[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update

merchant: Mr EZ, how do you want to pay?

leebigez: Straight cash homie :grin:

 

Solid article. However, I think you, and most fans it seems, are overreacting about the Brad Miller signing.

 

Morey has his MBA. He understands how to manage "assets," and that is what is behind these moves, IMHO. Obviously, he wanted Bosh, but didn't get him. Due to the big 3 going to one team, there were plenty of teams ready to overpay our "assets," and we couldn't lose those assets.

Morey's whole approach is about collecting assets, developing them, and making shrewd opportunistic deals to increase the quality of the team, until we become contenders.

When he couldn't get a star upgrade, he chose to conserve his assets, add more, and give himself the ability to trade for more at the deadline, once people's hopes are dashed, or they realize they aren't going to keep certain players. Even though he paid "market value" for these 3 players, that's not necessarily a bad thing. If all your players are on incredible deals, you can't use them for matching salaries. We are pretty much rid of bloated contracts, except Jeffries. He's being kept on the team primarily for trade filler for a bigger contract. We have plenty of talent and picks we can trade, but we were starting to run out of bigger salaries for trade, without losing key players, and we actually needed these to be bigger.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see any or all 3 of these players traded at the February trade deadline in a "star player upgrade trade."

 

Very nice reading. Thanks a ton.

 

Slightly off topic:

Do we know how much additional revenue an extra playoff round is ?

 

How am I overreacting? I'm not trying to be defensive. I just don't understand the comment. I thought my "reaction" was fairly muted. Thanks for the praise (and criticism), though.

I was with you until you got to this point. With the expiring salaries of Battier and Jeffries, along with the somewhat-reasonable salary of Trevor Ariza, I honestly don't think the Rockets were hurting on salaries necessary to match in any realistically conceivable trade. In the case of both Scola and Lowry, they are both Base Year Compensation players next year, so their larger salaries will actually make trades MORE difficult, not less.

Also, Lowry cannot be traded for one full year without his consent, and he cannot be traded to the Cavs for one full year, period.

 

The 2011 plan is out the window. Morey is planning on taking on major salary this year. Be patient.

 

enjoyed reading BimaThug!!!

 

so cutting Harris and Johnson could save Les $3.5M? (salary+LT), bye bye to both

 

LOL ... well, that's why we have you here as an expert. I didn't think about the Base Year Compensation issues ... great point ... and now that you bring that out, it totally changes how I'm looking at it.

I guess he was retaining assets he planned on keeping ...

 

The luxury tax issue for the 2011-12 season may be a moot issue if the owners push through the hard cap like they want in the new labor agreement. That is, there would be no tax because the hard cap cannot be exceeded, like in the NFL. I would assume there would be some gradual implementation for the hard cap, to allow teams like Dallas, etc., to take a couple of years to get below the cap.

As such, maybe the Rockets are gambling that there will be no luxury tax next year, and that they need to get as many contracts as possible to take advantage of the grandfather provision, and to have future trade assets?

 

Great read Bima, thanks for keeping us in the know!

 

Exactly.

DD

 

I don't think there will be a FA frenzy for 2011,therefore a McGrady like move for Yao's expiring contract plus Battier/Jeffries is going to be hard, especially with the impending lockout.

Nevertheless,it's still possible that a Martin like move might happen this year probably along with a bad contract around the february deadline. DM will weigh the pros and cons before making a decision,that will hopefully help us out.

Re-signing Yao with his injury history is going to be very risky.

 

You want to cut Johnson to save money?

 

Good read Bima.

I'm completely with you about the Rockets paying the luxury tax. I thought they had an outside chance of getting back under it by the trade deadline prior to they Brad Miller signing, but once the signed Miller all and any chance of getting under the L/T threshold went out the window. All they can hope to do now is mitigate their losses with some savvy trade deadline moves but there is no way they avoid paying the LT in my opinion.

 

If the Rockets do not make some two for one trades then they will absolutely cut either Harris or Johnson or both during training camp IMO.

First they have seventeen players under contract and can only have 15. Harris and Johnson are the only players with non-guaranteed contracts so it does not take much imagination to figure out who does not get a chair when the music stops.

Second, Daryl Morey has already said that the Rockets need a third point guard (which they really do need) so once again if the Rockets have to cut a player to make room for a point guard then guess who the likely candidates are?

Third is that their contracts are worth a combined 1.7 million this season. Since the Rockets are over the LT Threshold that 1.7 million would actually cost them 3.4 million. I think they are both as good as gone baring some sort of trade.

 

I was talking about relative value, as in what DM should have been willing to pay them. Remember DM was basically assigns values to players, and walks away when the price gets too high. Technically 5M for Gortat was steep but not overpaying him, but DM walked away on that deal as well.

It still doesn't take away the fact that Scolandry, Lowry, and Deke were overperforming their contracts, which is basically what I was pointing out. All of their contracts combined would be under 10M, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find production like that for $$$ anywhere else.

The "gimpy knee" was due to the PR blitz by Morey and co, they insisted Landry take a thorough medical examination then spread rumors questioning his knee when Landry refused. Instead of settling on deal like what happened with Scola, DM let Landry languish in limbo for close to two months. Its not like he offered them a decent 3M contract from the start, all reports say DM offered a two year MINIMUM contract as a starting point to negotiations. As in, Landry and his agent couldn't believe they were being offered that low after he tore up his rookie year. The great financial maneuvering, but you got to admit its also machiavellian and definitely nickel-and-diming. Or do your employers spread rumors about your work ethic and offer you 0.01% increases when its time for job evaluation?

The Tmac trade was an overpaid contract in and off itself. D. Andersen and Battier are normal expiring contracts, and not partially guaranteed contracts. Expiring contracts won't save you money, just gets you out of future obligations. Partially guaranteed contracts do. If you can't see the value of 3M getting slashed off your books right then and there, well then you need to think about this more.

DM already said he drafts rookies with a 3 year window. Is it so far-fetched he signs players with that window in mind as well?

You're contradicting yourself here. I don't understand the difference between "using these contracts to acquire a star" with "signing these players to trade 2-3 players for a star". LOL they mean the same thing, as the contracts are basically the players themselves.

 

As of now, I think the long term plan is to continue the build around Yao...or ateast a Yao like player. I think we are close, but we would need a ton of luck to steal a title.

Assemble assets, wait for an opportunity, and then pounce once someone signifigant becomes available. I think Iggy rounds out our roster nicely, even if it costs Ariza, Hill and a pick. You won't be a slam dunk NBA Champion, but adding Iggy makes you a top 3 team in the league and a legitimate title contender. Similarly Granger, if he becomes available, but I think that is less likely and more expensive (asset wise).

I am not sold on Carmello or Paul, not because I dont think they are good players but because I think you will have a depleted roster once you outbid everyone. You may have a superstar but still not a contender. Unless one of them says, send me to Houston, I don' think it pans out for us.

If the opportunity does not arise to land a star, then I think you have to dump your assets and get someone in the draft who can replace Yao. IE a tall post up presence who draws in double teams and can defend. If you draft that guy this next draft and give him a solid three years to develop, you could still catch Martin, Lowry, Brooks, Budinger, Ariza, Patterson, etc in thier primes and make a run.

Alternatively, you could throw the bank at guys like B.Lopez or M.Gasol who could both play the Yao role, but just a little less effectively. Would that crazy Ruskie take Patterson, Budinger and both Knick picks for Lopez? I bet he would consider it! Heck, I wouldnt even mind giving a shot to Chris Kayman. He is goofy as hell, but dammit, I just want to see our team at full strength one freaking time! He would probably be the cheapest of the buch too. Maybe the Bucks flame out and Bogut comes available...thats another guy who fits the bill.

Otherwise, the best we can hope for is Yao coming back strong and still having a productive 4-5 years left, but I just can't see that happening to be honest.

Oh well, go Rockets.

 

Are you serious about Lopez? Scola made him his b!tch when we played them. I'm not impressed, certainly not impressed enough to move "Patterson, Budinger and both Knick picks" for Lopez. No way, with all due respect.