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[ClutchFans] An NBA Nightmare: The James Harden-Dwight Howard Pick-and-Roll

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by GBRocket, Jul 18, 2013.

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WinkFan Contributing Member

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sleepyazn said: ↑

Lin is a better at facilitating the pick and roll then Harden, in terms of actually getting the ball into the big man's hands. Harden is naturally a much more refined and better finisher as he should be since he's like a mini tank rolling to the basket(that eurosteps!). But stats don't lie, Lin lead the team in assists while having the ball less then Harden. That should in itself point out that Lin is a better pick and roll facilitator then Harden. Also both Harden and Lin were held back by the great brick hands of Asik. Seriously how many easy dunks and lay ups were blown by him? Both Lin and Harden should have been in the 7-9 assists per game range easy if they actually have a front court that can finish.
Click to expand...

Total assists per game does not indicate which player is a superior passer in the pick and roll. First off, pick and roll is only part of the game. Second, simply passing more often does not mean you are doing a better job running the pick and roll.

#221 WinkFan, Jul 21, 2013

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sleepyazn said: ↑

Also both Harden and Lin were held back by the great brick hands of Asik. Seriously how many easy dunks and lay ups were blown by him? Both Lin and Harden should have been in the 7-9 assists per game range easy if they actually have a front court that can finish.
Click to expand...

boy this is so much true...were asik able to finish those we would be easy top 3 seed...those missed easy opportunites were great momentum killers...

#222 amazingskills, Jul 21, 2013
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In the drawing the author has Terrence Jones(#6) in the corner. He will be shooting more outside jumpers and 3's this season for sure.

#223 brownxmas, Jul 21, 2013
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Charles Barkley said

“Well, I think he made the best basketball decision. The two frontrunners, in terms of basketball, were the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors. He’d be a nice addition to either. With James Harden down there they got a terrific head coach in Kevin McHale, who I think gone really help Dwight’s game, because Dwight has got a long way to go offensively.”

http://www.examiner.com/article/cha...-stink-and-defends-dwight-howard-for-decision

#224 Maknusia, Jul 21, 2013
GBRocket Contributing Member

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GBRocket said: ↑

http://rockets.clutchfans.net/4559/james-harden-dwight-howard-pick-and-roll
Click to expand...

Hi everyone, thanks so much for all the great responses to the article both on the thread and offline. Clutchfans is such an awesome community.

I just wanted to add some perspective to a few of the questions raised:

Q: What were Jeremy Lin's stats as a P&R ball handler compared to James Harden?

Short answer: As a P&R ball handler, Jeremy Lin scored 0.85 PPP compared to Harden's 1 PPP. As mentioned by another poster, Lin ranked #43 in the NBA in this stat compared to Harden's #5 ranking.

Important qualifier: The main metric that I looked at was Points Per Possession (PPP) as a P&R ball handler. This counts ONLY the points generated by the ball handler when they decide the outcome of the play themselves (i.e., by shooting or turning the ball over). It does NOT account for any points the ball handler creates for the roll man (or any other player for that matter) off the pass.

Q: What drives Harden's 1 PPP versus Lin's 0.85 PPP?

James has a higher 3-point shooting percentage off the P&R (39.4% vs 30.4%), more 3-pt shots taken and made (47/119 vs 7/23), is fouled more (12.5% of the time vs 8.8%), and generates more and 1's (24 vs 7). All of these combined to make Harden more effective at generating offense for himself off the P&R.

Q: If what you say in your article is true, why did Daryl Morey say that Lin was the 5th-best P&R player in the league? This seems contradictory

Daryl made this comment in his end of season debrief with SR610 [you can re-listen to it here], starting at the 3:15 mark.

His exact quote was, "He's the 5th best pick-and-roll player in the league on 9 pick-and-rolls a game."

I believe Daryl is referring to Lin's effectiveness when passing to the roll man in a pick-and-roll situation. This blog post on ESPN offers more perspective.

[From ESPN] However, when going exclusively to the roll man, Lin ranked in the 72nd percentile (fifth of 35 point guards with 100 plays). That compares favorably to both Howard’s current and preferred point guards.
Click to expand...

If this is the stat that Daryl was referring to, it is a little bit of a nuanced way of framing the issue as it excludes Lin's personal offensive output and his passes to the other 4 players on the court other than the roll man. Part of me feels that Daryl was somewhat economical with the data here, probably to show support to a player he felt had been unfairly criticized (or to drive up his trade value, all you conspiracy theorists).

That said it is very encouraging to know that with the offensively challenged Omer Asik as his P&R roll man, Lin was able to end as the 5th most productive assist man.

This means that Jeremy Lin is highly effective at generating offense for the P&R roll man which is encouraging news for his ability to set up Dwight off the play this season.

How effective are Lin and Harden as three point shooters?

Without weighing in too much on this, I direct you to the shot charts below courtesy of NBA stats, so you can draw your own conclusions.

Harden

Lin

#225 GBRocket, Jul 22, 2013
Last edited: Jul 22, 2013

4 people like this.
markusbrutus Member

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Thanks for the interesting Data GBRocket

#226 markusbrutus, Jul 22, 2013
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I made an effort to watch some of the linsanity games to see what his fanboys are ranting and raving about. I watched the Lakers, Dallas, New Orleans, Miami and Toronto game. One thing that stoodout to me. He attacked the double teams well. He wouldn't wait ffor the teams to react and he would attack them. What I saw last season was a guy playing reactive instead of taking the game on. Complete 360 to that period.

I must say he has a lot of talent but last season for me he looked lost and reactive compared to his linsanity period. When he wasn't thinking even his 3's were going down.

#227 Spiegel, Jul 22, 2013

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again, Lin can contribute very well by playing the PNR. if we do not use his talent on the PNR, we are wasting it and we should trade him where his talent will be properly utilized.

#228 s3ts, Jul 22, 2013
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Spiegel said: ↑

I made an effort to watch some of the linsanity games to see what his fanboys are ranting and raving about. I watched the Lakers, Dallas, New Orleans, Miami and Toronto game. One thing that stoodout to me. He attacked the double teams well. He wouldn't wait ffor the teams to react and he would attack them. What I saw last season was a guy playing reactive instead of taking the game on. Complete 360 to that period.

I must say he has a lot of talent but last season for me he looked lost and reactive compared to his linsanity period. When he wasn't thinking even his 3's were going down.
Click to expand...

I have always felt the same way that when Lin was most successful is when he has the ball and is initiating the action. Lin just doesn't look like a good fit with Harden on the floor a the same time. Harden is going to control the ball and that leaves Lin as pretty much a jump shooter or secondary shot creator. His abilities in this scenario just aren't maximized. And I think it effects him mentally. I think he gains a lot of confidence when he is initiating the action.

Lin would be better off as a "6th man" energizer type scorer playing WITH the basketball while Harden is resting on the bench. I think he could flourish in this role and could get back to, or close to, his play during his "Linsanity" run.

#229 Deuce, Jul 22, 2013
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s3ts said: ↑

again, Lin can contribute very well by playing the PNR. if we do not use his talent on the PNR, we are wasting it and we should trade him where his talent will be properly utilized.
Click to expand...

I agree. But the problem here is that Harden is better than Lin is on the p&r. He shoots better, finishes better, commands more double teams, and gets to the line more, so he'll most likely be running it more.

#230 jocar, Jul 22, 2013
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jocar said: ↑

I agree. But the problem here is that Harden is better than Lin is on the p&r. He shoots better, finishes better, commands more double teams, and gets to the line more, so he'll most likely be running it more.
Click to expand...

He doesn't

#231 rokit, Jul 22, 2013
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rokit said: ↑

He doesn't
Click to expand...

He does

James has a higher 3-point shooting percentage off the P&R (39.4% vs 30.4%)

#232 Karolik, Jul 22, 2013
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Wow that chart, Lin is really effecting on the shooting mid range right side. That can become a very important aspect when facing teams like Pacers or Grizzlies.

#233 RedEyesKirby, Jul 22, 2013

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Karolik said: ↑

He does

James has a higher 3-point shooting percentage off the P&R (39.4% vs 30.4%)
Click to expand...

But his FG% is lower. 45% James vs 47% JLin

#234 rokit, Jul 22, 2013
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jocar said: ↑

I agree. But the problem here is that Harden is better than Lin is on the p&r. He shoots better, finishes better, commands more double teams, and gets to the line more, so he'll most likely be running it more.
Click to expand...

The quick and dirty answer is, according to the author of the article, is:

GBRocket said: ↑

All of these combined to make Harden more effective at generating offense for himself off the P&R.
Click to expand...

and

GBRocket said: ↑

Jeremy Lin is highly effective at generating offense for the P&R roll man which is encouraging news for his ability to set up Dwight off the play this season.
Click to expand...

For a more nuanced answer, you can read his (GBRocket) follow up response to the original article.

I wonder how this will all translate during the regular season.

#235 cyntil8ing, Jul 22, 2013
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Seeing #12 written in this picture gave me chills for a second. I pictured Rafer Alston driving to the basket doing a tear drop lay up again.

#236 Drunk_Goat, Jul 22, 2013
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RedEyesKirby said: ↑

Wow that chart, Lin is really effecting on the shooting mid range right side. That can become a very important aspect when facing teams like Pacers or Grizzlies.
Click to expand...

but ranked 68th in the league for mid-range shots by Synergy.

At 1:35

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/KnHndbNPYi0?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

#237 hooroo, Jul 22, 2013
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s3ts said: ↑

again, Lin can contribute very well by playing the PNR. if we do not use his talent on the PNR, we are wasting it and we should trade him where his talent will be properly utilized.
Click to expand...

I'm curious, why in the world would the Rockets even consider doing that?

#238 WinkFan, Jul 22, 2013

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GBRocket said: ↑

Hi everyone, thanks so much for all the great responses to the article both on the thread and offline. Clutchfans is such an awesome community.

I just wanted to add some perspective to a few of the questions raised:

Q: What were Jeremy Lin's stats as a P&R ball handler compared to James Harden?

Short answer: As a P&R ball handler, Jeremy Lin scored 0.85 PPP compared to Harden's 1 PPP. As mentioned by another poster, Lin ranked #43 in the NBA in this stat compared to Harden's #5 ranking.

Important qualifier: The main metric that I looked at was Points Per Possession (PPP) as a P&R ball handler. This counts ONLY the points generated by the ball handler when they decide the outcome of the play themselves (i.e., by shooting or turning the ball over). It does NOT account for any points the ball handler creates for the roll man (or any other player for that matter) off the pass.

Q: What drives Harden's 1 PPP versus Lin's 0.85 PPP?

James has a higher 3-point shooting percentage off the P&R (39.4% vs 30.4%), more 3-pt shots taken and made (47/119 vs 7/23), is fouled more (12.5% of the time vs 8.8%), and generates more and 1's (24 vs 7). All of these combined to make Harden more effective at generating offense for himself off the P&R.

Q: If what you say in your article is true, why did Daryl Morey say that Lin was the 5th-best P&R player in the league? This seems contradictory

Daryl made this comment in his end of season debrief with SR610 [you can re-listen to it here], starting at the 3:15 mark.

His exact quote was, "He's the 5th best pick-and-roll player in the league on 9 pick-and-rolls a game."

I believe Daryl is referring to Lin's effectiveness when passing to the roll man in a pick-and-roll situation. This blog post on ESPN offers more perspective.

If this is the stat that Daryl was referring to, it is a little bit of a nuanced way of framing the issue as it excludes Lin's personal offensive output and his passes to the other 4 players on the court other than the roll man. Part of me feels that Daryl was somewhat economical with the data here, probably to show support to a player he felt had been unfairly criticized (or to drive up his trade value, all you conspiracy theorists).

That said it is very encouraging to know that with the offensively challenged Omer Asik as his P&R roll man, Lin was able to end as the 5th most productive assist man.

This means that Jeremy Lin is highly effective at generating offense for the P&R roll man which is encouraging news for his ability to set up Dwight off the play this season.

How effective are Lin and Harden as three point shooters?

Without weighing in too much on this, I direct you to the shot charts below courtesy of NBA stats, so you can draw your own conclusions.

Harden

Lin

Click to expand...

agree!

#239 Knickskiller, Jul 22, 2013
duluth111222 I.D.I.O.T

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Seeing #12 written in this picture gave me chills for a second. I pictured Rafer Alston driving to the basket doing a tear drop lay up again.
Click to expand...

LOL. Those good old times...

[In Barat's voice] High five!

#240 duluth111222, Jul 22, 2013

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