Get back a Hirsh type player? You mean a 6'9 pitcher that throws 87 mph on his fastball and has a 5 era? Sounds like a solid plan
Would you rather have Hirsh, in his 2nd year, cheap for 4 more years, topping out at 87, or Jennings, free-agent-to-be, for $5MM topping out at 85 - also with an ERA around 5 since coming back from the arm injury? If you're not in contention, you take Hirsh every time. There's absolutely zero downside.
Why are you singling out a part of Jennings season but not a part of Hirsh's season? That doesn't make sense to me. For the year, Jennings' ERA is about a full run lower than Hirsh's.
Because Jennings got hurt, was out for 6 weeks, and has been noticably different since coming back - his WHIP is up, strikeouts are down, ERA is up, etc. Is there a similar circumstance to consider for Hirsh? Regardless, even if Jennings' ERA was 1.00, you'd take Hirsh every time if you're out of contention. There's no benefit whatsoever to keeping him in that scenario.
Maybe it's not fair to say he's been "noticably" different since he only had 2 starts pre-injury so it's hard to say what he was going to do. But that said, he's been a near 5.00 ERA pitcher since the injury.
So are you claiming he's a worse pitcher when he's feeling better? Because he's admitted that he was pitching hurt during those first two starts and didn't have nearly the feel for his pitches that he has now. There's no "different pitcher" -- it's just random luck, and you take the overall average, which has him as a roughly 4.00 ERA pitcher (what most people expected).
And in that same time period (after May 27), Hirsh has been a near 6.00 ERA pitcher. I can respect the argument that Hirsh makes more sense for a non-contending team, but Jennings has been the better starter this season.
Oh I'm not arguing about this season. I'm saying if we're not in contention, would you rather have the mediocre pitcher that's younger and cheap for 4 years, or the mediocre pitcher that's more expensive and a free agent in a few monts. As far as the injury, my guess is that Jennings needs a whole lot of rest or surgery at some point. Historically, he doesn't throw 85mph - my guess would be that something is still not quite right with him.
He said the other night that he hasn't hit 90 in a couple years, and his velocity has consistently been in the mid to upper 80s and he has no problem with it. That's how he pitches, and it worked for him all of last year. Maybe he's covering something up, but he says this is his regular velocity.
He should have been pulled around the 5th inning. The thing that is weird is that he throws mid 80's with his fastball which should say he is a control pitcher,but he is always behind in the count. I dont think you can compare the pitchers we traded stats where they are pitching half the time at Coors Field. If they can find someone to take him do it, and this off season dont panic and overpay for an average pitcher.
Why can't we compare them to Jennings last year, who pitched with this same velocity and posted a 3.78 ERA with half his games at Coors Field? Also, you are aware that the Astros bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, correct? Going to it regularly around the 5th might not be a great idea. Finally, I've watched games pretty regularly, and I haven't noticed any pattern of Jennings falling behind in counts.
IMHO you don't trade Oswalt. Roy O is the one reliable pitcher that we have. Roy is one of the best pitchers in baseball and those guys come along seldomly. Even if you did trade Roy O, you still wouldn't get fair value for him. I've seen some people post that you'd have to get a David Wright-type 3B or Reyes-type SS in return plus a pitcher and some more prospects. If I traded Roy O, I better be getting one of those guys back and then some and that won't happen. Roy Oswalt IMO is slowly etching his face on the Mt. Rushmore of great Astros pitchers and you just don't trade that guy. The Astros can find a market for Lidge, Wheeler, Qualls, Jennings, Lamb and Loretta. If they traded one of the bullpen trio, Jennings, Lamb and Loretta, I'd be fine as long as they got some promising prospects in return. IMHO you have to trade Jennings and get what you can for him and pitching is always a premium at the trade deadline. You may not get a team's top young prospect, but you may get two decent prospects. Its better than letting him walk after the year and getting nothing in return. If Lee didn't have a no-trade clause, I'd entertain trading him before Oswalt. As far as trading Lidge, even though he hasn't been as dominating as two years ago, teams know what he can do and its going to take that teams top prospect to pry him away from us. If the Mets inquire about him its gonna cost them Carlos Gomez (OF) or Mike Pelfrey (SP). If its the Braves its gonna cost them Saltalamacchia (C) or Yunel Escobar (SS) or Van Pope (3B). The Tigers and Red Sox (who both want more relief pitching bad) its gonna cost Cameron Maybin (OF) or Jacob Ellsbury (OF) respectively. Closers of Lidge's caliber are rare and if Gagne is getting interest with Texas than I can only imagine what kind of love Lidge would receive.
Stupid blog posts for the mothr****ing loss. Anyway, if by some dumb stroke of dumbery, Purpura designs a deal to Trade Oswalt, he better be getting Cy Young, Ted Williams, Nomar Garciaparra-prewrist injury, and Mike Schmidt in return.
heck no! with pitching being more expensive these days, you have to hold on to him. he's already locked up for a bargain compared to what other pitchers have gotten. if you do trade him, you have to get premium position players with premium talent. 3B, SS, C, and of course...SP. we do however have some guys that are about a year away from being in the bigs in Juan Gutierrez and Troy Patton, but dealing away a 200 inning pitcher with a sub 3.50 era would be tough to do, especially at his price. the only deals i would do would be Roy, Ensberg, and Everett for Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez or David Wright and Jose Reyes. That's a little lopsided in our favor, but Roy is a legit ace, and there are very few aces that play for under $15 million.
Hirsh's home/away splits are almost identical. Im not happy with what Jennings has done on the field, but I really dont feel like I lost much with the guys we gave up. If anything, Im happy because Pence cracked the lineup.
The regular sports columnists are bad enough. That fan blog is even worse. Don't know why anyone would pay attention to that guy.
