[ClutchFans] For Rockets, pushing Parsons to early free agency suddenly makes sense

Yes, good job on the Article.

CP needs to continue to play well, and then better. And, more importantly on this roster moving forward, he needs to be wanted by H2H. If he is, if they do, Parsons will be paid.

I suspect, even in this CBA climate, Chandler's bling will be in the 4/40 neighborhood.

 

I was shocked at how much Chandler improved last year. I do think his defensive game took a step back as he shouldered a lot more of the offensive burden. I would be amazed if he is able to take another jump forward. I expect he settles in around last years performance. Maybe a bit more efficient on a few less shots/minutes. For that kind of player, I am fine paying 8 million or so.

I believe the true role for Parsons would be to focus on gaining some poundage and becoming our starting PF.

 

Clutch did a podcast on it just after the Howard rally.

 

nice piece, Ben, thanks

 

I know it's sad to think but I can just see a team like Orlando offering 12+ million to bring him back home. No way morey brings him back for that, but his services will not be forgotten.

 

I would assume that the Rockets front office has already done their research to figure out which year is likely to have a better (more team cap-friendly) Market for free agency, and that will ultimately be a big deciding factor for which year they decide to pay Chandler.

What the Rockets will be projecting will be -

-Teams that have cap space
-players that will either drive down the price with supply or drive up the price with limited supply

Here is what next Summer potentially looks like-

1st tier free agents- (If they opt out or go to RFA)

Lebron, Melo, Bosh, Wade, P. George (RFA), G. Monroe (RFA), Cousins (RFA)

2nd tier Veteran free agents - If they are not extended or re-signed first

Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Luol Deng, Granger, Dirk, Pau, Bogut, Gortat

Upcoming young players that might also hit free agency due to RFA-

Eric Bledsoe (RFA), Avery Bradley (RFA), G. Hayward (RFA), Evan Turner (RFA),

-So with those names there, you have to think that teams with a large amount of projected cap space, 10 mil +, will probably either go for several players first like George, Cousins, Monroe, or Bledsoe, and view Parsons as more a secondary star player.

(* keep in mind that many teams saw how Houston got Harden, and will position themselves for these guys. Cousins looks to be the most likely target)

Also the former all-stars listed are going to make Parson's market very challenging for a team looking to bring him in as a secondary player when they could spend the same amount to get a Danny Granger, Deng, or Pau Gasol for around the same amount they might be able to get Parsons for. The only upside to getting Parsons over a player like that is his youth.

................................

Point is, if the Rockets want to get Parsons on a reasonable contract, the Summer of 2014 might be their best bet.

Your one wild-card to worry about would be a team that projects Parson as high caliber enough to be a future cornerstone building block enough to blow their capspace on him next Summer.

(Washington, Dallas, Orlando, Detroit might be teams to watch out for)

The only problem with Houston going this route with RFA is that, much like Minnesota with Pekovic this year, Parsons could be in purgatory for quite some time, and might have a long summer of waiting for another team to finally make a competitive offer the Rockets could match. However, I think both parties would handle it in a very professional way.

I personally think RFA in 2014 is the way to go when it comes to re-signing Parsons. In the Summer or 2015, Parsons looks like he would be potentially a top 5 free agent with the much lower class of free agents projected to come available. Also, with the way teams are learning how to manage their cap space better and better every year, I think the competition for Parsons as an UFA in 2015 is WAAYY too risky. Alot of teams with alot of money to spend will be going after him.

 

Hunh? Whachoo talkin bout, Willis?

As far as Parsons, I just don't see Morey letting him go. I know Morey would sell his own mother and maybe one of his children if he got the right deal, but Parsons seems more of a long-term lock for the team.

Unless Morey can flush the contracts of Asik and Lin to pony up for another superstar.

 

No one should be considered a long term lock. This includes chandler, of the right deal comes up or the right player wants to join h-town I feel Morey won't hesitate to let parsons walk.

Everyone needs to realise Morey is always looking for an upgrade in every position.

All u have to look at is his trade history.

 

You are correct, but I would assume that the only upgrade that Morey would see with sending Parsons in a trade would be for a true blue 3rd star player.

I think the value they assess with Parsons goes beyond who he is around the league as a player asset, and asses also the impact he has on this team. On this team, he is most likely to be the glue that holds the team together.

There is a reason why Morey gave up the chance to draft Rudy Gay for Shane Battier. Shane was valued higher on a team that already had Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady because of how he complemented and elevated the games of the core pieces to equal many more wins for that team, and much higher chance to win a title.

The same goes for Parsons whose value with Morey is much higher than his true market value. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Morey wouldn't even trade Parsons for LaMarcus Aldridge.... because the impact of losing what Parsons does for the core players on and off the court is great than that which Aldridge brings to the team... despite how much better he is as a player and asset... and this is no shot to LaMarcus Aldridge at all.... he's a great player.

I believe there are very few players in the league that Morey would trade Parsons for to where the addition of that player would bring in more than losing Parsons would offset.

 

What if we ride out the year with Asik and Parsons becomes "too" expensive?

If we make some noise in the playoffs, it will be because a third star emerges and steps up. If Asik isn't moved for one by the deadline, that guy would be Parsons.

In this kind of a situation, it is not difficult to imagine Fegan pushing for the Rockets to allow Chandler to test free agency early. The question now becomes whether or not the 25 yo Chandler Parsons is worth the Batum-esqe money he could command.

Parsons is awesome, but I am not buying that he is the ideal 3rd star next to Harden and Dwight. That has already been done with Rashard Lewis and Dwight in Orlando. Bottom line, I think a strong shooting, rebounding and willing help defender at the PF spot is much more important.

Considering this hypothetical scenario, I think Morey gets that 3rd star + strong role player with an Asik + Parsons package.

 

Give himself a big hug and feel blessed to have such problems? As should we all if we get to the Finals this year?

 

There is no such thing as too expensive. If they out perform 10 million bucks a year, that means that one of them become a legit star, which means that we would have our big 3, which means we probably made at least the WCF.

If we reach the WCF, we would keep the team together and let them grow as a team while adding veteran help with the MLE.

 

Correctly valuing Parsons is where Morey earns his paycheck(outside of acquiring superstars in back to back years).

Parsons is the type of player that I would worry my team overpays. He isn't exceptional at any one skill, but doesn't have any major weaknesses either. Euphemistically he is a "glue guy". Otherwise, "filler". The epitome of a MLE type player.

I would give him a few million extra to maintain chemistry, but paying him anything over $10M is a sure way to bury your team.

I know he is a fan favorite, homegrown player, and media darling. All the more reasons why I am relieved that Morey will be in charge when it comes time to either pay him or cut him loose.

 

I'm afraid Parsons could end up getting offered a lot by some desperate team (like Charlotte) who overrates him.

 

I see what you are saying, but:

commanding $10+mill =/ deserving $10+mill of our cap space

Luol Deng is going to test the FA waters after this season, don't you think a proven performer like him is more deserving?

 

I'm sorry but Parsons is better then Deng at this point of their careers. Parsons can legitimately enter the 50/40/90 club if he works on his wing threes and freethrows. That's how good Parsons is.

 

Everyone seems to be worried about the Rockets "Overpaying" to keep Parsons, but then people throw out the number 10 to 11 million. What is the big difference if they have to pay an extra 1 to 3 million extra per year if it means keeping the band together for the foreseeable future?

I hope people realize that the MAX Parsons can receive in free agency is 13 to 14 a year million based on where the Salary cap is set.

In theory, the Rockets could keep the same team in tact, and give Parsons the Max next Summer, fill out the rest of the roster with minimum players, and come in around 76 to 77 million in total salaries, which is 10 million less than Brooklyn has committed to just 10 players.

Being that it would be Houston's 1st year being over the lux tax, they would not be subject to the repeater tax, and could either trade, renounce, or resign for less Lin and/or Asik to then get under the lux tax the following year (Summer of 2015).

So worst case scenario (The Rockets have to overpay Parsons at the MAX), and without trading Asik and/or Lin, the Rockets still barely see any major luxury tax ramifications.

 

My point is that he won't get over 10 million a year unless he makes a jump in production which means he is better than Deng.

 

When do we have to pick up the '15 option by?

 

Tyreke is making 11 million dollars this year. You don't have to perform all that well to get an 8-digit contract.