[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston's Future: Dollars and Sense

There will be many teams for seeking Bosh trade if he decides to leave, Dallas is just one of them. Right now Houston's chance is not high unless Yao has been shown to be a star again.

 

I don't know if I'm that convince he wouldn't consider moving to Texas though. Maybe it's all smoke from his end. Who knows at this point right now. In the end, it's about who gives him the best chance to win along with money.

 

But how many teams have assets that can help a team like TOR? That's the question though. There aren't many teams out there that have true assets.

 

Awesome - I was looking for this right when the trade went down. Very timely post. Thanks for sharing your wisdom with us!

 

Even if Houston is far enough from home, will be consider himself "the man" if he is playing beside Yao Ming and Kevin Martin?

 

Clutch, thanks for the kind words.

Also, thanks to everyone for reading the article, whether you liked it or not. Just trying to spread the knowledge.

Okay, I'll try to answer as many questions as possible. Sorry if I can't get to them all.

I think the Rockets will pursue a sign-and-trade arrangement with a big name like Bosh or Stoudemire, or perhaps will upgrade the roster via a draft day trade, but I don't necessarily think that a quiet offseason (other than re-signing Scola and Lowry) will be viewed internally as a "failure" by any stretch of the imagination. The Rockets have assembled a roster that, with a healthy Yao Ming, can contend. While they'll certainly look to continue to upgrade, it's not the end of the world if the Rockets end up with the same team (plus Yao) next season.

(1) The benefit of scaring off teams is that Scola and Lowry will be far less likely to receive lucrative offers early in the free agency period. That said, once all the big names are off the board and the free agent shuffling has largely died down, THEN you will start to see some teams take a chance on extending an offer sheet to a restricted free agent. That is what happened a year or two ago with Josh Smith and Atlanta. The Hawks let it be known that they'd match just about any offer sheet. It wasn't until late in the offseason that the Grizzlies said, "What the hell?" and signed Smith to an offer sheet. The Hawks then matched and reaped the benefits of not having to pay Smith as much as they would have if they had signed him outright.

(2) The time sensitivity of a sign-and-trade for a major free agent is due to the fact that several teams are holding open their cap space for that player. A player such as Bosh will need (and want) to make a decision on a new team fairly early in the free agency period. those teams can't hold their cap space open forever. Many big names already have the details worked out by the time the July moratorium on signings ends and free agency begins. Once Bosh makes a decision (on which under-the-cap team he'd be willing to sign with AND on a list of potential sign-and-trade destinations), the Rockets would likely need to act fast to get something worked out. Scola won't want to sign in July for below what he and his agent are asking for, when they can continue to shop Luis's value around the league in hopes of getting a more lucrative offer sheet. We'll see if a major sign-and-trade deal happens for the Rockets. It certainly will be interesting for us fans!

The Rockets CAN include both Battier and Jeffries. In fact, that would probably be Morey's first preference. But why would Toronto want both of those contracts? The Rockets would basically have to clear out the cupboard of all their trade assets (Budinger, Llull, New York picks, Rockets' own future picks, etc.) in order to get the Raptors to agree to take on the salaries of both Shane and Jeffries.

My point was that one of them would NEED to be included in a straight up trade for a max-level free agent (vs. a three-team deal).

The problem is, the Rockets need to make a decision on Chuck's option BEFORE they can extend new contracts to Scola or Lowry. So, in that sense, they're flying blind when trying to factor in how much Scola and Lowry will end up costing them.

The good news for Chuck if he is re-signed to a one-year, league minimum deal is that he would then be a "1-Year Bird" free agent. The Rockets would not be able to trade him next year without his consent.

 

Morey is always 2 steps ahead when making any move so I am sure he knew getting Bosh in the offseason would be VERY hard but by loading up with as many bullets as possible it gives then a fighter's chance.

 

I'm playing dumb here but if we traded Scola + Battier + 3 Million cash considerations wouldn't that work? ESPN Trade machines say's " Cut 2.9 Million from the Rockets incoming trade value to make this trade successful." The 3 Million Cash would be that filler?

Of course the Raptors wouldn't just want that.. So

Scola + Battier + 3 Million Cash + Rockets 1st round Picks this year, Rockets 2nd round pick next year, + Knicks 1st round pick in 2012.

That way we are not committed to paying our 1st round this year since it would be twice the cost considering the Tax luxury issue.

 

Between a hobbled Yao Ming and a borderline all-star, I am sure he does. It would be nice trio to compete against the other 3-star teams like Duncan/Parker/Ginobili or Garnett/Pierce/Allen.

 

That is a good question, but I assume that they are a few teams, besides Mavs, teams like Heats, Suns, Cavs, and Lakers. Many teams will ask, but do not know who will get him.

 

BimaThug needs to post "REP ME" in this thread, so he gets the credit he deserves.

Great work.

 

If he is, don't be surprised if Morey makes a move for Amare. I think Bosh and Amare will be Morey's main targets this summer. He's tried to trade for Amare multiple times already -- I don't think he's scared to give him the max.

I don't see why he wouldn't. There's no question in my mind that he would immediately be the best player and number one option on the team. I think he said the "I want to be the man" statement in reference to playing with Wade or LeBron. I don't think Yao Ming or Kevin Martin (who I think could excel as a 3rd scorer) is enough to make him feel like he's not the go to guy.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/13095/bosh-im-the-kind-of-player-you-can-build-around

I don't think Bosh has any reason to blow smoke about his preference to play in Dallas. I'm not sure if it extends to Houston, but I know he's flat out said he doesn't want to be in Dallas. I'm assuming he grew up in some rough neighborhoods and doesn't want to run into any old "friends."

 

So Bosh will likely have a list of teams he would be willing to go to in a sign and trade, if he doesn't re-up with Toronto. That makes perfect sense. What will matter to the Rockets is if they are included on that list. If we are, I like our chances in a contest to persuade Toronto to deal with the Rocks instead of another team. If we aren't, then Morey looks at alternatives and decides if any of them make sense.

 

I'm glad you brought up LA. They have a great piece in Drew Bynum but TOR will look for young cheap talent. Although Bynum is young, he is expensive with his extention kicking in from his contract.

 

Can D. Morey speak with Bosh during the offseason before July 1? Is there any rules that can get him into trouble for talking with him about possible move to Houston?

 

Do you think Amare would be a ideal fit with Houston? Would you agree the PF position is something that Houston is looking to upgrade? I know fans are looking at the SF position but I think they want to keep Ariza at that position as he would be Battier's replacement.

 

Stevierebel posted that Amare didn't want to re-sign with Houston if they traded for him. He even went as far to post Amare "hated" the Rockets.

 

No, I don't think he can. This is from a quick search:


“July 1 is the first date that we can begin to negotiate with free-agents. After that, it’s just like recruiting in college. On July 1 we bring free agents in, you can court them, talk to them about joining your team. It’s no different than a young high school player coming out and you have to show them what your program is all about.

“You can begin contract negotiations on July 1 with potential free agents, but you cannot sign players until July 11.”

http://www.nba.com/magic/news/2007_OffSeason_Primer-229130-800.html

 

So do you think it's good business if D. Morey spoke with him July first and tell him, "Hey, we want you in Houston. See if you can work a SnT on your part with TOR."?

 

Who knows what Morey will do? We're only speculating about possibilities. He's been early before when trying to sign someone, but this is a different situation.