Can someone post Neyer's ESPN Insider Astros story from today?

Astros' Aces Trump Braves' Depth

Before the Braves-Astros series began, the conventional wisdom was that the Astros deserved the nod as favorites -- even though they barely squeaked into the playoffs and won fewer games than Atlanta.

As is usual (in life, if not necessarily baseball), the conventional wisdom was right.

It's not that the Astros are better than the Braves. Or if they are, whatever advantage they've got is balanced by the Braves' home-field edge. No, the CW picks the Astros for two reasons: Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt. And those are two big reasons.

Here's your assignment, class: Compare and contrast the combined stats for Clemens and Oswalt with the combined stats for Atlanta's starters in the first two games, Jaret Wright and Mike Hampton. And don't forget, the Astros play their home games in a hitter's park, the Braves in a pitcher's park.

IP W-L ERA K/9

Rocket/Roy 451 38-14 3.25 8.5

Wright/Mike 359 28-17 3.76 6.2

Not a big difference in the ERAs. But look at the innings and strikeouts; those tell us that Clemens' and Oswalt's performances this season were more real, in the sense that we can trust them as true indicators of ability. Jaret Wright, on the other hand … is he really as good as his 3.28 ERA this season? Maybe. But it'll be another year or so before we can say that with any sort of statistical confidence. In the meantime, the Astros have a big edge, pitching-wise, in a short series.

Of course, pitching (and yes, defense) is only half the game. The problem for the Braves is that they don't have an advantage in the other half, either. In their road games this season -- which is perhaps the best measure -- the Braves and Astros both scored roughly five runs per game. And that's with the Astros not acquiring Carlos Beltran until late June.

The Braves caught a bad break. Their No. 1 strength is the depth of their starting pitching, and they have to play a short series against a team with no depth but two aces. The Braves will lose again today, after which they'll just have to hope for the chance to beat Clemens in a few days.

 

Thanks for the read VesceySux

 

This is exactly what I was thinking at the begining of this series.

It is also why i'm scared as hell of a 7 game series with the Cardinals.

 

Well... if you look at the fact that its a best FOUR out of 7, and the fact that if we get to the NLCS, there's a good possibility that Oswalt and Clemens will start in 4 out of the 7 games (on normal rest... 5 out of the 7 on short rest)... then, you become the favorites.

Plus, Backe has held his own against the Cardinals this year... and we've beaten up on every single one of their pitchers this year.

Remember... we're the only ones w/ a winning record against STL... I'm worrying much more about Atlanta.