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Chad Ford's first 2013 Mock Draft

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by redhotrox, Apr 9, 2013.

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redhotrox Contributing Member

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Rockets have no picks, but I thought some people interested in the draft might want to read anyway. Right now the Rockets convey the #20 pick from the TWill trade, and the Toronto pick we traded to OKC for Harden is at #8.

The Final Four is over and the Louisville Cardinals are the national champions. With their victory, the college basketball season has come to an end. Likewise, the scouting of competitive games also has ended, and thus we're ready to reveal our first full mock draft of 2013.

All year we have kept tabs on the draft stock of players using our Big Board and the Top 100 list. Both tools are a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative value in the draft.

A mock draft is a different animal altogether. In a mock draft we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather, what each team in the draft would likely do with their pick. At this point very little is set in stone, as we are still in the NBA regular season. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next two months.

Draft order will change, as will the stock of a number of players thanks to draft camps in Portsmouth, Va., and Chicago in the coming month. We still won't know which underclassmen officially declare for the draft until the April 28 deadline. We won't even be sure of the non-lottery draft order until the regular season ends. Nor will we know the results of the lottery draft order until the NBA draft lottery on May 21. Thus, the mock draft order begins with the lottery teams owning the greatest possibility of winning the No. 1 pick (by percentage), then followed by the remaining teams in reverse order of current standings.

If you want to check out what your team would do with the No. 1 pick, check out our Lottery Mock Draft Machine that features more than 2,000 scenarios.

Here's my initial stab at a full first-round mock draft for 2013 (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state their intentions on the draft declares), after accounting for team needs.

1. Nerlens Noel
Charlotte Bobcats (25 percent chance to win lottery )
COLLEGE: Kentucky
AGE: 18
HT: 6-11
WT: 215
POS: C

Analysis: The Bobcats need help everywhere. With the possible exception of small forward (where last year's No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is holding down the fort), Charlotte doesn't really have an A-list player on its roster. The Bobcats already have a young, athletic project in Bismack Biyombo, but every scout feels that Noel has much more potential than Biyombo and most GMs feel Noel has the most upside of any player in the draft. Noel's ACL injury is an obvious red flag, but even that could turn into a blessing. If the Bobcats have to sit Noel for much of the season, they'll likely finish with the best chance of winning the lottery in 2014. With Andrew Wiggins and a stellar high school class of 2014 coming up, it might be worth the wait.

2. Marcus Smart
Orlando Magic (19.9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma St.
AGE: 23
HT: 6-4
WT: 225
POS: PG

Analysis: The Orlando Magic have promising young players at the 3, 4 and 5. While they could certainly upgrade there (and might if Noel is available), I expect them to take a backcourt player at No. 2. Jameer Nelson is 31 and starting to slow down. Adding a dominant player like Smart would upgrade the position immensely. While Smart has his weaknesses (his jump shot is shaky and he needs to tighten up his handle), he's strong, has a great motor and toughness, is a beast defensively and brings the leadership a young rudderless team like the Magic desperately needs.

3. Ben McLemore
Phoenix Suns (15.6)
COLLEGE: Kansas
AGE: 20
HT: 6-5
WT: 195
POS: SG

Analysis: The Phoenix Suns shot 32 percent on 3-pointers this season and desperately need to improve. Their starting 2-guards, Shannon Brown and Wesley Johnson, both struggled from 3. Adding McLemore makes a lot of sense. He's one of the two or three best pure shooters in the draft and has great length and athleticism at his position. He can be a bit of a wallflower, but when he gets going he's as good as anyone in the draft.

4. Otto Porter
Cleveland Cavaliers (11.9)
COLLEGE: Georgetown
AGE: 19
HT: 6-8
WT: 200
POS: SF

Analysis: The Cavaliers have dynamic scorers in both backcourt positions in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. Their frontcourt is also virtually set with Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao and Tyler Zeller. Their biggest hole is at the 3, and Porter looks like the perfect complementary piece. He's a jack of all trades, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective and is a team player. I can't think of a better fit for Porter or the Cavs.

5. Victor Oladipo
Detroit Pistons (8.8)
COLLEGE: Indiana
AGE: 20
HT: 6-5
WT: 214
POS: SG

Analysis: The Pistons' biggest need is at small forward. Since shipping Tayshaun Prince off to Memphis, they haven't really had anyone fill his spot. However, I think Oladipo is a better fit for Detroit. Rodney Stuckey has worn out his welcome in Detroit and Oladipo is the type of player that thrived with the Pistons when President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars was still suiting up. Olapido is an elite defender, an explosive athlete and a rapidly improving offensive player. They could settle on a player like Shabazz Muhammad here, but I think Oladipo is the best player on the board for them.

6. Trey Burke
New Orleans Hornets (5.5)
COLLEGE: Michigan
AGE: 20
HT: 6-1
WT: 175
POS: PG

Analysis: The Hornets have interesting young players at every position right now. Their biggest need is probably at small forward, though Al-Farouq Aminu has started to show some promise this year. Clearly the Hornets have a very solid point guard in Greivis Vasquez. However, Burke gives them a completely different look and would be a nice complement to Vasquez at the point. He might be a bit undersized, but his toughness, all-around game, mistake-free basketball and winning attitude should be a great fit in New Orleans.

7. Shabazz Muhammad
Sacramento Kings (5.4)
COLLEGE: UCLA
AGE: 20
HT: 6-6
WT: 225
POS: SF

Analysis: The Kings' biggest hole is at small forward, where they continue to feel the sting from the disastrous John Salmons trade from a couple years ago. Salmons is a shell of himself and the Kings are desperately in need of an upgrade. While Muhammad has been a slight disappointment as a freshman, he's tough, knows how to score and brings a strong motor to the table. I'm not sure if there will be enough shots for Muhammad with DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton, but I assume the Kings, under new management whether in Sacramento or Seattle, will start to clean house.

8. Alex Len
Oklahoma City Thunder via Toronto Raptors (2.2)
COLLEGE: Maryland
AGE: 19
HT: 7-1
WT: 225
POS: C

Analysis: The Thunder get this pick from the Raptors (which the Rockets received as part of the Kyle Lowry trade only to move it onto OKC as part of the James Harden deal) as long as the Raptors aren't picking in the top three. Oklahoma City needs to find a long-term replacement for Harden at the 2 and a long-term backup for Kendrick Perkins at the 5. Len seems like great value here. He's one of the two or three biggest players in the draft, has a decent offensive game and can rebound and block shots. It really feels like he's scratching the surface. The Thunder can afford to bring him along slowly and hope he develops.

9. Anthony Bennett
Washington Wizards (2.3)
COLLEGE: UNLV
AGE: 20
HT: 6-8
WT: 240
POS: PF

Analysis: The Wizards would have to be thrilled if they can land Bennett this late in the draft. Some teams will look at him as high as No. 2. Not only is Bennett the best player left on the board, but he also fits a need for Washington at the 4. Emeka Okafor has been solid there, but he's not the long-term answer. And at this point it doesn't look like young players like Jan Vesely or Kevin Seraphin are, either. Bennett's NBA body combined with his ability to score anywhere on the floor should give the Wizards another big boost next year.

10. Gary Harris
Minnesota Timberwolves (1.1)
COLLEGE: Michigan St.
AGE: 18
HT: 6-4
WT: 210
POS: SG

Analysis: I think it's pretty likely that Harris decides to stay in college another year and undergo shoulder surgery. However, if he does end up declaring, he's a very good fit for a Timberwolves team that still is searching for a long-term solution at shooting guard. The team is shooting just 30 percent from beyond the arc this year and getting a player like Harris who can really knock down shots is a priority.

11. Cody Zeller
Philadelphia 76ers (0.8)
COLLEGE: Indiana
AGE: 20
HT: 6-11
WT: 210
POS: C

Analysis: At the start of the season there was talk of Zeller being the No. 1 pick. However, he didn't improve as much as scouts expected him to this season and his stock has slid a bit. He'd be a nice fit in Philly, however. With the exception of Spencer Hawes, the Sixers just don't have a lot of size. While I don't think Zeller is worthy of a top-five pick anymore, he's a good value here.

12. Mitch McGary
Portland Trail Blazers (0.7)
COLLEGE: Michigan
AGE: 20
HT: 6-10
WT: 250
POS: PF

Analysis: McGary mania is in full swing after a terrific run in the NCAA tourney, but NBA scouts still are getting their arms around his draft stock. They've really only been scouting this Mitch McGary for about eight games. However, on the surface, it appears that McGary has a lot of promise. He's got an incredible motor, is a good athlete, has great hands, rebounds, blocks shots and has shown a midrange game. It's possible he's a one-hit wonder, but I think more and more teams believe he's the same kid that ranked as one of the top five players in the country after his junior year of high school. He could be a great replacement for J.J. Hickson should he bolt in free agency this summer.

13. Michael Carter-Williams
Dallas Mavericks (0.6)
COLLEGE: Syracuse
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 175
POS: PG

Analysis: The Mavs have been riding Darren Collison all season at the point and there's a chance they re-sign him as a restricted free agent this summer. Whether they do or don't, Carter-Williams seems like a safe play. When he's good, he looks like a top-five pick. When he's off, he doesn't look like a first-rounder. He's a good passer with great size for his position and a very smooth athlete. He lacks a jump shot and needs to get stronger, but there's so much potential there, the Mavs could swing for the fences with him at No. 13.

14. Mason Plumlee
Phoenix Suns via Los Angeles Lakers (0.5)
COLLEGE: Duke
AGE: 23
HT: 6-10
WT: 230
POS: PF

Analysis: The Suns will get this pick via the Lakers as part of the Steve Nash trade if L.A. ends up in the lottery. If the Suns go with a shooter with their first pick, don't be surprised if they try to add some size with their second one. Plumlee's combination of athleticism and size might make the most sense since, while he isn't exactly tough, he's tougher than most of the finesse young bigs on the roster.

15. Glenn Robinson III
Milwaukee Bucks
COLLEGE: Michigan
AGE: 19
HT: 6-6
WT: 210
POS: SF

Analysis: The Bucks don't have a lot going for them right now at the small forward position -- especially since sending Tobias Harris out of town in the J.J. Redick deal. Robinson would give them yet another long, athletic forward who can fly up and down the floor. The difference with Robinson? He can shoot, and let's face it, there's some karma at play here, too. The Bucks drafted Robinson III's father with the No. 1 pick in 1994. Keep it in the family.

16. Kelly Olynyk
Boston Celtics
COLLEGE: Gonzaga
AGE: 21
HT: 7-0
WT: 238
POS: C

Analysis: The Celtics definitely need size, and Olynyk is the sort of stretch big man that the team has liked in the past. His low-post game is still so-so, but he's a very difficult matchup on the high post. His ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the basket is special for a player his size. He could be a nice complement, in the long run, with Jared Sullinger.

17. C.J. McCollum
Utah Jazz
COLLEGE: Lehigh
AGE: 21
HT: 6-3
WT: 190
POS: PG

Analysis: The Jazz have been in the market for a point guard for a while and had their sights set on both Jimmer Fredette and Damian Lillard in the last two drafts only to lose them both. I'm not sure if McCollum is a true point guard, but I'm also not sure the Jazz need one as both Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks can handle the ball. What they really want is another shooter, and McCollum shot 51 percent from 3-point range before going down with a season-ending foot injury. He's one of the most dynamic scorers in the draft and some scouts believe he could be this year's Lillard.

18. Dario Saric
Atlanta Hawks
COLLEGE: Croatia
AGE: 19
HT: 6-10
WT: 223
POS: SF

Analysis: There are mixed messages on whether Saric will enter the 2013 NBA draft. If he declares and slides this far, he probably won't stay in the draft. But if the Hawks can get their hands on him, they are getting a player with an off-the-charts basketball IQ who can play a lot of point forward in the pros. He's struggled a bit this year, but most international scouts in the know think the talent makes him worthy of a lottery pick. He's a great get here.

19. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Chicago Bulls
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 20
HT: 6-5
WT: 190
POS: SG

Analysis: Every year the Bulls are in the hunt for a shooter at the 2-guard position and every year they come up just a bit short. Landing Caldwell-Pope could be their lucky day, as he has both the size and shooting ability to be a serious threat in the NBA. He's played on such a poor team the past two years that his stock has fallen a bit, but if he's surrounded by other players who can score the ball (and he would be in Chicago), he could suddenly be the steal of the draft.

20. Jamaal Franklin
Atlanta Hawks via Houston Rockets
COLLEGE: San Diego St.
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 195
POS: SG

Analysis: Franklin's game defies a position. He's a super-athletic wing who rebounds, plays above the rim and can do just about everything (but shoot) on the floor. The Hawks could really use a player like Franklin as a jack-of-all-trades coming off the bench.

21. Jeff Withey
Utah Jazz via Golden State Warriors
COLLEGE: Kansas
AGE: 23
HT: 7-0
WT: 235
POS: C

Analysis: If the Jazz go small with their first pick, don't be surprised to see them go big with their second one. Al Jefferson will most likely leave over the summer and Derrick Favors would probably take over as the starting 5, but he'll need help. Withey isn't special on the offensive end, but he's a dominant shot blocker who stays out of foul trouble. They'll be able to find 15 minutes a night for him.

22. Gorgui Dieng
Brooklyn Nets
COLLEGE: Louisville
AGE: 23
HT: 6-11
WT: 235
POS: C

Analysis: The Nets could really use some backup help at the 5, and they need someone who can step in and play right now. Dieng drops a few spots on our board because of his age, but he should be a terrific fit as a backup to Brook Lopez in Brooklyn. The team could really use his shot-blocking abilities.

23. Rudy Gobert
Indiana Pacers
COLLEGE: France
AGE: 20
HT: 7-1
WT: 220
POS: PF

Analysis: The Pacers have plenty of young players and no real pressing needs right now. If there was a long-term replacement for David West here, they'd obviously take him. But without one, look for them to swing for the fences and take a player with huge upside in Gobert. He has a 7-foot-9 wingspan and is a good athlete. He's not ready for the NBA, but the Pacers will have the luxury of developing him over in France for the next couple of years.

24. Isaiah Austin
New York Knicks
COLLEGE: Baylor
AGE: 19
HT: 7-0
WT: 215
POS: PF

Analysis: Austin was hailed as a potential top-10 pick coming into the college season. However, he struggled a bit on both ends of the ball and scouts became wary. He needs a lot of work on both his body and his jump shot, but on long-term upside, he might be worth a shot here.

25. Allen Crabbe
Los Angeles Clippers
COLLEGE: Cal
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 210
POS: SG

Analysis: The Clippers could always use more shooting, and when Crabbe gets hot, he's very difficult to contain. He can be a bit lackadaisical on the defensive end, but at this point in the draft, he's a very good value.

26. Steven Adams
TWolves via Memphis Grizzlies
COLLEGE: Pittsburgh
AGE: 19
HT: 7-0
WT: 240
POS: C

Analysis: Adams probably should've spent another year in school at Pittsburgh and played himself into the lottery. He's got that sort of talent. But he's so raw offensively, anyone that drafts him is going to have to be patient. On the defensive end, however? He can play right now.

27. James Michael McAdoo
Denver Nuggets
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 20
HT: 6-9
WT: 223
POS: PF

Analysis: McAdoo was considered a potential top-five pick at the beginning of the season. But his lack of polish offensively and high turnover rate scared off scouts. There's no question he's an NBA athlete and has the body, but he's still a pretty big work in progress. The Nuggets could really use a little more help in the frontcourt and he could be a nice long-term investment.

28. Glen Rice Jr.
Oklahoma City Thunder
COLLEGE: Georgia Tech
AGE: 22
HT: 6-5
WT: 206
POS: SG

Analysis: At the moment, Rice is dominating the D-League for the Rio Grande Vipers. He was dismissed from Georgia Tech last year, so he still has draft eligibility. Since being named a starter he's been averaging 17.6 ppg, shooting 42 percent from 3-point range and averaging eight rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He looks like the sort of player the Thunder would steal late in the first round.

29. Kyle Anderson
San Antonio Spurs
COLLEGE: UCLA
AGE: 19
HT: 6-9
WT: 235
POS: SF

Analysis: Anderson might be the most eccentric player in the draft. Nicknamed "SloMo," he's a big point power forward who can handle the ball, make terrific passes and rebound. He could end up filling the same niche that Boris Diaw (his best comp) did.

30. P.J. Hairston
Cleveland Cavaliers via Miami Heat
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 20
HT: 6-5
WT: 220
POS: SG

Analysis: The Cavaliers might have their backcourt of the future set, but they can always use depth. Hairston is big enough to play the 2 and the 3, and he can be a terrific shooter. He's also tough and aggressive and understands a role coming off the bench. The Cavs are big believers in the numbers, and all of Hairston's advanced statistic profiles come out high, so you could see him sneak into the first round.
Click to expand...

#1 redhotrox, Apr 9, 2013

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Good Lord this draft is going to be horrible...

#2 J Sizzle, Apr 9, 2013
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Marcus Smart is the only player I see that really has potential

#3 CertifiedTroll, Apr 9, 2013
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Marcus Smart has high bust potential.

Tyreke Evans all over again.

#4 basketballholic, Apr 9, 2013
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What a horrible list. In a year with no good upper classmen POY candidates, it should be mostly freshmen at the top, I dont care how bad they underwhelmed. Heres my list which will be more accurate than Ford's by the end:

1. Nerlens Noel
2. That Crazy Forreal Greek TMac
3. Shabazz Muhammad
4. Mitch Mcgary
5. Marcus Smart
6. Isaiah Austin
7. Cody Zeller
8. Kelly Olynyk
9. Glenn Robinson
10. Trey Burke

#5 Spacemoth, Apr 9, 2013
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Man this draft looks horrible

#6 ric_flair, Apr 9, 2013
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Its amazing how weak this draft is after the top 7. Morey is a genius because of how he sold the Raptors pick

#7 Captain Hook, Apr 9, 2013

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Captain Hook said: ↑

Its amazing how weak this draft is after the top 7. Morey is a genius because of how he sold the Raptors pick
Click to expand...

Really this draft is gonna be weak outside the top 3-4.

#8 Spacemoth, Apr 9, 2013
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It's a nice deep draft with a lot of good center prospects. Nothing extraordinary at the top.

#9 haoafu, Apr 9, 2013
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so we get the 3rd pick in the second round? I fully trust Morey to find a quality player with that pick as this draft is deep in the 20-45 range

#10 showa13, Apr 9, 2013
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J Sizzle said: ↑

Good Lord this draft is going to be horrible...
Click to expand...

Maybe Morey will have better luck getting a 1st round pick.

#11 coachbadlee, Apr 10, 2013
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Pretty amazing how the stocks of Zeller and Shabazz fell so much. Amazing what one year will do.

#12 AFS, Apr 10, 2013
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AFS said: ↑

Pretty amazing how the stocks of Zeller and Shabazz fell so much. Amazing what one year will do.
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Seems to happen every year now since that one year of college is necessary.

Last year Perry Jones, Lamb, Sully all fell significantly. All were top 5 picks projected at one point I believe. Jones and Sully definitely were.

With that said Shabazz and the Kings would be great. I'm sure they are eager to pick up another possible huge ego me me player.

#13 JayGoogle, Apr 10, 2013

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Cant believe Isaiah fell so far, hopefully the rumors about his dad telling him to stay if hes not in the lottery are true..Sic Em

#14 tmac2therack, Apr 10, 2013
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JayGoogle said: ↑

Seems to happen every year now since that one year of college is necessary.

Last year Perry Jones, Lamb, Sully all fell significantly. All were top 5 picks projected at one point I believe. Jones and Sully definitely were.

With that said Shabazz and the Kings would be great. I'm sure they are eager to pick up another possible huge ego me me player.
Click to expand...

Makes me wonder if that's what will end up happening to the current prospects that are entering college next year. Everyone thinks that Wiggins is the next coming of LeBron right now, but after a year of playing at the college level, will they still? People thought Shabazz was gonna be the next coming of Kobe Bryant, after all.

Same things with Jabari Parker and Julius Randle. We've heard the hype for a while now, but what happens when they play against people who are more their size? Next year should be interesting.

#15 AFS, Apr 10, 2013
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There were people were comparing Shabazz to Jerry Stackhouse and Corey Maggette since before his first college game. He wasn't very impressive in high school, tbh.

The Wade comparisons were laughable.

#16 thekad, Apr 10, 2013
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Wow, I didn't realize Marcus Smart is 23 already.

#17 DonatasFanboy, Apr 10, 2013
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Will anyone that we can realistically get be better than Furkan?

I'm interested to see who projects from the 20 to 40 range that Morey could get with the Phoenix pick.

Also interesting to see Glen Robinson III, Glen Rice Jr and James McAdoo projected to go in the first round. I have no idea how the situation with Rice Jr works. Playing in the DLeague, does he need to be drafted to play for a team, or can he sign outright with a team directly?

#18 mike_lu, Apr 10, 2013
Last edited: Apr 10, 2013

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DonatasFanboy said: ↑

Wow, I didn't realize Marcus Smart is 23 already.
Click to expand...

On Draftexpress, he's listed as 19.

#19 mike_lu, Apr 10, 2013
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Yeah, he's 19. I was pretty surprised there for a minute.

#20 DonatasFanboy, Apr 10, 2013

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