I think if given the opportunity and choice to move either player, Morey moves out Ariza to lose the salary and keep him with the flexibility to add a superstar and another really good player.
^^ Stupid post. I could say, "Do you have a picture of Ariza in your pillowcase." It's about the cap and getting a 3rd superstar (and possibly a 4th player that is on star/superstar level). That means Ariza most likely has to go at some point.
Yes, thank you. I had to go without coffee today to prepare for a health screening so things are a blur. I'm ok now. Excellent read and very informative as always. Keep up the good work.
Thanks for the good work Bima. Can you tell me whwt the max salary we can obtain back in a trade is? Assume we are not trading Howard or Harden. I don't mind leaving Ariza out also, I agree he was aquired ot play. Another way to word that is what can be combined to what max trade value. And I gather there is a "now" and a later "later" figrue.
But we don't need to get rid of Ariza's salary to have max to near max space this coming offseason. Ariza's salary is on a declining scale, and with the cap going up it's going to be a major bargain, not to mention he is a perfect fit for Harden and Howard on offense and defense. I think Kostas is far more likely to be included in trade talks for the reasons Bima listed.
Starting on November 16, the Rockets could trade just Terry and Papanikolaou together for up to $15.6M in incoming salary. Throw in a couple of additional salaries (Jones? Capela?) and they can take on even more (figure $18-19M). Combine the Terry and Papanikolaou contracts with the ability to absorb additional salaries with the Lin TPE, and the Rockets could conceivably make just about any trade under salary cap rules.
Really hope we can get our 3rd star via trade, therefore holding onto Ariza and going forward with a deadly core 4 for years to come.
Not sure what you mean by Max Cap Space, but here is what we know now Per Larry Coon a few months ago- http://cbafaq.com/blog/?p=304 However what we know now is that the new TV deal that kicks in at the beginning of 2016-17 will have an effect on the salary cap going up. What nobody knows for sure though, is how the NBA will adjust these cap projections NEXT SUMMER (July 2015) which is a year before the actual money comes in from the new TV deal. Bima himself has said before that he expects a dramatic increase this next year even before the deal kicks in, but I don't think anyone knows for sure how much they will shave off into next year. Here's what we do know about the Rockets cap situation going into this Summer- With Harden, Howard, Ariza, Papanikolaou, Jones, D-Mo, Capela, Dorsey, Canaan, Daniels, Black, Johnson the Rockets will have about 61.8 million in guaranteed salary. We also know that the options of Jones, D-Mo, Canaan, Black will almost surely be picked up for next year. Also they have the Pat Beverley Cap hold when he goes into RFA, and cap holds for any incoming rookies. So if they move or waive Papanikolaou, they could have around 56.9 million on the books. If they move Ariza instead of Pap, they would have around 53.5 on the books. ............................ Assumption time- If for some reason the NBA doesn't bump the cap up from the projections, the Rockets would only have about 4 to 5 million in salary cap to play with. If you move Kostas (4.81) or Ariza (8.2), you can just add to that number. If the NBA does move up the salary cap from 66.5 million, to say 75 million(probably a high number) you get yourself more like 14 to 15 mil to work with before moving Kostas or Ariza. So maybe you don't have to move anyone to get a good player. Maybe you have to move both Ariza to get true "max salary" space. Again... assuming the cap takes a dramatic jump (which is probably wont be so high all at once IMO). ......................... The one thing id say here is anyone that is anyone claiming that the Rockets are going to have this large amount of salary cap space is probably making bold assumptions. I definitely see the Rockets having cap space to play with, but wit or we are going to need a HUGE jump up from the NBA (like the 75mil number I mentioned) to get in that ballpark. Also the most important thing to factor= if the NBA boosts the Cap up that much next year, its not just the Rockets that get that jump up. Every other team in the NBA will have that jump up too which will make free agents that much more expensive. I'd be a little cautious to suggest the Rockets are going to have "Near Max" or "Max" salary cap space unless they are gutting their roster once again which I doubt.
Ummmmmmmm............yeah................duh! Spoiler Because Spoiler somebody Spoiler is Spoiler always Spoiler getting Spoiler traded
Bima - In your opinion, would it make sense to acquire a large contract to fit in the Lin TPE from a team looking to avoid the tax penalty (e.g. Memphis, Toronto) to pair with another contract (e.g. Terry) to acquire a star player at the trade deadline? Others have metioned it, so I was thinking you could actually take on a contract from Memphis (Tayshuan Prince) or Toronto (Landry Fields) and require them to send us back a pick (possibly a 1st as both are legitimate playoff contenders and the pick would likely be low) so they can avoid the dreaded cap penalty tax. (You send them a future 2nd round pick in exchange.) Prince would be my personal preference. Then around the trade deadline you send Terry + Prince + MEM 1st (which actually may be owed to CLE) + NOP 1st for STAR PLAYER (Rondo, et. al.). Crazy or nah?
That's exactly what the Rockets did by acquiring Terry plus picks for non-guaranteed contracts. At this point, unless the player they want is one of the 5-6 highest-paid players in the league, they probably don't need to make another move like that for another large contract like Prince. Terry + Papanikolaou + a couple of extra contracts is enough to trade for almost any high-priced player. Meanwhile, if you have to send out 4-5 guys to match salaries for the star player, the Rockets could take back additional (smaller-salaried) players from the other team using either the Lin TPE or the Minimum Salary Exception.
