[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update (3/26/2012)

Thanks for the update Bima. As always, well worth the read.

 

Nice work on the Fisher buyout, a tiny detail that about 5 people will possibly care about.

I really wish Larry Coon would update his FAQ sometime soon; the answer he gave you with amending the option seems to directly contradict what he wrote earlier:

You definitely have to hand it to Fisher's agent as well; he managed to strike a deal where if Fisher gets a vet minimum deal somewhere next year, he'll have only lost ~$150k in waiving his option, and he'll be able to play on contending teams of his choice.

Bima, do you have any info on Scola's last unguaranteed year? That is, what are the conditions for it to vest, and how that might play if he is amnestied in the summer of 2013? From what we saw with the claiming of Travis Outlaw, it seems like teams must submit a flat number for the remaining seasons of the contract during the waiver process, and that IS set-off from what the team still owes the player. I personally think there will be a number of teams that might sign Scola for $5M+, making the cost of waiving him substantially less, especially if it means opening up $10M in cap room, and Patterson and Motiejunas are breathing down his neck.

Obviously the preferable route is to trade him at the deadline for a low first rounder and expiring contracts, but I highly doubt that Les Alexander will ever sign off on such a blatant tanking move, and dumping pricey contracts in the offseason usually ends up costing draft picks (e.g. Kirk Hinrich + #17 to the Washington Professional Basketball Club).

 

I'm reading away, having good thoughts, enjoying the thread then POW, this shows up. Please, Da, recognise this as a positive thread.

 

Fantastic as always.

Based on my reading of everything, if we were to trade Lowry, Martin, and all of our draft picks (however many there will be) for Dwight Howard, then wouldn't we be able to sign Deron Williams to a max deal while maintaining the cap-holds for Dragic and Lee? And then wouldn't we be able to go over the cap to resign Dragic and Lee as our own FAs? If we could, we could look like this next year:

PG: Williams/Dragic
SG: Lee/Budinger
SF: Parsons/Morris
PF: Scola/Patterson
C: Howard/Motiejunas

Best team in the NBA, IMO.

 

I feel like McHale after he reads one of Morey's reports, "So basically you're saying we have no cap space to sign any free agents if we want to keep our draft picks, Clee, Donatus, Dragic, Dalembert and Camby." I think I could have told you that.

Morey has already given us some clues as to what he will do.

Morey said Donatus will be with the team next year. Add his salary to the cap.

Morey will play the restricted free agent game with Lee. He has always done that in the past and there is no reason to think he will do differently. He will let the market determine Lee's vallue. So add his cap hold to the cap.

We have to pay 1.5 mil to Bear anyway. Can we get a better center for 5 mil anywhere. Add his extra 5 mil to the cap.

Morey wants to keep Camby and Camby wants to stay here. Morey would benefit to sign him rapidly but as much as Camby likes Houston he is not going to do it for the minimum. It will take some time for them to agree upon a salary. SO add his cap hold to our cap.

We will have at least 1 draft pick. 15 or better. Add that to the cap.

The biggest question is Dragic. I recent poll on here has him as our most valuable player. I do not have proof but I got to believe Morey knew going into the trade deadline he could sign Dragic. Otherwise he would have traded him. I say this because Morey is to smart to let one of the most valuable assets on this team walk away for nothing. Plus Dragic loves it here and wants to be here so I suspect Morey has a pretty good idea that he can re=sign Dragic and probably about how much it will cost. So count his cap hold on the cap.

Which means we have no cap space. These are all no brainer moves for Morey. DWill will not leave NJ to come here and there are no other max players worth signing. This imaginary flexibility to sign some grand free agent does not exist. The best free agents we can sign are already on our squad. Our best way to get a star is to trade for him by using some of our assets and Martin's 12 mil expiring.

IMO the most important thing on Moreys Agenda would be to wrap up Dragic to a deal. Moving forward a trade is our best way to get a star. Of course we could just amnesty Martin to clear space for the right piece. But maybe DHoward will be in the same boat next trade deadline. Maybe the Gasol deal is renewed. These are all more likely than signing a great free agent with cap space. Basically you have to gut the team to get your star. And there are no stars coming here. Morey is too smart to do something so stupid.

 

If we get all 3 first rounders this year, I seriously doubt Morey would be looking to sign and add 3 rookies to our roster. He will almost certainly be packaging those picks to either move up and grab a better player or try and pick up a star from another team.

 

1st - Thanks Bima.

2nd - This is what I was afraid of. Same team as this year looking for 2013. There is only 1 person worth max money and he's heading to Dallas. Anyone else is going to be overpaying like Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay. And it's not worth the gamble to release what we know for someone who very well could be less of a player than those we released.

2012-13 - the sequel to 2011-12 - fight for the 8th seed II

 

I did, I think it is awesome, love Bima's writing, just hate where the team is right now.

DD

 

If the Rockets don't pick up Budinger's option he becomes a restricted free agent.

 

True, but we're not going to get much in the way of a star for three mid-late first round picks. It looks like at best we'll have 13, 14, and 21. If we packaged them with Lowry, maybe, but it's just not looking like a great market this summer. Our best hope was for the Knicks to fall apart and land at 6-10 but that isn't happening anymore.

D-will is the only guy on the radar that may be moving -- all the other stars are pretty well set on their teams. I think we'll be in this same holding pattern until we get Scola and Martin off the books next summer.

 

I still think it was a huge mistake not trading Martin for an expiring or at least a smaller, multi-year deal at the trade deadline.

12.4 M? That could be used to re-sign Dragic AND Lee, both of which I think are more valuable to the team than Martin.

 

The ending was depressing- same old same old wait for an opportunity; meanwhile, all the good players are drafted with the highest picks or signed by teams that already have stars.

 

Untradeable because of his shoulder injury. I think the Rockets knew how serious it was and that's why his name was kept out of trade talks.

This off-season will get interesting. Evan Turner had four head turning games right before the deadline that took him off the trade table but he went back to disappointing only one game after the trade deadline.

Do the Sixers make him available again in the summer or do they like the promise and shop Iggy instead? They supposedly liked a Martin for Iggy swap in the past but the Rockets were unwilling.

With Parsons and Scola showing they can pass the rock along with Camby who is also skilled at passing. Does this make a slasher like Iggy a better fit with the current Rockets?

 

So basically we're going into next year with the same team as this year. And last year. And we'll grab another 14th pick.

Mediocrity treadmill.

 

Thanks for the update Bima.

Of the free agents mentioned, I think you have to try and re-sign Lee, Camby, and Dalembert based on performance and costs. The key question for me is how we can move KMart's $12 million/season off the books and use that to free up cap space. He's obviously been struggling a little this season, but I'm curious as to what type of value he holds around the league. I recall Cuban speaking highly of him at last years Analytics convention, and there's got to be a market for him somewhere....

 

Does next summer mean 2012 or 2013?

 

Bimathug,

Thanks for the update.

One question: To the extent that the Rockets have some cap room left over after taking care of higher priority items, it seems that Chase Budinger would be eligible for a "Nick Collison Style Extension" where the team "renegotiates" his 2012-2013 contract upwards using their cap room for that year in exchange for smaller salary in future seasons (in essence, a heavily front-loaded contract). Is this correct even under the new CBA?

Budinger would be entering the 4th season of a 4-year no-rookie-scale contract, thus, I think, eligible for extension (and renegotiation upwards given the cap room).


If the rules apply and the team has some cap room, it would seem to be a good fit. For example, if the team has, say, $6 million of cap room left (after spending $ on other better available options), They can set up an extension where Chase gets paid $6.885 million ($6 mil more than his current 2012/13 salary) in 2012/13 and $1.5r million for each of the next 3 years. The total value of the contract would be the same as a $10.5 million extension for 3 years (which, I think is a fair price for Budinger), but the cap impact (and trade value) of the contract would be much better.

 

Could be either. really, if they play their cards right. As Bima said, the team can clear enough cap room to chase a max-level FA in 2012 by letting some guys go. If the max level guy (or other better option) isn't available, the Rockets have the ability to simply bring back their own FAs and, assuming these guys are not overpaid, have sufficient room to make a run at another max level FA in 2013 again.

They also still have the amnesty clause in their back pocket should it become absolutely necessary to use it.

 

I suspect Morey would amnesty Martin if he had to to sign DWill and retain Lee's rights.