[ClutchFans] Interview with future Rocket GM Daryl Morey

About the clippers, they have had #1 picks many times. It didn't make the GM look like a genius at all. They started looking like geniuses when they brought in the veterans Brand, Mobley, and nba champion Cassell. I do like their draft pick of Kaman though.

 

Yup. And Elgin just got named Executive of the Year.

That is exhibit A for the oft-stated assumption that NBA GM's have a secret font of knowledge that mere mortals cannot ever posess, which is usually knee-jerk argument #1 against Morey. It is the same kind of orthodox thinking that leads people to say "we need a pass-first playmaker PG like...." and end up making your team worse in the process.

 

they got cassell for marco jaric and didnt they get brand for basically tyson chandler?
hahahaha

 

It's a two step process like he says, finding talent, and finding the best fit. I think the celtics have found some talented players in his time there. they just don't have good chemistry. we'll see how it works here.

 

i liked morey's comment about picking up the best talent available, no "project/gamble because he may fit the system better" pick. it clearly makes sense in the long-run.

what are the odds of us landing a top 5 pick?

 

Dan Oliver probably contributes as much, if not more than Rich Cho. He has been a statistical analyst with the Sonics for two years now, I think. There is a ton of stat related info and articles dealing with basketball on the net. I had no idea how "popular" it is with basketball. I guess it's just been underground for a while and the public hasn't gotten wind of it. With Morey's addition, the public became aware of the stats use in basketball, as in baseball, and I think it's the beginning of a new generation in all pro sports.

 

Very true. And to think, less than a year ago they tried to not let him into training camp. Now that's progress.

 

EXACTLY!

 

Awesome Clutch!

Here's what I got out of it...

First, as expected with statistician, Morey is very high on Bayesian reasoning. One of the things that takes a while to get used to - bad/imperfect evidence is better than no evidence at all.

"You take those varying rules, conferences, and levels of competition into account and weight the use of that information into the final decision appropriately. It is always better to gather objective evidence than not, no matter what the situation. The important step is how much weight you give the objective evidence you have gathered. "

Here's my guess of how Morey works - basically, think of it as a giant formula...there's a production component (stats) that will be weighted based on how good the competition is. Beyond that, there will be grades for potential growth (based on age, level of coaching, etc.), measurables (height, vertical, etc.). All of that somehow becomes a draft grade.

With the first round pick, Morey is going longterm BPA. The guy who sticks out to me is Rudy Gay that could potentially be in range- a sophomore oozing potential and measurables, who was still fairly productive (15-6 with better than 3 steals+blocks). With the same idea, the guy I see as the #1 player on the Morey draft board would be LaMarcus Aldridge (the one other possibility is Bargnani, whom I know next to nothing about). With the 2nd round pick, it looks like Morey wants a guy who's going to immediately be able to take part with the team - perhaps a Steve Novak/Pittsnoggle big man who can spread the floor or a Mike Gansey type bench shooter?

The comment on Spanoulis makes me believe he'll require the MLE to sign him...and that Spanoulis actually is good enough to make it worthwhile. Combining with some of his earlier long-term type comments, I think he plans to go after a younger talent free agent first (like say, the TMac mentioned Bonzi Wells) and then look at bringing him over.

He seems surprisingly sociable, which hopefully will help in the free agent recruiting process. I got a kick out of his last answer.

 

It is awesome. I was excited to see it because we can always count on Clutch to ask the questions Rockets fans want to hear instead of the same old crap ESPN or SI asks.

Great job, Clutch.

 

As usual with all things basketball, the Sonics going "Moneyball" was covered on ClutchFans in this thread last year:
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=91524

 

Jeff...

Clutch/the site has come a long way, eh?

 

One of Moreys brilliant ideas was that Brian Scalabrine signing. Morey came up with the idea that he makes players around him better based on a plus-minus stat that he thought made him worth 2.5 million.

 

Supposedly the Scalabrine signing was all Ainge using brain-type analysis. Saw a post saying that some time back, probably in one of the threads when Morey got hired.

 

I wonder what the numbers told them about Dirk shooting 35% in the series.

 

I can qualify as a statistician myself. However, I think the best role for stattistician in organizations are consultants, VP type, not top man.

 

No, IT'S FREAKIN' AWESOME!!!

Clearly, the Rockets and Clutch are developing a relationship, which is smart on their part, reflecting the brilliance that is Clutch (and the Crew), and the fact that not only is this site teeming with rabid Rockets fans, but it's the best sports BBS in the country, with a truly international membership.

I hope Clutch and crew are given access to some practices, team activities, traing camp, Summer League play, etc. That would be groovy. So would more deals for seating during the regular season. Doing that was a nice move by the Rockets front office towards the end of this year (the end of our year, anyway). It should only get better. They can use the noise!

Outstanding job, Clutch. You rock!

 

I wish Morey was the GM of the Texans, instead. No way we pick Mario Williams #1 if we do any statistical analysis whatsoever.

 

I'm glad to see Morey freely acknowledging that the stats, while important, do not overwhelmingly dominate his thinking. It is slightly reassuring to know that he is not a total numbers freak.

I am pretty nervous still. I wish he would start talking about the chemistry of the team, so I could stop worrying that he would load up on random talents without any thought to how they would fit together. I don't want the Rockets to become the Knicks, part deux.

Which is why I disgree with Morey's stated preference for drafting the best player available (BPA), apparently without regard to chemistry or the team's current needs. He is looking more than 4 years ahead, but we don't have that much time: four years from now, T-Mac could be retired. Whoever we draft this year should fit in and start contributing immediately; this is more important than getting the best possible talent.