[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update

New Jersey? The Knicks....lots of teams still have cap space.

DD

 

I don't expect the Rockets to extend Brooks this season. I believe there will be a lockout on July 1, 2011 with a new CBA being negotiated. No FA moves will happen until after that point. And once the new CBA is in place, teams will have a better idea of what they can/can't do with regards to signing FAs for the long term.

Chances are, in the new CBA contracts will be smaller, either in years or salary or both. Cap numbers and LT lines could fluxuate as well.

 

So you think the Rockets will let AB become a restricted Free Agent like they did with Lowry and Scola?

DD

 

I'm just going to tell you now, if brooks makes it through the season on the rockets, he will be a king next year. The rockets will either have to do a sign and trade and get a te or just lose him straight up. The kings have so many rookie contracts and no one getting a deal any earlier than tyreke, they can afford to pay brooks 10m per.

Bima, posters always say I'm a pessimist, but i think the rockets will avoid the lux tax especially if they're avg. Even with all the additions and players back, i don't see them blazing out and taking command of anything. At the trade deadline, they will be pretty much 5 or 6 games over .500. It will be harder for the adjustment of yao than many think. The rockets will have to break up some of those players and add them with players to dump the contracts. I mean, whats the purpose of hayes and shane when you have jeffries? They could dump shane along with taylor to a team because someone sees taylor as a exciting piece of the puzzle plus it would't kill their cap for next season. Chicago,nj,minny are just a few teams who can absorb shane,andersen,and taylor in 1 gulp and a 2nd rd pick. It can be done and I'm sure once we get a closer look, it probably will be done.

I also see mention about a lockout coming. If I'm not mistaken, stern could extend this current deal another year while they continue to wok on the new on. I can't remember the date, but he has to exercise it by that date. Considering what happened last time and the league is just now making it back, I think he will do that.

 

Yes, I do. Because under the new CBA, I think the "terms" will be more favorable to the owners. I think under the new CBA Brooks' deal will be less (years/total salary) than if we offered him an extension now. I also believe that Brooks' value to "this team" is much higher than his value to other teams. I like Brooks' talent, but he is not Rose,Rando,Williams,Paul etc. I don't think someone is going to offer him a Donte Ellis contract. Certainly not under the new CBA.

 

I can see your point, but I am not convinced that the NBA will actually get that good of a deal, the last time they locked the players out, and got a little better but not a total overhaul.

And the owners always leave themselves an out, remember the Findley rule? Where teams could buy out a player and not have it count against their cap?

Either way, it will be interesting to see different teams strategies...so many teams paying a LOT of money now...and if they were really worried about the new CBA, would they be paying this much?

I don't know....so many mixed messages......I would try to sign Brooks to a nice deal now as opposed to hoping against someone making him a massive offer...

Morey kind of got burned this year.....IMO.

DD

 

I am not sure we could have gotten Lowry or Scola cheaper...they may have been asking for more before they became FA's.

One thing is clear - Morey does not plan on improving this team significantly via free agency for the next few years. Anything done now will be via trade.

 

Thanks for the kind words about the article, everyone. Just doing my part.

I don't think the Rockets will offer Brooks an extension. Not only will the new CBA potentially limit his earning potential, but I also believe that Aaron Brooks's value may never be quite as high as it is RIGHT NOW.

He is coming off a year where he averaged nearly 20 ppg while playing on a "diluted" team without its star player. Do I think Brooks is a good player? Hell, yeah. But do I think he would have put up those numbers on a fully healthy Rockets team? No. Combine this with the fact that he is still young and can still get better, and his agent would have a field day in negotiations.

However, give Brooks a year on a much better Rockets squad, and his numbers (not necessarily his effectiveness as a player) will certainly go down. It is easier to negotiate a new deal with a 26-year-old coming off a, say, 15 ppg, 4 apg season than it is to negotiate with a 25-year-old coming off a 20 ppg, 5 apg season.

leebigez, I respect you and all, but you are out of your damn mind if you think the Rockets will completely avoid paying the tax next season. Reduce the bill? Maybe (if they can't make a major move for a star player, in which case they would likely be paying MORE tax). But COMPLETELY avoiding? No way in Hades, my friend.

I am so confident in this fact--yes, I said FACT--that I am willing to make a sig bet with you.

CHALLENGE ISSUED!!!

 

I hear ya Bima, but what if Brooks playing with better players ends up around 18ppg and 8 assists?

That is going to be one expensive guy.

DD

 

More expensive in THIS CBA, then the next one in my opinion.
I think Bima and I are saying the same thing.

 

I think the Rockets are willing to take that chance.

 

Yeah, but if he is that good, I think they would like to keep him (unless we can upgrade even further).

 

I like this and I'm sure you're a person of their word just like my man Durvasa. We can do it because I'm going by history and you're going by p.r. :grin: . The owner has neva,eva,eva paid a penny on the lux tax and all of a sudden he's going to pay basically 22m for a 4-5 seeded team? Ok, we will see and it won't be anything embarrassing in your sig :grin:

 

Ah, yes, I see your point.

I was just assuming that signing Brooks now might be better for him and he might be motivated to take a little less $$$ now for longevity etc.

But, I get what you guys are saying and it makes a lot of sense.

DD

 

This is where i differ with you and bima and we had this discussion before regarding lowry. Bima won't admit it now, but i said he would get at least 4m and he said he didn't think he would get that much. I understand that gm's are afraid to set the market, but sometimes its good to set it before a team like the raiders of football come in and messes things up. I don't have any evidence, just theory, but I believe both lowry and scola would have made less if the rockets had been aggressive and gotten negotiated with them before blake,gooden and those guys signed or agreed to deals. I thought the market for scola and i even stated it was something like a 4 yr 32m deal starting at 7.5m and using 8% escalators. I thought lowry with his age would be 4m with those same escalators. Those are numbers i thought a team would offer those guys. Because the extra money and the teams with cap room along with scola getting the international competition, the rockets were forced to pay more than what they probably thought at first. No way the cavs are entertaining the signing of lowry with lebron yet to make a decision. They didn't come after lowry till after the lebron decision. Sometimes its better to be like the eagles and give the guy what you think his value is vs not even talking with the guy which is what the rockets have been doing.

 

Morey has basically put a lot of his eggs in this year's basket. His thinking is pretty clear. He has put together enough assets to bring in another star AND have enough depth left over to compete.

IMO the key move was picking up Hayes' contract. If we didn't have that, we'd be close to dumping enough salary come deadline to squeeze under, or get close enough to call it even. But Morey obviously wanted to go all-in and keep him.

I will say this to Morey doubters. If Yao's healthy and we're in the middle of the pack in the playoffs seeding, and Morey doesn't bring in a 3rd star(I do believe Yao and Martin are star level players), then Morey has failed this season. He now has all the ammunition he needs to get us that key player for a championship run. He HAS to close the deal.

 

When 3 superstars joined one team in offseason, and while so many teams have cap to spend, you know someone will get overpay. Personally I think we get good deal on Scola, and pay too much to Lowry and Miller.

 

Great article Bima...

DM said in the past, that the Rockets are going to match KL and LS. IIRC, he also mentioned, Les gave him the OK to go over the salary cap, and willing to pay the lux tax.

So far, he's correct about matching KL and LS. So, I won't be surprised when we head into lux tax land.

Some posters just don't take what DM says seriously. He has said this all along.

 

Thanks, Bima.

I think you have a couple of things working in the Rockets' favor this year for dumping Jeffries at the deadline.

1. Unlike the Jazz, the Rockets would simply be looking to save money, not get under the tax. IOW, they're not as desperate.

2. IIRC, OKC was the only team left under the cap with enough room to absorb all of Harpring's salary. It appears, although I admit it's still early, that there will be several teams with that ability. That competition will drive down the price a bit.

 

I think your point #1 works AGAINST your counter-argument. The ROCKETS won't be as desperate. Therefore, when the under-the-cap team inevitably demands a first rounder (or more) plus cash in order to take Jeffries, the Rockets may just choose to say "no", with Les instead biting the bullet and eating the salary.

On point #2, you may be right about the sheer number of under-the-cap teams next year. But I don't think very many of them will be under the cap by $6.9M or more, which is how much room it would take to fit Jeffries without the Rockets taking back salary.

If a major move for a star player--at least one that involves Jeffries--isn't there for the Rockets, I think the team would definitely EXPLORE ways to dump Jared's salary to avoid as hefty a tax bill if they kept him. But just be prepared to pay a VERY high price for dumping him. Dumping Steve Francis's $2.6M salary cost the Rockets cash and a high second rounder. To dump Jeffries's $6.9M salary will cost a stiff price. And it's going to be much more difficult to find a taker.

There's a REASON the Rockets got Jordan Hill and two potential lottery picks for taking Jared Jeffries off their hands. That's a hard contract to move.