[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update

The problem this off season is the market. There are all these teams that cleared cap space for LeBron and company and didn't get him. Well guess what, those teams have money to spend so all the prices went up.

I'm still hoping for a trade but I just don't see it atm.

 

The Scola/Lowry/Miller deals of this summer seems to be true value~slightly over paid even to the most avid Morey supporters. On first glance, they seem like bad deals. Based on Bimathug's salary update, however, I think that it is a win/win situation for all. For example, Miller's contract is 5 mil/year for 3 years with the last being a $1 mil guarantee. Almost everyone will agree that if Miller was had at 3-3.5 mil/year then it would be a great deal. Look at it this way. Year 1: We are paying 1.5 million "extra". Year 2: Eminent lockout + becomes an expiring contract asset. Year 3: Instant 4mil salary relief to financially strapped teams. Thus in year 3, I'm thinking a 5 mil to 1mil partial guarantee is >>> 3mil to 1mil because the owner can save 2x as much money immediately. That is why I think Morey is genius. He rewards the players like Scola & Lowry with these contracts (boost morale and loyalty) meanwhile making sure that he gets Miller over his other suiters, yet at the same time he thinks of the future in terms of maximizing options&flexibility.

You know how some teams ALWAYS seem to be in "rebuilding" mode? They are usually stuck in mediocrity. The fact of the NBA and its current salary regulations is that a team cannot be true contenders without willing to be significantly over the cap. What does this have to do with the ROX? I think that our "collecting assets" mode is pretty much done. This means that at some point, we needed to pay near value or overpay for upgrades on our roster. Based on Les' spending spree this summer they are saying that time is now.

 

I think DD pointed out on another thread that with the insurance money the Rockets got last year, there is more willingness to to spend this year. But if the results aren't there, I don't think the owner will be happy.

 

I tend to think Mr. Alexander is not going to make a habit of going over the lux tax, that this is just an exception. So why do it this year? It makes sense to keep 2 fan favs in Scola and Lowry, surely. And Miller will do well in keeping Yao's minutes down and potentially healthy. And given the expirings of Jeffries, Battier, and Andersen, it's easy to see us back under the tax next year.

Most importantly though, Mr. Alexander, did not pay much in salary last year since half of the roster was injured and insurance payments covered the expenses. I'm thinking he socked the money away in order to be able to use the money this year. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he feels like the fans did him right by supportting the team in a down year, so he's returning the favor by doing what he can to make the team competitive this year.

 

i'm going to disagree slightly.

the rockets spent alot this offseason because they HAD to. this is the year when the entirety of the current "plan" gets evaluated. by this I mean that this is the last year Yao is on his contract, and it is paramount to find out if a Yao-centric team can contend. Based on the answer to Yao's health questions and the competitiveness of the team, the rockets have to decide what Yao's next contract should look like, and whether to keep building aroudn him or to reduce him to role player status and adopt a new primary team structure. I think that it is with getting answers to these questions in mind that the rockets are going "all-in" this year. to me, knowing these things is worth it for Les and the rockets regardless if the rockets are bounced in the first round or get to the wcf.

 

Depressing read.

 

beat me to it.

 

I'm ok with going over the lux tax for players like lowry, scola, and miller. they are better assets than what we could have landed with the LLE or the vet minimum. If a deal for Granger comes up, and they want scola and lowry, it is equivalent to us letting scola and lowry walk, and us signing Granger outright.

Signing Miller was also a must. I think our young guys have shown that they cannot hold down the center position. If Yao goes down again, we are probably missing the playoffs again this year if we dont have Miller. Miller helps spread the floor, whereas Hayes helps clog it while we are on offense. Look for Ariza, Brooks, and Lowry to be able to penetrate to the rim this season- while also getting wide open looks for Yao, Patterson, Scola, and Martin.

This season is going to be fun.

 

I wonder if the Rockets will try to extend Brooks this year, to avoid the inevitable bidding war if they let him become restricted?

DD

 

i could see that. but i think it will all depend on who becomes available via trade during the next year.

i love brooks! and i hope he stays a rocket... but let's be honest, if i were a houston rocket i would not count on staying here with morey as my GM. everyone but yao is expendable.

 

Which is a shame honestly, because in a real situation like the Rox are in, everyone should be expendable if it makes the team better.

DD

 

Would AB accept it though or wait it out until he becomes a RFA?

Edit: Thanks for another great article Bima.

 

I would think that AB would be more inclined to do a deal now before the new CBA is out and the cap goes down.

That to me would be his motivation, not sure about the Rox though.

DD

 

and you know this because????

 

If the whole under salary cap idea was based on not resigning Yao it was never going to happen anyway. Besides Morey clearly stated gutting the team for a chance to compete for a free agent was never their plan.

A smart plan when you look at all the teams that came up short in the Hunt for Lebron. New York will take a minimum of 5 years to recover.

In hindsight Morey's strategy of acquiring assets rather than gutting the team so you have pieces to offer in a sign and trade is the smarter way t go. And it would have worked if only one of the big free agents wanted to come to us.

 

Free agent signings by teams are made public.

 

Bima Thug, You are to be congratulated for your easy to read and precise article. Easy to follow and understand. Most appreciated!! Joe y

 

Great article once again, Bima. Thanks.

 

Great post NIKEstrad. Wanted to make sure to quote your last bit as I think it's really important. It's very easy for all of us to get caught up, "at the moment" with these moves, but Morey isn't playing 'checkers', he is playing 'chess'. He is multiple moves down the road. Like NIKEstrad said, he is on a 3-5 year time horizon. Morey is making moves to help the team and to give him flexibility for future moves. Back in the day, all of us saw those types of contracts as burdensome and unmovable. But Morey is confident he can move them if needed. He has given himself some "outs" here.

 

DD， assuming the Salary CAP goes down in any significant potion next year (>5%), I doubt there are many team that COULD bid for AB at all next year. a quick glance at garanteed salaries next summer give us only Cavs and Kings as the only two teams could be significantly under the cap at the moment.

IMO, Next summer WILL be a very bad summer for free agents, unless the player's union somehow manage to keep the new CBA essentially unchanged.