[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: "Total Rebuild" Edition

This chart below probably isn't accurate to the single dollar, but should illustrate the math that BimaThug laid out in his summary:

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Name</th><th>Notes</th><th>2012-13</th><th>2013-14</th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Martin</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,439,675 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Luis Scola</td><td>Amnestied</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Lowry</td><td>Traded to TOR</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Lee</td><td>Traded to BOS</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Goran Dragic</td><td>Signed with PHX</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>The Mustache of Maturity</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$2,096,760 </td><td>$3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Morris</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$1,905,360 </td><td>$1,987,320 </td><td>$2,943,221 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Chandler Parsons</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$888,250 </td><td>$926,500 </td><td>$964,750 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Greg Smith</td><td>Partially Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Derek Fisher</td><td>Waived/Dead Money</td><td>$644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Waived</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lamb</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$2,020,200 </td><td>$2,111,160 </td><td>$2,202,000 </td><td>$3,034,356 </td></tr> <tr><td>Royce White</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$1,645,440 </td><td>$1,719,480 </td><td>$1,793,520 </td><td>$2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$1,361,400 </td><td>$1,422,720 </td><td>$1,483,920 </td><td>$2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>Terrence Jones</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$1,485,000 </td><td>$1,551,840 </td><td>$1,618,680 </td><td>$2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Leuer</td><td>Waived</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Brockman</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Shaun Livingstone</td><td>$1M Guaranteed</td><td>$3,500,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Forbes</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,500,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lin</td><td>Signed</td><td>$8,366,667 </td><td>$8,366,667 </td><td>$8,366,667 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Signed</td><td>$8,366,667 </td><td>$8,366,667 </td><td>$8,366,667 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Toney Douglas</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$2,067,880 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jerome Jordan</td><td>Waived</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jorts</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>JaJuan Johnson</td><td>120% Scale</td><td>$1,089,240 </td><td>$1,136,160 </td><td>$2,049,633 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>E'Twaun Moore</td><td>Waived</td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Sean Williams</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM (including Non-Gu)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$55,103,371 </td><td>$31,548,205 </td><td>$26,845,837 </td><td>$10,563,351 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>20</td><td>11</td><td>9</td><td>4</td></tr> <tr><td>Total Non/Partial Guaranteed/Team Op</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,083,534.50 </td><td>$8,009,671 </td><td>$13,055,724 </td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td># of Non/Partial Guarant./Team Op</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>6</td><td>5</td><td>6</td><td>4</td></tr> <tr><td>$ Below $58.044M (include Non-Gu)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$2,940,629 </td><td>$26,495,795 </td><td>$31,198,163 </td><td>$47,480,649 </td></tr> <tr><td>$ Below $58.044M (excl. Non-Gu)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$9,024,163.50 </td><td>$34,505,466.00 </td><td>$44,253,887.00 </td><td>$47,480,649.00 </td></tr></table>

And a list of "assets" not incurring cap hit:

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Other Assets</th><th>Notes</th></tr> <tr><td>TOR 2013 1st Rounder</td><td>2 way protection, unprotection in 2018</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL 2013 1st Rounder</td><td>Top 20 protection, unprotected in 2018</td></tr> <tr><td>Houston "1st Available" 1st Rounder</td><td>"Crappy" pick, only available subj. to Stepien Rule</td></tr> <tr><td>Houston 2015 (and after) 2nd rounder</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>CHA 2013 2nd Rounder</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>NY 2014 2nd rounder</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>NY 2015 2nd rounder</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Sergio Lllull</td><td>Draft Right</td></tr> <tr><td>Furkan Aldemir</td><td>Draft Right</td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Diebler</td><td>Draft Right</td></tr> <tr><td>Marty Leunen</td><td>Draft Right</td></tr> <tr><td>Brad Newley</td><td>Draft Right</td></tr></table>

To me, the math suggest that the Rockets should be ready to walk away from a Dwight Howard deal unless it is done on the Rockets terms.

Specifically:

1. With the Lin and Asik signings, the Rocket will have a VERY difficult time to clear sufficient cap room to both re-sign Howard in 2013 and add a max-level player, especially if they take on any kind of "bad contract" from Orlando. A re-signed Howard, Lin and Asik will make $37M by themselves, add $7M in "bad contracts" and cap holds for remaining roster spots and you won't be nearly far enough below the cap to sign, for example, Chris Paul outright.

It would seem that the only way to pair Dwight with a Chris Paul will be through trade and to make such a trade they would need to (1) keep some assets even after the Dwight Howard deal, and (2) not clog up their own cap situation too badly.

2. The Rockets, as some have pointed out, are looking at a pretty decent situation even without a Dwight trade. They have a number of promising youngsters, perhaps 2 lotto picks in 2013 (their own and Toronto's, and if their pick doesn't end up in the lottery it would mean one or more of these young guys will have increased his value tremendously), up to $9M+ in current cap room after cutting non-guaranteed guys, and last but not least, $27M to $32M in expected cap room in 2013.

The team can maneuver in the upcoming year to get far enough under the cap to either chase a couple of young max-level free agents (Harden, Taj Gibson, etc. if they have not yet signed extensions) or be in prime position to trade for a significant player with either their current young guys or their upcoming draft picks. For example, if luxury tax is an issue for OKC, they may be amendable to trading Harden for a high enough draft pick or a good enough young player still under the rookie scale deal.

If the Rocket trade for Dwight plus some bad contracts, these are the kind of opportunities that they'd be walking away from.


In any case, this seems to limit the range of Dwight Howard (or Andrew Bynum, really) deals that would make sense for Houston. They can and should just walk away if the demand gets too high.

 

Couldn't they just trade away Asik after Dwight resigns though?

 

They can, but you need somebody to make the trade with you. You can also trade away anyone else on the roster. The fact remains that you need somebody's help to make trades and this complicates things.

 

Don't they also need Omer's permission to be traded. I believe for a year he can't be traded without his consent. The same goes with Lin.

 

Don't forget that Charlotte 2nd round pick - should be dang near a low 1st round pick + that contract is not automatically guaranteed :grin:

 

In reference to trading players in the event that we do land Dwight. if you attach enough assets to a bad contract your bound to find a trade partner. Im sure Morey will have a plan in place to pair Dwight with CP3 in the event that we land Dwight. I think this might be one of the ways we try and convince him to stay.

In regard to trading Asik, i think he could be an easy contract to move. I also think that because his contract wasnt matched that he can be traded 15 december without his consent. However i am not 100% sure.

Morey will do whats best and wont sell the farm for Dwight. He knows that he cant leave the cupboard bear because he needs reasons to keep Dwight.
Hopefully this happens early August so we can all go back to our offseason activities and stop all the obsessing.

Anyway, enough of my speculation.

 

Honestly, Morey has the Rockets in a great position to rebuild. All the key players are under 25. Kevin Martin's contract is coming off the books as well. We have our probable lottery pick next year, the Toronto pick, Dallas pick and Bobcats 2nd rounder.

My guess is close to the trade deadline we take on a bad contract or two for more assets.

Howard will be 28, is coming off back surgery, has a questionable work ethic and is a malcontent. Long term I think we are better getting high lottery picks the next few years.

 

Late to the dance as usual.......but I couldn't pass up the
chance to give "KUDOS" to Bima! The article was long but
it felt short because it was very well written! I think I speak
for the majority here when I say thank you "Professor" for
sharing your knowledge with us! I always feel a little bit
smarter after reading one of your articles...

 

Don't believe so. This works only for the player's old team if they match.

 

Two things,

1.) I think Lin will be a cash cow and would be easily tradable at any point. If by some small chance CP3 was ready to sign, Sterling probably would be exactly the type of guy who would covet a low cost high revenue guy in a potential SnT.

2.) Taj a max contract guy?!?

 

Bima with a shout out from the Rockets

Houston Rockets @HoustonRockets
Speaking of #FF. In addition to @RocketsJCF true Rox fans should follow @htown747 4 editorial comments & @BimaThug 4 all things cap related.

 

Really? So when is the earliest they can be traded then and what are the rules that go along with trading him?

 

I like Taj Gibson and Houston would be lucky as hell if they could but at a Max contract? Oh hell no.

 

Congrats on the shout out and thanks for the explanation. I assume the same goes for Lin as well.

 

"Houston, I am come!"

 

yes, same situation, same rules

Bima, you've truly arrived when Morey follows you and offers you a job as a part of his geek squad.

 

So, you are saying Clutch and Rocketgirl are not special?

 

Ha ha my sentiments exactly. You guys are all very good contributors especially regarding the cap. Not sure why lately you haven't been as supportive with the Howard trade but other than that I agree with all of you 90% of the time.