[Chron] Guard glut? What guard glut? More the merrier, according to Mike James.

I am a little bit concerned. I hope we are not going to copy the suns. If we have to copy some1, copy the spurs. However, james, wells, frances are not the typical spurse type players. I think Coach A is the perfect one to handle this group of players.

 

reading some of the replies to the blog with a strong sense of deja vu ...

 

Oh, dear. That's ... exactly what I was afraid of.

 

But i thought james was a selfish Cancer?.could it be that maybe the perciption people had of this guy was wrong?. sounds like James is ready to roar.

Great too hear he is in great shape to. having so many players competing for minutes will only keep the players on there toes and top of there games.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike James
We're going to get to camp and be running up and down that floor like chickens with their heads cut off.


Did we get Ryan Bowen back? he would be perfect for the no headed chicken offense.

 

likewise. I am worried about the lack of control on offense, which is why i tend to lean towards keeping rafer since he's the most stable at running an offense

 

So I've been on this graphical analysis kick recently. After reading this, I was wondering how SF and MJ actually compare in terms of their ability to generate points. Specifically I've been looking at whether players are above average or below average in drawing fouls and generating points via FT, as compared to generating points via FG.

Comparing SF to MJ, SF is (on average) much, much better at generating points via FT. MJ is (on average) much better at generating points via FG. Interesting notes from this graph are: SF's most productive scoring year statistically, per minute played, was his first year in Orlando (04/05). MJ's most productive scoring year, per minute played, was his year in toronto. That creates a problem, because MJ seems to get better with high amounts of Playing Time, which he might not get a ton of here . . .

anyway, here's the graph.

 

oh, and the basic point behind the above was to prove that the two aren't really redundant players. heh.

now i need to figure out a way to work assists, rebounds, and defense into all this . . .

 

It makes sense. Francis uses more penetration, while MJ has a better jumper. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw both of them on the court at the same time, with Francis at PG and MJ at SG.

 

Not sure if you can represent this graphically, but there's a "similarity formula" you can use:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/similar.html

If you want to determine how similar they've been throughout their careers, it could take some work, but that's one way of going about it.

 

I'm looking forward for another Morey trade in the following days..Hope he can trim our PG's and strengthen our wingmen and frontcourt with bigger and better contributors...watcha think guys?

 

I agree that's what we need, pulling it off isn't going to be easy IMO.

 

This is the best part of the article. I think SF3 is feeling hte same way and they both have something to prove. The talent and competition between all the guard can only make us better.

 

At least every guard offers something different...

Francis is the best at breaking down defenses.
James is the best scoring and defensive guard.
Alston is our best ball-handling and pass-first point guard.
Head is the best stand-still shooter.
And Brooks we're not sure yet.

 

I don't think there is a glut at all and in fact... I think that Alston should still be our starting point guard and having James and Francis makes him a better option for us at the point. My thoughts...

(I am not savvy enough to format the columns... sorry about the hard read)

A Statistical Look at Rafer Alston compared to Other NBA Point Guards
Including Mike James and Steve Francis

I am convinced that Rafer Alston is our best option as the starting point guard next season. After looking at the stats below (compiled from espn.com) – you might agree. Or maybe you will disagree. Either way we can have a more educated discussion than “He is a bum” and “He has a twitch”.

Durability - Games Played and Minutes
Rank Name Games Minutes MPG
1 Gilbert Arenas, WAS 74 2942 39.8
2 Stephon Marbury, NYK 74 2751 37.2
3 Andre Miller, DEN/PHI 80 2964 37.1
4 Rafer Alston, HOU 82 3036 37.0
5 Deron Williams, UTH 80 2952 36.9
6 Chris Paul, NOR 64 2357 36.8
7 Jason Kidd, NJN 80 2936 36.7
8 Mo Williams, MIL 68 2474 36.4
9 Chauncey Billups, DET 70 2537 36.2
10 Steve Nash, PHO 76 2684 35.3
27 Mike James, MIN 82 2073 25.3
25 Steve Francis, NYK 44 1237 28.1

No other point guard in the top 10 played as many games as Rafer last year and he was in the top four in minutes played among point guards at 37 minutes a game BUT he played the most total minutes of any point guard last year.

An NBA season is 82 games long and an NBA game is 48 minutes long.

31 year old Rafer Alston was healthy enough and durable enough to play in each and every game and to be on the court 77% of each game. Note… James played all 82 games but only averaged 25.3 minutes per game (53% of each game) compared to Francis playing 28.1 minutes per game (58% of each game).

Obviously, part of the reason he played so much was the lack of any sort of viable backup point guard on the roster. The other reason was that the Rockets are a better team when he is on the court than when he is not on the court (Hollinger's PER to the contrary). Makes one wonder how much more effective Rafer will be this season if he only has to play 25 to 30 minutes a game. Fresher legs equal a better 3pt percentage, better free throw percentage, a better defense.

Being a Play Maker - Assists
Rank Name Games Assists APG
1 Steve Nash, PHO 76 884 11.6
2 Deron Williams, UTH 80 745 9.3
3 Jason Kidd, NJN 80 736 9.2
4 Andre Miller, DEN/PHI 80 625 7.8
5 T.J. Ford, TOR 75 595 7.9
6 Chris Paul, NOR 64 569 8.9
7 Baron Davis, GSW 63 509 8.1
8 Chauncey Billups, DET 70 502 7.2
9 Jamaal Tinsley, IND 72 494 6.9
10 Rafer Alston, HOU 82 444 5.4
34 Steve Francis, NYK 44 170 3.9
37 Mike James, MIN 82 297 3.6

Rafer ended up in the top ten for total assists for point guards. He finished in the top ten having played a food 1/2 of the season without the Rockets top two scoring options. Meaning that most of his assists came via Luther Head, Shane Battier and Juwan Howard… not what I would call strong finishers. I would make the case that his assist numbers (both total and assist per game) would have been higher if he played the whole season with a healthy Yao and TMac.

Being an Offensive Player – The Three Point Shot
Per Game...... Totals…………
Rank Name Games Made Took Made Took Percent
1 G. Arenas, WAS 74 2.8 7.9 205 584 .351
2 Rafer Alston, HOU 82 2.3 6.5 192 529 .363
3 L. Barbosa, PHO 80 2.4 5.5 190 438 .434
4 Mike Bibby, SAC 82 2.1 5.9 173 481 .360
5 Steve Nash, PHO 76 2.1 4.5 156 343 .455
6 Jason Kidd, NJN 80 1.6 4.5 124 361 .343
7 S. Marbury, NYK 74 1.7 4.7 123 345 .357
8 Chucky Atkins, MEM 75 1.5 4.1 116 306 .379
9 Smush Parker, LAL 82 1.3 3.7 110 301 .365
10 C. Billups, DET 70 1.6 4.5 109 316 .345
19 Mike James, MIN 82 1.0 2.6 80 215 .372
33 Steve Francis, NYK 44 1.0 2.5 42 111 .378

Rafer made the second most three points among point guards last year and his 3pt percentage is number nine among point guards. Note… James ranks higher on percentage. Francis did not qualify to due to having only played 44 games. Again I feel like reduced minutes (25 to 30 minute range) will increase Rafer’s three point shooting percentage.


Being an Offensive Player – The Two Point Shot
An obvious weakness to anyone who has watched as Rafer shoots the (often rushed) midrange jumper. While he is most effective finishing at the rim (come on… everyone loves the floater), his poor free throw shooting (see below) causes him to pull up short more often than not to avoid being fouled.

Name 2pt percentage
Mike James, MIN .446
Steve Francis, NYK .442
Rafer Alston, HOU .389

Being an Offensive Player – Free Throws
Another obvious weakness. While he seemed better in the clutch, Rafer struggled too much from the line last season. I would again contend that his percentage will go up with reduced minutes.

Name Free Throw percentage
Mike James, MIN 83.69
Steve Francis, NYK 82.93
Rafer Alston, HOU 73.44



Defense – Steals
We all know how well Rafer does in this category as he is ranked fifth out of point guards in steals per game.

Rank Name Games Minutes Steals Average
1 Baron Davis, GSW 63 35.3 135 2.14
2 G. Arenas, WAS 74 39.8 139 1.88
3 J. Tinsley, IND 72 31.1 117 1.63
4 Jason Kidd, NJN 80 36.7 127 1.59
5 Rafer Alston, HOU 82 37.0 129 1.57
Steve Francis, NYK 44 28.1 41 0.93
Mike James, MIN 82 25.3 55 0.67

What is even more impressive is how much of a better defender statistically he is than both Francis and James.


Rebounds
I was a bit surprised by how well Rafer ranks in this category.

Rank Name Games Minutes Rebounds Per Game
1 Jason Kidd, NJN 80 36.7 8.2
2 G. Arenas, WAS 74 39.8 4.6
3 Andre Miller, DEN/PHI 80 37.1 4.4
4 Steve Nash, PHO 76 35.3 3.5
5 Rafer Alston, HOU 82 37.0 3.4
24 Mike James, MIN 82 25.3 2.0
Steve Francis, NYK 44 28.1 3.6

Note… James ranks higher on percentage. Francis did not qualify to due to having only played 44 games and his average is only slightly higher.


Summary
Just to break it down. Rafer Alston was the starting point guard last year for the Houston Rockets. He played in all 82 games and helped lead the team to the fifth best record in the Association with 52 wins. I say “helped lead” because Yao Ming only played in 48 games (missing 34) and Tracy McGrady only played in 71 games (missing 11).

I feel like a strong case can be made that with reduced minutes (leading to fresher legs and overall higher shooting percentage) and with more weapons to distribute the ball to (a health Yao, a health TMac, an in shape Bonzi, a player in Scola, and of course James and Francis)… Rafer is the point guard we need to lead the Rockets deep into the playoffs.

He is not a castoff or third string point guard. Nor is he a superstar. But the statistics show that he is our best option with the roster we currently have.

Now if he will just stop getting arrested.

 

This analysis is very shortsighted, you didn't make any attempt to judge efficiency or to control for the fact that all 3 guys played on vastly different teams in different systems for different periods of time with different roles.

Finally, statistical evidence aside, your conclusion doesn't pass the "laugh" test. It's laughable and the Rockets know that he's an issue, which is why the Rockets made obtainiing not one, but three PG's to replace him a priority this offseason and have been trying to move him lately, and why they have been trying to replace Rafer for over a year now.

 

Thanks for that analysis David. I have learned something in the last two years here... there always has to be someone to blame.

Ryan Bowen, Juwan Howard, Rafer Alston.. all three of these guys took their turns as the butt of the criticism.

Rafer isn't a bad point guard... and he isn't the weakest link. The problem here is that people see his shooting percentage and don't take into account some of the things you mentioned in your post (mostly that the guy was playing more minutes than he really should have been)

I haven't seen Francis or James in a Rockets uni yet, so I have no expectations for them. But I do have some for Rafer. With three people able to handle the position there is more than enough time for them to get rest and give their all when the get in the game. Shoot if you count Brooks there is four.

Everything is going to depend on what Morey can get in trade, because I don't see Rafer going anywhere for chump change.

 

No - he's just the guy that opposing teams would always leave open and wanted shooting the ball as much as possible, which he was happy to oblige to the tune of setting a franchise record for prolific FG shooting, managing to do it on a slower paced team in a slower paced era as a role player.

If that is not the weak link, I don't know what to call it.

 

Sure... my analysis only takes in account last year. But the fact of the matter is that the NBA is a "what have you done for me lately league". If it wasn't... we should look at signing Reggie and Houston and all of the other "superstars" who haven't played in the last three or four years.

Based on the stats, Rafer generally put up better numbers across the board and was more durable than James and Francis. There are reasons that James and Francis didn't play more or produce more than Rafer. You can chalk it up to being on different teams or different systems or whatever. But the stats are the stats.