Chron: Bosh will be a key piece of Rockets' puzzle

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/6985746.html

This was what I was talking about earlier to the people that think we could get away with trading for Bosh with basically just Hill, a pick or two and expirings. He has Toronto somewhat by the balls, but not completely. If he doesn't work with Toronto to get a sign and trade, he's leaving 30 million dollars on the table.

 

You say that Toronto wouldn't call Bosh's bluff because they wouldn't get anything for him. At the same time, you could say that Bosh wouldn't call Toronto's bluff because if they decide they don't want to make a trade unless they get something decent in return (ie, more than Hill and two picks), they could completely shut out Bosh and he leaves 30 million dollars on the table.

Think about this hypothetical (and this is probably really close to reality if we offer just Hill and 2 picks):

1. Assume Bosh wants nothing more than to go to Houston. It's his #1 choice.
2. Assume Houston wants to try and get Bosh in a steal (Hill and 2 picks)
3. Assume the other parties interested in Bosh are offering regular deals (Miami offers Beasley, picks and a trade exception; OKC offers Green, picks and a trade exception, Knicks offer whoever, Nets offer whoever, etc).

This is how I think they hypothetical would play out. Bosh would "demand" a trade with Houston. We would offer Hill and two picks. The other teams "in the running" will offer their slightly better deals. Toronto I think would tell Houston to stfu and try and convince Bosh to go to Miami or OKC because they are offering more.

This next part is key, because most of you for some reason think that Bosh would tell Toronto to stfu and sign with Miami or OKC (he can't sign with Houston obviously) and Toronto has nothing. This is not what would happen. Why would Bosh sign straight up with Miami when he could get traded there and get the extra 30 million?

So what would happen is now Toronto would deal with Miami or OKC as they have the better deals. At this point, Houston could either up their offer to match Miami and OKC, or they lose out on the Bosh sweepstakes.

The only way my assumptions are faulty is if it turns out that OKC or Miami are trying to low-ball Toronto as well. This is possible, but probably not likely, due to the fact that when you have three teams after the same player, they are all going to try and out-bid each other.

Don't get me wrong, we have a shot. But if Miami and OKC outbid us, we have to raise our offer as well.

 

The only way Bosh has complete leverage on Toronto is if the following is true (I like lists, deal with it ) :

1. He doesn't care about losing the 30 million.
2. It's a team with cap space he would like nothing better than to go to, not Houston.
3. Colangelo is under some unreasonable pressure to get something back that he's desperate.

#3 is probably true to some extent.

It's possible that both #1 and #2 are true. Lets say he wanted to sign with OKC. It's possible that he would rather NOT have Toronto trade with OKC because that means the team gets slightly worse than if he were to just outright sign with them. So in that case he might just willingly leave 30 million on the table so that his team will be marginally better.

Of course, this situation is IMPOSSIBLE if Houston is the team he demands to go to, because he has to get here via trade, which means he has to work with Toronto. And that's when you say he could bluff signing with OKC or Miami, but that is covered in the hypothetical I just posted above.

 

I personally think we have a 20% chance to land Bosh. It's probably 20% for each of Miami and OKC as well. And then the other 40% are some combination of crazy things like him going to the Lakers or Mavs or Knicks or staying in Toronto.

 

You could play that both ways though. The owner could look at it like "well, you let Bosh manhandle you into taking a lesser deal rather than taking a risk, calling his bluff and getting a better return" and then fire him based on that.

Or... if you are Colangelo, you might think "you know... if the best I'm going to get is Jordan Hill and two picks, I'm probably getting fired because that means we have no capspace for a good 2-3 years and our best player is Bargniani. So I'm going to take a risk, call Bosh's bluff and if I can grab a better player, then that would buy me a new contract extension". You could also play it this way.

I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know how Colangelo will act, but niether should you. We can't make the assumption that Colangelo will be a giant wuss and cave into Bosh's demands.

And of course, you once again completely ignore the fact that in order for that to happen, Bosh would have to leave 30 million dollars on the table. Is Bosh that determined in what team he wants to play for that he would leave that kind of cash on the table?

I think if he's willing to leave 30 million dollars on the table, then he should just outright sign with Miami or OKC or whomever for as much money as they can afford. Don't even bother letting Toronto trade you because that would only make your new team weaker.