I wonder if D-Williams will get himself up for this game, ala last season when he rebounded with 38 points. Last year everyone was coming at Lin, I wondered if that was the case again this season, after all who wants to get beat by the asian kid (yes I am asian) To test the theory, I’ve analysed the performance of Point Guards matching up against Lin in all of Houston’s games to date. This made most sense as it would be a point guard who would be most likely to give a 110% effort being Lin’s direct opponent. Now to come up with a way to statistically measure whether players were still getting psyched up for games against Lin. If Player X was keen to give one of those 110% effort games, being more aggressive, it is pretty safe to assume they are going to be more aggressive on the ball. For point guards, this translates to trying to score more and generating more assists. Taking every regular season game, I compared the point guard’s box score of that game to their season average for Field Goals Attempted (FGA), Assists and Points. From the sample space, I removed games where the Point Guard who started was not the regular starter (eg Duhon starting for the Lakers). This left me with a total sample size of 38 games. Across these 38 games, point guards lining up against Lin had more FGA, Assists and Points compared with their regular season average. The results: FGA up 9.7% Assists up 8.4% Points up 12.7% Of the 38 games, 26 times the point guard took more shots than their season average. In the cases where the point guard took less shots, some of these games were complete blow outs (eg Parker, Westbrook). One simple flaw in the analysis above is that it doesn’t take into account minutes played, and in particular overtime games. To refine the analysis, I worked FGA, Assists and Points on a per minute basis. The results: FGA per minute up 7.0% Assists per minute up 5.0% Points per minute up 8.5% Houston’s higher pace of play may also skew the numbers slightly, but I think the results are compelling enough to show that a trend has been demonstrated....that is being yo Jeremy - you may not be playing as well this year, but I'm still coming at you!
Loss. We could have easily lost last night after being ahead like 20 with that run of the Hornets. This team shot well last night, that's it. They live and die by the 3 (which is a bad way to be) and the Nets bigs are way too good for Asik.
better shooting and better defense is the reason we won, but is that really sustainable? people are saying lin played a PG and had more freedom, but really though, it was still the same one-dimensional offense they were running during the losing streak.
In the blowout loss, Brooklyn played none of its starters over 32 minutes. In the blowout win, McHale played no starter less than 32 minutes, except for Asik who had 4PFs and had arguably his worst game as a Rocket.
Houston's pace of play definitely skews the possessions per minute. The level of distortion depends heavily upon the opposing team's Normal pace. This can be MUCH larger than you would think. For example, the NYK normally play at a pace of 92.8 possessions per game. In the Houston vs NY game where Houston was able to impose it's will, they had 100 possessions. The league average pace is 94.3 possessions per game. Houston's average is 99.2 possessions per game. That means that on average, FGA and Assists for ALL opposing players should go up approximately 5% assuming a normal distribution of plays when they're on the Court with Houston. We also have to remember that our team defensive efficiency has not been great, so an elevation in scoring percentage and assists should be expected from multiple teams. So no, the sample size isn't sufficient to tell us much about whether PG's play harder against us in terms of using FGA or Assists per game or per minute as a reasonable baseline. If I was trying to extract data to support a hypothesis of opposing PG's stepping up their game, I would probably start with more team relative stats like the percentage of team shots they take on the floor against Houston versus generally, the ratio of shot attempts to assists (implying that they may be trying to go at Lin specifically), and the average ratio of offensive plays to Fouls they are drawing. That said, even those statistics are non-conclusive. If the Houston PnR defense is notoriously weak, it would be perfectly logical for an opposing team to specifically game plan to do more PnR's for their PG's, just as it makes sense to post up continuously if you have a substantial size differential.
My God, you dig deep, ain't you Hope you can account for all these stats. the perk of being Asian, Lin
Yes, I'd rather we play the right way and lose over playing the wrong way and win. Playing the right way (unselfish team ball) does not guarantee a win, but it guarantees growth & improvement over the long run.
The 3 point shot is becoming increasingly important for most NBA teams. If a team doesn't have a quality low post threat then that's how the game should be played. The key for the Rockets is to play good defense in order to get easy points in transition. The Rockets can win without shooting great from long range, but they have to play defense. If the Rockets pick up some new players that have good low post skills then the Rocket offense will probably change. But in the meantime we have to try and get easy baskets on the break, drive to the hoop for easy baskets and fouls, and knocking down the three.
Durant goes off on us, again. It's been a while since I've done that. That being said, the new winning streak exclusively depends on my availability to state the obvious about Durant's omnipresent offensive dominance.
Turn-over and rebound are two keys to this game. Hopefully Asik and Smith ahve a good game tonight, or maybe PP still has performence like last night, then we will have a good chance to win it.
I'm still not convinced that Lin is the critical piece; but I do think when he plays well it is a sign - like a barometer reading -- that the entire team is playing the way they should be. In case anyone missed the George Karl quote from a couple of days ago: "But with Lin, as Nuggets coach George Karl pointed out, "I still think he's the motor of their team, and when he plays well, they have a good chance of beating people. ..." http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/ci_22437660/nuggets-journal-take-look-at-jeremy-lin-now
