[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update (3/26/2012)

The big difference being that dragic is taller and plays defense and passes and has a cool nickname and can play offense.

 

It's been 1 year. Prior to that it's been "building around Yao [possibly]"

We also made the "basketball reasons" trade - so technically it's been half a year.

Your impatience is forgiven. I'm hoping we can pull off another move in the off-season that rivals the "basketball reasons" trade [but this time no Stern please]

 

So, now that we pretty much know where the team is picking (barring a 1.8% chance of the Rockets getting a top 3 pick), I've decided to put together a few quick tables updating the salary cap situation.


First, here's what I consider to be the "Baseline Scenario," in which the Rockets doesn't waive any of the non-guaranteed guys, uses the "cap hold" on all of the free agents and rookies except for Camby (so the 2012-13 $ amount for Motiejunas, 14th pick, 16th pick, Dragic and Lee are their cap holds):
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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> $11,519,840 </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $6,698,565 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $6,210,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> $5,560,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> $4,010,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $885,120 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith** </td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $788,872 </td><td> $884,293 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $788,872 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $788,872 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td> $788,872 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td> $- </td><td> $1,519,400 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> $2,943,221 </td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick</td><td> $- </td><td> $1,371,200 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> $59,413,267 </td><td> $56,677,658 </td><td> $28,385,597 </td><td> $16,305,797 </td><td> $7,982,686 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>15</td><td>17</td><td> $9 </td><td>4</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> $(1,373,267)</td><td> $1,362,342 </td><td> $29,654,403 </td><td> $41,734,203 </td><td> $50,057,314 </td></tr></table>

Under this case, the Rockets don't have any meaningful cap room.


Second, we have the scenario where the Rockets aggressively tries to open up cap room for a max player. This would require them to (a) waive Dalembert, Simpson, Fortson and (b) renounce FAs Dragic, Lee and Camby.

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> $11,519,840 </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $6,210,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $885,120 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith** </td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $788,872 </td><td> $884,293 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td> $788,872 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td> $- </td><td> $1,519,400 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> $2,943,221 </td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick</td><td> $- </td><td> $1,371,200 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> $59,413,267 </td><td> $40,331,349 </td><td> $28,385,597 </td><td> $16,305,797 </td><td> $7,982,686 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>15</td><td>12</td><td> $9 </td><td>4</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> $(1,373,267)</td><td> $17,708,651 </td><td> $29,654,403 </td><td> $41,734,203 </td><td> $50,057,314 </td></tr></table>

This will give them roughly $17.7 mil in cap room, enough to make an offer on a max player. I don't think this is very likely since there is only one player able (and allowed to under the rules) command that kind of max money, Deron Williams, and he is highly unlikely to sign in Houston (many teams will be competing for him, with Dallas being a rumored to be a strong contender, and NJ Nets being able to pay him the most).

However, it's good to know that this can be done cap-wise should Williams chooses Houston.


Third, here's what I consider to be a more or less likely "in-between" working scenario in the absence of a trade. The team waives Dalembert, Simpson and and Fortson, renounce Camby, uses cap holds on Lee ($5.56 mil) and Dragic ($4.01 mil) and the rookies (14th, 16th pick and Motiejunas). This will give them roughly $8.1 million in cap room to play with, either to pursue an outside free agent (only really useful guy I can see in this price range would be Kris Humphries) or to facilitate a trade.

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> $11,519,840 </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $6,210,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> $5,560,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> $4,010,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $885,120 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith** </td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $788,872 </td><td> $884,293 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td> $490,180 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td> $788,872 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td> $- </td><td> $1,519,400 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> $2,943,221 </td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick</td><td> $- </td><td> $1,371,200 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> $59,413,267 </td><td> $49,901,349 </td><td> $28,385,597 </td><td> $16,305,797 </td><td> $7,982,686 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>15</td><td>14</td><td> $9 </td><td>4</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> $(1,373,267)</td><td> $8,138,651 </td><td> $29,654,403 </td><td> $41,734,203 </td><td> $50,057,314 </td></tr></table>


There are a few restricted FAs that the Rockets might try to make a run at (Eric Gordon being chief among them). They probably open up a few million $ more in cap room if need with some trades in order to gain the necessary cap room (or, alternatively, renounce Lee or Dragic or go crazy and use the amnesty clause). My guess is that the Rockets never get to the stage of making an offer that the other team can match, but will instead simply agree to an unsigned contract amount with a player and see if the player's original team is willing to pay more than the Rockets are or work out a sign & trade (like what happened with Marc Gasol).

 

1. I read a couple sets of different numbers for the minimum. Just decided to pick one set of numbers for the tables since the difference is, as you said, rather small.

2. I agree that there will most likely be trades, whether big or small (in terms of quality of players and in terms of the salary involved). Daryl Morey has already suggested that it's unlikely for them to actually pick 14th and 16th-- which would give the team 3 rookies on top of Marcus Morris, who didn't see many minutes this year.

In terms of such trades, I have to think that Dwight Howard is still their target. Otherwise, there are also Bosh and Gasol (I think Morey is hoping either Miami or the Lakers crash and burn in a dramatic fashion in the playoffs, motivating these teams to make changes) and some other "impact" guys. Barring the bigger deals, perhaps there will be trades involving the draft picks (like moving up a few spots, perhaps to 8th-10th?).

3. One thing to keep an eye on: Barring trades (and amnesty) the Rockets are projected to have 9 players making $28.4 mil in 2013-2014. Unless the Rockets lands that "impact player" one of the things they'll keep an eye on going forward is to maintain cap room/flexibility for the 2013 offseason, when Dwight Howard and CP3, among others, may become free agents.

 

how would the outlook change if we traded kevin martin to the twolves for capspace and their #18 pick? (or perhaps pekovic if we can pry him)

adelman wants him, and the t-wolves have room I believe (I don't know their holds) and that could give us much more flexibility for trades cap wise after that.

edit: also doesn't camby have a cap hold of like 19M?

 

Thank God for you dudes who let us understand where we stand cap-wise.

I would say, If we trade Lowry to Portland or some such team (+ one of our picks, depending how high we want to get in the draft) for a lottery pick, that could free up another $6,000,000-ish. If Minnesota waives Martell Webster, along with Brad Miller retiring, they might be able to absorb Kevin Martin for the #15 pick.

I'm not saying these things are really likely, but certainly options that Morey should explore.

Great job, Carl and bima.

 

Can't edit my reply above.

Minnesota wound up with the...what? #18 pick?

If we could lose Kevin Martin's salary for a top 20 pick, I'd be okay, even if he's worth more, especially to THAT team. I just don't want to take back salary, at least, I wouldn't take back any of the crap they'd offer.

 

Pretty sure that's not possible as Portland won't have the cap space to absorb Lowry on draft night (2011 salary still applies).

 

We should take Thabeet back.:grin:

 

Can't trade expirings

 

I think Gerald Wallace or Omer Asik are good targets with that 8 million scenario.

 

You guys make it sound like DMo will definitely be coming over next year. I know Morey said he would but has DMo said anything?

 

Also I thought we were going to resign Camby. Or are we just going to release his cap hold then later sign him at the vet's min or something?

 

I'm sure we won't renounce his cap hold, unless we know that player X is ready to sign with us, but yes, that's the thought.
I'm guessing it will probably will take a little more than than the minimum though. I'd say either a short MLE deal or a longer deal (3-4 years with a non-guaranteed year at the end) for ~$3mil.

 

Just for s's and g's, are we even allowed to trade for partially guaranteed contracts that we can just flush (Webster, Miller)?

Also, what on that roster (TWolves) would they yield for Martin, given that they know he's worth a lot off our roster, but that we would ask for someone not named Ridnour, Johnson, Milicic, even Beasley (we have 3 3's already)?

I'm taking this thread on a tangent and if we need to get it back on track, please, someone be my guest.

 

Pekovic....