[ClutchFans] For Rockets, pushing Parsons to early free agency suddenly makes sense

Unless something is missing....like a team uses their designated slot to give him a 5 year deal and then the Rockets match, but not sure if that's allowed.

http://rockets.clutchfans.net/3407/houston-rockets-salary-cap-james-harden/

http://rockets.clutchfans.net/3455/chandler-parsons-contract-analysis/

 

Bird Rights makes sense since Nikola Pekovic just signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

http://nba.si.com/2013/08/14/timberwolves-nikola-pekovic-agree-to-five-year-contract/

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/CBA-111128/how-new-nba-deal-compares-last-one

 

You are right, Boozer was restricted. But that was before the Arenas rule and because he was a second rounder like Arenas, Cleveland couldn't match. They didn't have the cap space and he signed an offer sheet above the MLE. So, he was essentially the same thing as unrestricted once the money went above MLE.


Here's a list of teams with significant cap space in 2014 as of today:
ATL - max
CHAR - max
CLE - max
DAL - max
DET - max
LAL - max
MIL - max
N.O. - max
ORL - Max
PHI - Max
PHX - max
Sac - max
SAS - max (only if they drop Parker or Duncan retires)
TOR - max (only of Gay opts out...not likely)
UTA - max (will most likely use their cap space to take on dead money and pick up draft picks just like they did this yr with GS)
WAS - max

This is flexible and some of these teams' cap space will change status with trades over the next year. But just looking through these team, they all have max space available and could offer Parsons a max 4-yr deal. The question is do you really think it is realistic that they would do that? Me, I don't think so. Perhaps Cuban would just to be difficult and screw with us. And in that case, I'd say let Parsons walk to Dallas and screw with their cap. But I think Cuban is too smart for that. He's going to try to get a true max guy and another really good player to go with Dirk. Cleveland? They're stashing for a possible Lebron return. Some of those other teams already have young SFs that they are grooming. They're not gonna pop out $50 million for Chandler. Realistically there's only about 6-7 teams at the most who would possibly be interested in trying to bid for Chandler. Knowing we are going to match any reasonable offer...how many of them are going to waste their time. Knowing that to have any chance of getting Parsons they are going to have to overpay...which of ATL, DET, MIL, NO, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC is going to do that???? (I say probably none.)

So, what would a team like Orlando offer Parsons? That's probably a team he'd consider jumping to since he's from there. Their GM is the new breed. He isn't going to overpay. Would he even offer Parsons 4/45, maybe 4/48?? Remember they've got Harkless. I doubt if he offers more and I doubt if he goes that high if he even made an offer. Morey is sitting there with 5/50 or maybe 5/55 and a championship contender??? And the ability to structure that money with a signing bonus up front so the back end of it has a lower salary???

The market has changed. Paul Millsap just got 2/19. Josh Smith just got 4/54 and all the NBA guys I talked to said he got more than he should have. Yes Batum got 4/46 last summer. He's a pretty good player. Gallo got 4/42 last year. Deng is coming off a 6/72 deal. Marion is coming off a 5/40 deal. Gerald Wallace got 4/40. Jeff Green 4/40. Those are some comparables for Parsons. He's somewhere in that mix of player.

Here's another factoid: Parsons would have to earn over $14 million in 14/15 to equal what Tristan Thompson, the #4 pick in Parsons draft class will earn through 14/15 if Thompson's 4th yr option is picked up. Parsons would have to earn over $10 million in 14/15 to equal what Biyombo, the #7 pick in Parsons' draft class will earn through 14/15 if his option is picked up. You could make quite the case that Parsons is a top 5-7 player in his draft class. So my point is I don't think paying Parsons $10-12 million in 14/15 is unreasonable at all. And we can give him 5 years with a partial guarantee on that 5th year. Just being realistic I think we'll get him re-signed for 5/50 at the most and probably less than that. And that will be a reasonable contract for Parsons in his prime, starting at the 3, either the 3rd to 5th best player on a championship contender.

I don't see any way that Morey lets Parsons walk away from us in unrestricted free agency.

 

This is why I love this site, because of analysis like this.

I don't think Parsons is going anywhere. He's too much of a steal and while we don;t have him by the balls contractually, we do have the upper hand. And he clearly wants to be here. He has made himself into one of the leaders on this team and that is indispensible - and he knows it.

I see him as our potential 4th star.

 

Nice thread, i can see him bolting to the hills for a team who overpays, no way Morey gets rid of our cap flex in 2015 buy making him a RFA, i would much rather go to UFA way and hope his loyality signs with us.

 

Well, agree to disagree. I don't think Parsons is such a huge talent above Lin, Harden and Howard are. Even last year, Lin was third in win share according to Morey, above Parsons. Parsons was a better shooter, but a lot of his shots were assisted by Lin or Harden. If Lin can improve his shooting % he can be up there in being a very good to great starter. As mentioned by the other poster, good/average starting PGs normally makes around what Lin makes right now. So he could get offers around what he's getting now or a little more if he improves. You don't need to be an all star to get that amount. It will depend on the landscape in a year or two and how Lin performs. That's what can't be predicted, but we've seen teams give good contracts to veterans, and Lin will have had a few years experience by the end of his contract.

 

Follow Miami's blueprint and continue to draft well

 

People on CF seem to be preternaturally focused on a third star. Is their any actual evidence Morey is looking for one? And if so why? With the addition of Howard would there be enough shots to go around to keep three franchise players satisfied? Miami, with 3 top 15 players, may the the exception. Did they have it all worked out before they signed? And Miami's big three may become victims of the luxury tax in the next year or two. I believe that the model franchise of the future has one franchise player, two all-stars and four above average players on their roster. Plus a competitive bench. A seven player playoff roster and the depth to compete in the regular season. Every top end player that is added to a roster subtracts at least three decent players from the competitive bench players. Unless, of course, the owner is Russian.

The basic question is why follow the Heats blueprint? That plan was laid out before the current CBA, and is probably not supportable now. To assume Morey is blindly following the Heats model is ludicrous.

 

if his goal was money, he's almost literally the type of guy that would be better playing out his qual offer than take a lowball.

 

Is there evidence? depends what level you want? credible sources? yes, signed documented proof? no

Why? because three stars have always trumped two stars in the titles races, it was only expansions diluting talent that led to three stars ceasing to exist, free agency has restarted it. Injury derailment has been the only thing that has really kept any 3 star team from winning titles, the nba is littered with the corpses of not good enough championshipless 2 star teams.

Is there enough shots to go around? the Miami tri take as many shots together as say Harden, Howard and Aldridge take apart, so yes. The Miami trio are unique in that they were all high volume scorers.

The new cba makes 3 star teams easier to manage, not harder, but with caveats. Old cba contracts become awkward because they're so much higher than new maxes, plus the role player market is no where near as overpaid. Those 10 million per quality starters (unless a defensive center) are the biggest wastes of money in the nba, OKCs problem was that they were also paying Ibaka $12m and Perkins $7m. Let's say they could replace the 2 of them with Marc Gasol on $16m, what would they do....

 

I agree with almost everything you said, but the question I have for you is do you really think that Bosh is superstar talent? Is Wade still a superstar? IMHO, Miami going to the Finals three years in a row is more confirming how great LBJ is, then confirm that the three Superstar system is what wins championships.

That said, if the opportunity to obtain LMA for Asik and Parsons arose, I would not question DM's decision to move forward one bit. I'm not really sure if he would do it though, as Parsons was a major factor in bringing in DH.

Not to be a homer, but I do not think that any other team in the NBA has the type of 2 Superstar talent that Houston does. OKC is an interesting argument, but there is something to be said about a big man/SG combo (see: Shaq and Kobe).

 

It doesn't matter if you think he is better, worse, or indifferent than any other player on the roster. The point is, IF the Rockets believe he is worth a damn, they can afford to over-pay to keep him, and use their flexibility shortly after to make financial adjustments later down the road.

There is no indication that even if they have to over-pay to keep Parsons, that it would necessarily have any impact on their decision moving forward with Lin. Asik.... well of course... backup center at that rate is an expensive luxury that virtually no team can keep long term. Plus, he's going to leave in free agency regardless to a team that would allow him the opportunity to star & play a larger role.

The only thing that can make that a decision that would force Morey's hand is if for some reason Lin reaches superstar Chris Paul level status, and is going to command max dollars in free agency in 2015.... which is a pretty damn good problem to have.

If he's NOT at CP3 superstar status in 2 years, the Rockets have the option to simply let him walk in free agency, or if he's as important to the team as you think he will be (even in a supporting role), Les has the option with his Bird rights to pay the lux tax to keep him... in that case they are probably a 75 to 80 million dollar a year team.... which In the scheme of things, isn't that bad if they are that good of a team.

 

I never cared much for the "contract extension not in the team's best interests". Makes me wonder if bima is a manager or an IT guy to say that.

Unless LeBron or Durant or Love said "Hold a spot for me" (and even if that fanboy fantasy were possible, WHEN would it happen?) at some point Morey will have to show that he actually gives a you-know-what about a player or two on the team (other than the superstars that he [thankfully] acquired).

Parsons wants to be here. He might not quite be our Ginobili-in-his-prime, but he's pretty darned good.

 

If you take a closer look at my prior article, what I ACTUALLY wrote was that (1) a "pure" extension was not feasible because the CBA didn't allow the Rockets to give him anything close to his market value; and (2) a renegotiation (which can only be done if the team is BELOW THE CAP) was not in the team's best interests because it would preclude the addition of a second star player.

Since I wrote that piece, the Rockets have added that second star in Dwight Howard and are now over the cap, so now neither an extension nor a renegotiation is plausible or even possible.

Given the Rockets current situation/status with Harden and Howard, I've slowly come around to the idea of re-upping with Chandler--as a free agent, NOT an extension--in 2014 versus 2015 . . . although I'm okay with the Rockets exploring either alternative.


As for Ben's article, another possible benefit (which has helped sway me to some extent) to declining Parsons's 2014-15 option and re-signing him as a RFA is that the (presumably) lower annual salary will likely mitigate the total luxury tax payments the Rockets would have to make if they continue to add quality pieces to their core (i.e., Taxpayer MLE guys in 2015 and 2016).

If Les Alexander truly is willing to go into luxury tax territory over the next few years (starting in 2015) with a contending team--and I have no reason to believe he will not--the savings of a lower annual salary for Parsons could save the Rockets more in total luxury tax than they could save by keeping Parsons under his current contract for one more season.

It may be a close call on that, but it's worth considering when doing the analysis.

 

A useful exercise is to list all of the teams with max or near max cap space and to then list all free agents to be. The top tier free agents almost always get maxed out by their current teams, so most of them will not change teams. Many if not most teams make poor decisions and talk themselves into paying a glorified role player like Chandler Parsons something close to the max. I see some poorly managed teams on this list of teams with projected cap space. So does Daryl Morey, and so does Parsons' agent. I do not accept the premise that Morey is going to suddenly abandon his focus on VALUE and start handing out blank checks just to keep the team together. This is not the way to build a basketball team and it's not the way he builds a basketball team. Parsons at four years, $32-$36 mil is solid value. Parsons at four years, $48+ mil is not.

All I'm saying here is that the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior, and that we should not ignore the possibility of Morey trading Parsons after the season (when the parties are deadlocked in contract negotiations) for a pick somewhere in the middle of the lottery, e.g., #10 overall. I trust that a team with excellent player evaluation skills, such as Houston, can and will find better value in a stacked draft at #10 overall than they are going to get from Parsons at $12+ mil/year. I again point to the George Hill trade, where San Antonio decided to let Indiana overpay Hill; Kwahi Leonard is a better player than Hill and a MUCH better value.

I'm not saying Parsons gets traded, I'm just saying that that's a possible outcome, with potentially excellent results.

 

Parsons camp:

- I've been severly underpaid for three years now (end of 2013-2014).
- Pay me now or I'll take the best offer in 2015.

Morey's camp:

- We have you under contract through 2014-2015. If you don't take this offer, you sacrifice one year of market pay and you take the risk of a significant injury.

I'd like to think they could come to some reasonable middle ground on this. Start at $8 million with 7.5% raises over 5 years. That's $46.5 million with maybe a player option 5th year.

 

Since you see teams that will overpay Parsons....which teams are they? Name them. And then tell us what they will pay.

 

Sounds about right to me, ASSUMING Parsons has a great year this year where he at least slightly improves his performance over last year.

 

There is a difference.

Ben DuBose(The Cat) has been professionally covering sports for several years. Most of the articles on BR are written by regular fans.

If you cant tell the difference between the quality level of what Clutch allows on the CF blog and the crap posted on Bleacher Report, then I would say that is your problem and not ours.

 

I was questioning why you would think Lin would get less than what he is getting now, if he's still on the team in a few years. If he's still on the team, he has improved, if he's not on the team then either he hasn't improved or he is traded to get another star. He doesn't have to play like CP3 to get what he is currently paid or $1-$2 million more. I believe $7-9 million is about what average starting PGs gets, those that make less are either long-time vets who have maintain the same level for several years, declined in skill level, or those that are coming off of a bad year.