To be honest, I actually think 12 ppg is already on the high side. Out of time to explain why but I'll leave it at that for now.
While I do agree that 15-8 (let alone 18-8) is unreasonable considering the sytem we play and the type of player Battier is, but your comments about Battier's scoring role in Memphis are not taking into account their team. First, they had plenty of shoot-first players during his time there (Gasol, Miller, J-Will, Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson, so there weren't a ton of shots to go around. When Battier did shoot, he scored at a pretty good clip. Second, there was not a single player on that Memphis team that required a consistent double-team. Maybe, just maybe, Gasol did when against a smaller four or poor post defender, but more often than not those open shots went to one of their spot-up guards because of Brown's emphasis upon ball rotation. Still, if Battier plays the four, then the paint will open wide open for Yao and if Battier is at the three, he will be the recipient of plenty open kick-outs from both Yao and McGrady. While no one should expect All-Star numbers, Battier is a good shooter who will get more shot opportunities on this team.
Thats what I'm talking about. Everyone thinks shooting as just 3's, but what about the in between game? I think the Rox are constructing this roster for the mismatches. Now after Howard goes out in Dallas, the Rox can slide over Shane and insert a atheletic guy like Snyder. When the Rox play Phoenix, they can slide Shane to Marion or bring in snyder and slide shane to diaw and put snyder on marion. they have a good concept.
If Shane averages 12 and 7 I will be very happy. More important than his scoring and rebounding will be his team defense as well as perimeter 1on1 defense. He will be a great leader and a steadying hand when things get tough. He will also take a charge or 2 a game. Hopefully Rudy Gay is a pot smoker.....
I dont think there is any way Battier can average 18 and 8 but I would be happy with 13 points and 7-8 rebounds but who cares as long as he hits open shots and grabs a decent amount of rebounds because he does much more than the stats tell.
Again, why in the world are pepople obsessed with individual points and rebounds? Jason Collins averages something like 5 points and 4 rebound a game and he's great. Bruce Bowen gives you 7 points and 2 rebounds and he's great. Mo Taylor could give you 17 points and 6 rebounds and he stinks. I don't care about the individual stats for any of the Rockets players as long as they win.
10/5. That's my prediction. Not a knock on him, by any means. Even with those "crappy" stats I saw him as an important player on the Grizzlies, a player I wanted here on the rockets. And how the hell does anyone expect him to average 7-8 rebounds a game? He played plenty of PF for the grizz, got 35mpg, and tops off at 5rpg. Memphis is a great defensive team with plenty of rebounds to go around. I can understand people would think Shane's PPG would go up because he shoots so efficiently, but why the hell does anyone think his rebounds will go up?
It's because we're ranked 4th in points allowed (91.7)...but 29 out of 30 in points scored (90.1) and 20 out of 30 in point margin differential (-1.6). At the end of the day the game is about putting the round-ball through the round hole. And right now the Rockets suck in that category. That's why we care.
Man, averaging 7-8 rebounds per game is easy when you got Reefer madness jacking up 3s, hell I wouldn't be suprised if he and Yao averaged over 10 boards per game
Not sure about the 18 pts per game. I say more like 14 pts per game. Rebounds is more likely, I think he has a real good chance to get 8 a game. Yao will make it a little easier for him to rebound because he boxes out well in the paint, so if Juwon can get 6.7, I think Battier can get 7-8 rpg.
If Shane becomes a 18 8 guy then that can only mean that Yao would have seriously regressed and that's something we don't need to see.
Not necessarily. If Yao, TMac, and Battier are the true triple threat, 18-8 production from the 3rd guy does not diminish the output of the 1st option. This is of course based on the assumption Rockets' offensive will be on the rise proportionally.
Everyone except Yao's game has seen decrease over the years under JVG. Shane Battier will remain loyal to the formula.
To answer the topic's question. It's simple..No. While being a possible 2nd, 3rd option for the Grizzlies in his first year, despite it being his actual rookie year, he got little over 14ppg, 14.4ppg to be exact, in a little over 39mpg. Now take into account, he's not a statistical impact outside of defense, in terms of blocks and steals. Another account to take into consideration is Jeff Van Gund, very rarely can he emerge someone's offensive game. Prior to T-Mac, he never had a player to score more than 20ppg, now Yao falls in that class,too. Shane is about 12/5.5. Shane can rarely reach about 6.5rpg, so 8 alone is impossible. Maybe more time at PF, can get him at 6.5, though.
13-15 Points, and 7-8 boards would be great. He can hit the 3, stretch the D, and play good defense. He'd be great especially if he starts ahead of Howard.
His numbers will probably go down or stay the same as his career average. Under JVGs system who has had their numbers improve by a large margin? Lets face it. We're not the Suns who can toss in any random scrub with Nash and put up career numbers. McGrady's numbers went down when he got here. Yao's numbers have improved but I think thats more attributed to his own work ethic than anything. I do have to give JVG credit for toughening up Yao and making him a stronger, fearsome post presence instead of weak upper body individual with poor stamina but a nice outside shot. However under JVG system you can expect a slow malaise game with few shots put up, few easy buckets, and long shooting droughts.
For folks who think that Battier is going to avg 14 ppg or more, You realize that to be 14 ppg he'll need to be shooting at a 12 FGA per game clip. Where's Battier going to find 12 FGA's per game? Last year Rafer was at 11.7 FGA's and JH was at 10.7 FGA's per game (and this is with TMac and Yao out with significant time). Everyone else was 8 FGA's or below. Even the year we had Mike James he was only shooting at a 10 FGA clip. If it's a one for one replacement then Battier is only replacing 8 FGA's. So is Battier going to somehow find 4 additional FGA's by taking them for Alston or Howard (8+4 = 12 FGA's)? That means either they would have to shoot 20% less each if you take 2 shots away form each of them. I can see maybe a total of 2 shots being taken away but not 4 to give to Battier. Well increase the number of shot attempts by the entire team you say. OK, so JVG's offense is around 76 FGA's per game. If you assume that everyone is taking the same number of shots then an additional +4 FGA attempts puts us in the 80 FGA per game. Most teams shoot at around (Clippers, Mavs, Spurs, Heat, etc.) 77-78 FGA's per game. The Lakers are just at 80 while the Suns shoot a blistering 87 FGA clip. For the sake of argument let's say the Rockets want to manufacture 80 FGA per game. That comes out to a whopping 382 more shots in 82 games or in the case for the Rockets around 482 more possessions in 82 games. So where is Battier going to find 12 FGA attempts per game to avg 14ppg or more?
Let's look at it this way. If Detroit had come to you in the offseason of 1994 and offered to trade Sean Elliott for Mario Elie, would you have done it then not knowing either players' impact on their teams? Knowing what you know now, would you have done it?
