Eh? I'm glad Battier's on the team now but thought we didn't get enough for Gay + Swift. The stats projection has nothing to do with evaluating the trade however. I'm just trying to put some reality to what we can expect from Battier basis the question posed in this thread. I can't reasonably see where people expect Battier to average 14 ppg or better for the Rockets without significantly reducing other players shot attempts or to increasing the number of possessions and shot attempts for the Rockets overall - both of which seem far-fetched to me.
No, I understand what you're saying, believe me. I'm just convinced that there's a type of player you can get that brings more value than what their numbers represent- and vice versa. Bruce Bowen, Derek Fisher, Tayshaun Prince, Steve Kerr, Mario Elie, Udonis Haslem, John Salley, Kurt Rambis, Sichting- these players' value went far beyond the stat sheet- and Duncan, Shaq, Chauncey, Jordan, Hakeem, Wade, Isiah, Magic, and Bird can all attest to this. Battier doesn't need to average 18, 16, or 14 points per game- I think he just needs to give us the occasional 20-24 point game and do all the intangibles- same with Chuck Hayes.
Let's see, the worst scenerio for 111's scoring total is 45 points a game. Suppose we score 90 a game, that's 45 points for the role players. Spread between Rafer Alston, who gets around at least 10 points throughout his career, Juan Howard another 10 points, and that's 25 points remaining for Snyder, Battier, Luther Head, backup 1,3,4 and 5. If we can up our scoring to 95 points, that's just 30 points between those 7 players. I don't see Battier as an aggressive scorer who takes away shots from other players, I see him more like a Shandon Anderson who picks his spots. So the answer is no, Battier will likely hover around his career average 10/5.
10.5 and 6. Shanes not a scorer, he'll take it if he's open. He's never been a big rebounder either. I think others numbers will go up such as J-HO with Swift gone.
Hey gater you call whatever you want. Now that I know you are the stats nazi I won't quote anything from memory. Check out the 8 for 11 game in April. Get back to me....I am going off of memory from being at the game, I said I didn't care (nor did I think he cared either) what his numbers were if he helped the team, but you missed my entire point of Battier taking whatever the defense gave him so you could correct what you saw as an error. Feel better? Were you at that game? The shots he gets will depend on the amount of doubling others that occurs. I am assuming he will be open like alot of our other support players were last year. The difference is likely to be that he will make them. He will have low scoring games and high scoring games depending on the defense.
The more hope you hold, the more disappointed you will be. I will not expect that much from him. I also agree 12 and 7 is more realistic.
Battier should be taking shots that Alston takes from outside and Howard takes from the paint (as it will be Battier's job to take the open 3 and play the PF depending on matchups). Personally, I think 15 pts 7 boards and then very good steals/blocks/ast-to ratio. People like to apply Memphis' stats to predict what Battier will do, but Battier has never played with 2 first-team NBA caliber players before. I think he is going to surprise a lot of people with his production, and I would not be surprised if his +/- increases further due to his efficiency.
Bingo. Some are worried about him creating his own shot. With teams doubling TMac and Yao, our complimentary players have their shots created for them. Wide open. We now have someone who will bang those shots home consistently and make teams pay.
Battier can't put up 18 PPG and 8 RPG in Houston. Maybe elsewhere, but not here. We're a defensive minded team run through two big offensive players. That doesn't mean Battier can't be great here, though.
The beauty of having Battier is that teams have more poison to pick. I dont care if Yao averages 30 or if TMac averages 30. I am more concerned that Battier can establish himself as a legit scoring option so that teams will play Yao and TMac single coverage. Once that happens everyone can play better for it. FGA per game will change based on matchups and what an opposing team's strengths are. In the end if everyone player on the Rockets averages 17 ppg while shooting a solid team field goal % all else will fall into place.
So how many shots from Alston or Howard does he take away then? That's actually also problematic if we aren't increasing the offensive efficiency of the team by a greater margin overall. If you're just taking away shots and replacing them with Battier that's like taking 1 step back and 1.5 steps forward. Sure your offensive efficiency will improve but only very incrementally. Let's just compare this to when Mike James was on the Rockets. He was arguably one of the most efficient players offensively next to Yao and Tracy. With that being said Mike James was averaging: Code: Name FG% 3P% FT% FGA 3PA PPG Mike James 0.433 0.393 0.764 10.8 4 12.4 Battier's best FG% and 3P% are .488 and .398. These are pretty similar to Mike James stats. Is Battier's FG% and 3P% improve that much more dramatically playing with Yao and Tmac? That seems far-fetched. They have infact been pretty consistent his whole career. What is more likely is increasing Battier's shot attempts. How many FGA's is Battier going to average? Again looking at Mike James stats as a comparison James managed 10.8 FGA's and 4 3PA's per game. These stats are also in a year where the Rockets were at 78 FGA rate which is 2 more FGA's higher than their avg. under JVG. The 10 FGA 4 3PA estimate seems like a more realistic figure of attempts Battier's going to get. If this is so then I can't see how Battier is going to get anymore than 12-13 ppg.
Tango... Mike only played 25 mpg with the Rockets. I suspect Battier will get significantly more time.
Thanks for pointing that out. I missed that. Brain is turning mushy as I burn the midnight oil . That being said Yao was only taking 12 FGA's per game and the Rockets were +2 FGA's per higher than what their current roster has produced. Also Mike James was shooting at a 16.8 FGA per 40min clip meaning he was taking even more shots per minute then even Yao (15.8 FGAP40). I don't think Battier will be doing that. The question still stands though - how many more FGA's can the Rockets manufacture for Battier? Anything more than 10 seems a bit of a stretch in my opinion.
18/8 is unrealistic if both Yao and TMac are healthy. I think it's more likely 12/7. TMac will get 25/6/6 and Yao 22/12/2
I'm guesing 8 to 11, as to what that translates to in terms of points, who knows? Depends on how easy the shots are.. It's way too early to tell about ANY individual stats now. We don't know who else is gonna be on the team and how some of the young guys are going to develop (I'm especially curious about Snyder, and maybe Luther Head). Also in question is whether Yao or Tracy will still feel the burden to go for 25 points every gamen, or would the Rockets use them to draw the attention of the D and play a more equal opportunity offense. A thought that came across my mind is if there are more firepower around them, Yao and Tracy might be able spend more energy on D, which could make this squad a really great defensive unit with the added length and atheleticism in Snyder and Battier.
i'm figuring 10/5, but adding good leadership and some intangibles. i still hate the trade as much as ever though. i don't understand why you guys think he can go up to 18/8. in most cases, guys that move onto teams with two superstars, their numbers go down and not up. it seems that the numbers for the guys on the heat with wade and shaq or the lakers with kobe and shaq had their stats go down and not up.
From a personal fantasy basketball point of view: Battier gets: 14 ppg 6.5 rebs 2 asts 1.5 steals 1.5 blocks 50% FG 1.7 3pts just a very rough out of the blue estimate... I did have Battier on my fantasy basketball teams for 05-06 hehehe. I know its just stats but the 1.5 steal and 1.5 block proves Battier as a great defensive asset.
Here's what I'm looking at from Yao, T-Mac & Battier. Last year, T-Mac's ppg was 24.4 & Yao's was 22.3. That's 46.7 from the 2 of them. With Battier there, I expect the 3 of them to average 66.7 ppg. Now is Battier going to average 20 ppg? NO!! But his average plus Yao & T-Mac's increased ppg due to opponent's not being able to double team Yao & T-Mac will add up to 20 ppg. That's team stats & that's what Battier brings to the court. 7 boards a game would be nice for Battier.
