[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston's Future: Dollars and Sense

Good info...2 things that need clarification:

1) And this is something I was already wondering about: You are saying that Morey is indirectly warning teams that they are wasting their time going after Scola and Lowry, but then you are saying that it's to his advantage and he wants a team to offer them contracts that he can match to get them at a reduced price. What is the point of Morey's press conference posturing in the first place?

2) To me, your info, coupled with common sense, combine to tell me that we are more or less committed to an offseason trade, and, like you mentioned, all signs seem to point to Bosh or Amare being their top priority (he just showed his hand that he viewed both Landry and Scola as expendable and upgradable, and, in my opinion, gave us idiot fans a wink of the eye mentioning that we are still in the hunt for this summer's free agent crop). I don't think getting Luis to agree to a contract in early July (with the knowledge that he is being shipped out) would be as large of a problem as getting the Raptors to unload Bosh that early in the offseason. Would there be any incentive whatsoever for them to do so? Either way, either by the start of next season or the end of next season's trading deadline, I'd say it's a very safe bet that a reasonably significant trade is completed.

 

One point I was confused about that hopefully Bima can clear up:

Why can't the Rockets include BOTH Jeffries and Battier? That would put the Rockets at around ~14M, putting them over the minimum needed to send back to Toronto. From there, the Rockets could add their 2011 pick (w/ option), 2012 NY pick, and perhaps the rights to Sergio Llull.

 

Because TOR will be looking for assets as well. Paying both of those guys for year doesn't make TOR better. I do get where you're coming from though.

 

That's fine, but he continued the paragraph by suggesting we throw in David Andersen and Chuck Hayes. That just seems to further complicate things, when Jeffries/Battier would work as is. Battier IS an asset, along with the two 1st round picks and rights to Llull that I proposed. Jeffries is an expiring contract and shouldn't have negative value -- and as we saw last night, he can be serviceable.

If Chris Bosh makes it clear to Toronto that he's not re-signing (as Bima said), Toronto isn't really in a position to be a tough negotiator. Battier/Jeffries (both expiring) plus 2 1st round picks and the rights to Llull should be plenty.

 

Next season will pretty much be an all or nothing situation for us. With a healthy Yao and a situated Martin we may be able to make a nice run. If the whole thing blows up in our face the more intersting thing is what'll happen in 2012 we Yao and Jefferies expire and we really want to decide if we're going to roll the dice with Yao again.

 

The other thing we have to consider is Dallas also has assets that can net themselves Bosh as well. Dallas plans to make a big run at Bosh with Dampier's fully non guarantee contract which is basically an expiring contract along with Beaubois, cash, and a pick or two. They plan on making a splash this offseason as well.

I think the key for Houston are those two draft picks from NY. Teams will see the value of those contracts once they see NY can't land a big time free agent. Even if they land two max guys, they don't have the money to sign other players that can turn that team around. NY is probably two maybe three years away from contending again.

 

I agree with what you're saying but I think TOR will be looking at getting Brooks in that deal as well. I think those two first rounders will convince a lot of teams that are looking to build. Maybe Houston sends that first round pick for Anthony Randolph. Either way, I think we all can agree Houston is looking for a PF and a back up center.

 

Great article all the way.

I knew a lot of the specifics about the cap being lower next season due to revenue decrease, but I hadn't realized just how much the Tmac trade will effect our cap decisions in the short term.

As much as I love Chuck Hayes, I think a lot of us saw last night what Jared Jeffries can bring to this team and sadly as good as Chuck can be, his lack of size has hurt us too many times. Jeffries who is comparable to Chuck in terms of what he can do offensively (i.e. severely limited) offers the size that the Rockets so desperately need.

He's overpaid for what he brings to the table, but no doubt he can be an important "cog" in a high performance basketball team (every team competing for a championship team has those "glue" guys who know their role). Jeffries is not the throw in piece of trash that many people thought he was. His bloated contract is what makes him an obvious throw-in in the deal, but he does hold some very evident value, especially on the vertically challenged Rockets front-line.

If it comes down to a numbers game, and assuming no sign-and-trade magic happens from Morey, I'm thinking Daryl will do everything possible to resign Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola first and foremost, Chuck will probably be offered a very unflattering offer, and it is understandable in his position that he'd be in his own best interests to seek a better paying contract elsewhere.

If he accepted a veteran minimum deal to stay here and then was thrown into a deal around the deadline that wouldn't gain him anything. This is a tough business, and Morey has already proved he's willing to part with pretty much anyone.

 

No mention of coach's salary. Does Rick Adelman's contract have any factor into any of this cap stuff or is it coming straight out of Les' wallet?

 

Chris Bosh is not going to Dallas. He has said multiple times when asked about it that Dallas is "too close to home" for him, and that it isn't always a good thing to come back home. He doesn't want to play in Dallas.

Furthermore, he wants to be the man on the team. Dallas can't offer that with Dirk being their franchise. Bosh would immediately become the #1 option on the Rockets, something Dallas can't offer.

The only question is if Houston is far enough from "home" for Chris Bosh to consider.

 

Very interesting read. This is kind of off topic but does anyone know how much Les Alexander is worth?

 

I think another interesting thing to look at is if Yao can stay healthy, would he be willing to take a paycut for the Rockets to sign another player or will he want the max?

Something tells me Houston will try and work out a contract extension over the Summer based on Yao's recovery.

 

Bima needs to post in this thread so I can rep him for the aticle.

I'd guess: The Rockets want to minimize the number of teams making bids. The fewer the competitors, the lower the price is likely to be. If no one makes an offer, Scola/Lowry are left in a negotiation with a weak BATNA (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement), so they will have to capitulate to the Rockets' offer. If someone does happen to offer, it will likely be after other, more available players are taken and the amount of money available is down significantly and the big spenders are out of the bidding. And then the bid will be more constrained by the CBA than the Rockets' own. So minimizing other bids is what Morey wants, and if he gets it to zero, great.

I agree with that. It feels like Morey set the table to be active in trading. Maybe sign-and-trade for someone like Bosh, but maybe for someone under contract for a team that needs to rebuild.

EDIT: One thing I've always wondered is why do first round picks usually sign for the max allowable? I can see the lottery guys have some bargaining power if they can hold a grudge for 5 years. But, does a late first-rounder really have any leverage to get that extra 20%?

 

Well you just never know man... Bosh might change his mind. Either way, Dallas will be players one way or another. I also thought he said he would love to in Texas a long time ago? Maybe I was wrong....

I do believe he wants to be number one on a team. He said it earlier this year that he doesn't understand why people don't believe he can lead a team or carry a team on his back. Bosh would be our number one option for Houston.

I think the bigger question is does Bosh want to play in Houston and does he want to stay in TOR? I think Bosh wants to win a championship and I don't think TOR will be close to contending for a ring. I think they owe too much money in Hedo, Calderon, and Bargini.

 

I highly doubt that. I'm sure they would much rather see how he performs in games before discussing an extension. Offseason health means nothing.

 

I think Morey's main objective in that presser was to let people know Houston plans on being active this offseason. Some in the media still think Houston lost more than they gave up. I think a lot of it has to do that Houston isn't a playoff team as we speak. Maybe that's why you don't see as much press about our trade. Morey has done a great job getting Houston ready to make a move.

 

Great read, but a bit glommy on the negetive side. Misisng some protential points.

Yes, since the trade for KM happened we pretty much gave up the tmac cap relief. That's a no-brainer, goes without saying. hence why we traded tmac instead of letting him expired. This also tells you Morey has his mind made up about some FA not so willing to part and protentially lose out on 30 plus millions salary. Which is why we went for this route.

I personally think Morey is cooking up something sweet in FA. Why? The story mentioned about a protential 3rd team with cap rooms. That's not hard to find. you have to understand the NBA environment besides just the cap room, salary, and stuff on the paper.

Next year there may be a protenial lockout, which means Owner would be paying less then what they owed. a case where LES would be paying less for more. (that's why Les is more willing to open his pocket)

Traditionally, teams like the Raptors would have to either sign their own picks who turns into superstars (tmac, vince, bosh...etc), or else facing to pay higher then market value to sign players. (cuz no one wants to go there)` Therefore, picks to them are worth a lot more than everything. Beside seriously do you thing Raptor can afford to lose Bosh for nothing and use his expiring contract to sign anyone in FA? haha.

To the Raptors, as soon as there is signal from Bosh that he doesn't want to play for them. (which the writing is on the wall, also with Bosh's name in the trade rumors, you know he's gone) Raptors will try to find a suitor for sign & trade.

The trick is here. If you were the raptors, who would you be willing to trade?
1. another superstar, but where? I don't see that an option at all.
2. trading Bosh for scraps, yeah alot of them would signup, as the raptors probably saw it happened before the trade deadline.

3. This is where Rockets would step in. (go ahead and try to find another team with better options then us).

Rockets can protentially offer scola, battier, jeffies..plus 2 NYC picks for Bosh. If needed 3rd team would be more than happy to assist. I think we can do a straight up trade with some cash.

If you are the Raptors who else can give this kind of package? Scola - raptor may not loss much comparing to bosh. Battier and jeffies just to sweeten up the deal. The stars in here are the two draft picks. Raptors traditionally get their stars thru picks, and those two picks are guarantee to be high.

Now, lets ask Bosh. would you rather be playing for knicks or Rockets? which team has the better chance to win? which team would give you exposure to world market? if you think NY is big, think again with China.

Now, the notion of playing alongside Wade or Lebron is very attractive. However do you think their own team wouldn't try everything to keep them? Chances of lebron leaving is very slim, now wade may not stay put. Then again you are competing with Chi, or rockets as we could throw in KM for wade. lol.

our chance of landing Bosh is great

 

That's my feeling about this summer, as well. Morey has set us up to be players, if we want to be.

 

I don't know man. Les and Morey both seem determine to resign Yao. I think both parties would want to get the ground work started before the new CBA agreement hits. But more than likely Houston would want to see how his health is before. It's a lot of "IF's".

 

Bosh said Texas was "too close to home". He's also mentioned having friends and family in Houston. Houston out for the count?