exactly- the same are negligible. The difference between the players may be statistically insignificant, but if you believe in your rankings like most teams have to do, there's gonna be a better player and a worse player.

 

And this genius scouting staff gave us.... Mirsad Turkcan. Color me unimpressed. Frankly, if we can't determine the best player remaining with any degree of confidence, because the talent gap is so narrow, then we may as well draft for need.

Who has been looking for identical players? Certainly not me. Somebody is confused in this thread, and it's not me.

I agree, but I've never said or implied otherwise. You must be mistaking me for somebody else in this thread.

 

What do you do when everybody has a different opinion? This is when democracy proves its value. Which is why I proposed a democratic experiment.

 

You just went back 9 years. Congrats. The same draft brought us Cuttino Mobley. So because they're not going to be perfect, we should just draft for need? Right.

The point is there's going to be a player considered better than another. Period.

Uh, From Post 94...

So without looking back, I said 20 instead of 18. The point is still the same.

A poll of BBS users is, in general, going to give you people basing their opinions on draftexpress and nbadraft.net. I'm probably one of the more draft-savvy fans in this forum, and I've seen maybe a little half of the first round prospects extensively on TV and/or in person. A poll will give you nothing more than fan preference.

If you could obtain GM rankings of players, I'd be more impressed.

Bottom line is this: the Rockets will have their rankings/grades of players. If the player they like is there, they'll take him. If not there are two options:
A.) They trade up if the cost is right.
B.) They trade down to a team that values another player.

If the scouts see a group of anywhere near 10 players as equal, they're not doing their job.

 

Thank you for proving my point. Cuttino is actually a perfect example of drafting for need. Clyde's retirement that summer put us up a creek without a paddle, and everybody knew it. That is why we drafted two shooting guards that year: Dickerson and Mobley.

Wrong, not because the scouts will be imperfect. This year -- and I want to emphasize that my position applies to this year only -- we should draft for need because the ability gap will be so minimal that even if we lose a tiny bit in talent, the better fit will more than make up for it. Do you understand?

 

(I added some attributions to make it clear who was saying what.)

No. You were talking about trading down to #20 (or #18 if you prefer). At that spot, the chance that the player we need will still be available goes way down. I would never drop that far, unless I received some excellent compensation from the other team.

On the other hand, I was considering the 10 players available, given that we draft at #8.

There is a big difference between the two statements.

 

Except Cuttino played point guard. Good try. (We also drafted Bryce Drew to play point guard)

Again, says who says the talent gap is minimal? You? I see a significant difference between Carney and say Redick. And again, what are our needs? We need a backup 5, a starting caliber 4, a starting swingman to complement TMac, depth at the wings, and a starting our backup level point guard.

In my opinion, where we are, the only player we shouldn't draft would be O'Bryant, simply because drafting a backup for mid 20s all-NBA center with a lotto pick is silly.

 

Nice try yourself. Cuttino was an SG in college, and that was the position we drafted him for, in case Dickerson was a bust. The fact that we desperately needed a shooting guard and took two of them that year is very strong proof that we were drafting for need -- and very successfully too.

We'll see. If there is a lot of swapping of the #8 to #18 spots, then the GMs see a big difference in talent. If not, if the GMs don't bother because they don't see a whole lot of beneft to moving up or down within that range, then I will be right.

 

cant blame the picks, dickerson was from a big time college and great stats.
mobley was a steal.

 

This doesn't even make any sense.

But yes I assume that everybody does not ahve the exact same opinion as to the precise absolute/relative valuation of the 150 or so NBA draft prospects.

PS, how do you know Cuttino was drafted for need? You didn't see Carroll/Rudy's draft board that year unless I'm mistaken. Do you honestly think that the Rockets had Ryan Bowen or Jahidi White more 'highly ranked' as the best available players and then just decided that they should grab Mobley instead? Doubtful.

Since they just drafted their SG of the future in Dickerson, why even bohter with Mobley?

Likely Answer: Cause he was the best available player when they picked.

No. You don't seem to understand the behavioral economics behind this. If all GMs feels that way, EVERYBODY will be trying to move down - it would be totally irrational not too. But in order to actually do so, they'd need to find somebody who feels the opposite way - in other words somebody who values the pick higher. If there is a flurry of trading, that means people are relatively split as to the value of those picks.

However if there is no trading, it could mean that either everybody thinks there is a HUGE drop-off in trading down just a slot or two and they can't recoup value on the trade market, or that there is no difference and hence nobody to trade with.

This of course all assumes something along the lines of perfect information which isn't going to exist. Perhaps everybody wants to trade but they're calling up the wrong trading partners. So your logic doesn't compute.