Berkman in right? The same Berkman that is at 80% (if not less) health-wise? Did you not see Berkman almost get thrown out on a passed ball when he moved from 2nd to 3rd? He has no speed, the only outfield he can play at MMP is left field with the short porch. Berkman didn't have a torn up knee last NLCS.
fine, then palmeiro; leave berkman where he is. i'd like to see lamb in there and i think garner would, too. or, if burke can play right; i have no idea. he's fast; doesn't look terribly overmatched.
Defensively, 4 things are the foundations of playing a good outfield. 1. A good initial jump on a fly ball 2. Good speed to cover ground 3. Good decision making on making throws 4. A good arm to make the throw with power and accuracy Lane probably is one of the only ones that can make this assessment... at least the best that we got. Taveras could use the jump, but his speed makes up for most of it. Berkman can barely run as of now, his diving play was made because he was halfway up towards second base. The truth is, he sort of fell on the ball. Him playing out right field would be the cause of a lot of blooping singles because he would play deep half the time to avoid triples all over the place. He has a decent arm, and is smart enough to make OK decisions, but right field is out of the question unless he's desperate. Palmiero is an average outfielder and below average as a RF. His speed is OK and he makes OK decisions. His arm power is below average for a right fielder and for a hitter's park, that's dangerous to have in MMP where the 90 feet from 2nd to 3rd place is so important. Burke? He's been a decent left fielder at MMP. Garner probably stretched it too far by saying he could be the best defensively this year. His play in game 2 proves that he's average at best at Left Field this season. His speed is there, but his jump is far from being average. He read that ball wrong. I'm not saying I could do better hands down, but as a professional outfielder, those blunders could cost you a game easily, especially with an offense like St. Louis's. Him playing the large right field would be detrimental to the team. Sure, we need scoring, but a few at bats (let's say he bats 2 for 4, which is generous since that's a .500 average) usually don't mean a thing if a few popups dropped on the Astros for singles. The reason it hurts more for the Astros is because our team is built around our starting pitching. An out that's not made could be anywhere from 1-10+ extra pitches for our starting pitcher. Regardless of what these TV media people are trying to say, our bullpen is anything but dominant. Outside of Lidge, Wheeler has not been all TOO impressive as a setup man lately. He got out of a jam against Atlanta, but he gave up the walks and hits to get into that jam. Qualls is decent, but he leaves the ball up at times. Qualls, Astaco, Rodriguez, Gallo, AND Springer in a close game would have us biting our nails to the last out. Our Starting pitching is KEY to our success, then it's the "bridge to Lidge." Anyways, Lane might be necessary, and if he bursts out of this slump, that'll be ideal for the Astros.
First of all, I love this discussion here. Topics like this are what makes baseball so great... where you don't know whether or not to trust the long term vs. the short term, mixing and matching lineups, moving guys around, overreacting to stats... its beautiful. Frankly, I wish a lot of you were around during the season to make your points... I understand the bandwagon factor, but it would have been nice to get some decent baseball talk in the dog days as well. Now to the topic at hand. First of all, there's a lot of miconception on whether or not to trust immediate results, or long-term trends when dealing with the extreme scope of the playoffs. A lot of people are pointing at Burke's gaffe in LF last night and looking at that as a reason why he shouldn't be in CF... but then a lot of people are forgetting that Willy made TWO SEASONS worth of defensive misplays on balls that should have been ROUTINE over the course of this past season. Experts in the organization (not just the BBS) know that Willy is far from an elite CF... the fact is, his instincts are all off and he relies on speed to make up for them. Sometimes he gets screwed, most of the time he recovers... and all the time, Garner replaces him with Bruntlett in CF in a close game situation (how's that for your "only true CF" on the team?). Second of all... a lot of you seem to be satisfied with Willy's numbers in the post-season thus far... and for what we ask him to do, that's fine. But, the fact remains that he has yet to drive in the runs with guys in scoring position (even Lane has at least done that twice), and he has no extra-base hits, gap power, and virtually zero plate discipline. This is a guy who we use to bunt whenever a guy's on base and less than 2 outs... and a guy we pinch-hit for when its a late-game RBI situation... what other player do you do that with?.... oh yea, the PITCHER. Its not like our lineup is knocking in runs left and right... we need as many RBI guys as possible at ALL times. So, Willy needs to be subbed defensively for late in games, and he needs to be subbed offensively for late in games... which begs the question again... WHY IS HE IN THERE? The answer is probably that he can give you a steal when you need it.... even though Molina can gun anybody out (and already has thrown out Willy multiple times this year)... but that's about it. Now, I'll admit that Lane hasn't brought it since game 3 against Atlanta (that's 3 bad games in a row). But, with the short porch in LF, and his career #'s against Morris (and the fact that Morris is prone to the long ball), there is at least the POSSIBILITY of him going deep. Willy does not give you that possibility. Lane also has our only plus arm in the OF... he's playing RF... end of story. And that brings us to Mr. Burke. The guy is hot right now... but a lot of you guys say "where has that been all season?" as a reason to why he shouldn't play right now. But, you also have to remember that Burke's track record is a guy who has succeeded at every level... a guy who hits doubles, triples, and has the occasional HR... and provides solid defense and good speed. It looks like he's currently living up to his career stats. Willy (who btw, never played above AA... unlike Burke) has a career that's been known for a high average, low OBP, zero XBHits, and no walks.... it also seems like he's living up to his career stats as well. In the end, Garner is going to leave Burke on the bench... so all this talking is useless... I'm just making the case that Burke can (and probably is already) be a better hitter in this lineup than Willy Taveras, and in the end Willy's additions to this offense are not as great as they may be percieved to be.
Nice Post on Willy. I agree that his jump to fly balls is anything but satisfying. The thing about Willy is when he DOES get on base, he really does change the perspective of the pitcher. I would love to have Burke playing, which makes me want the Astros to make the WS even more. Willy is usually replaced in a double switch or when he's replaced in an at bat. Bruntlett's been great at CF all season, which is also great. However, Willy's there because he provides some speed and hustle that's been lacking in the outfield. I wish he could drive in a run or hit something out of the infield with men in scoring position. Even more, I think Taveras should not be hitting second. Leadoff or somewhere at the bottom and have Burke (when he's playing) batting second. Willy just doesn't generate enough contact and relies on his speed a lot. But as much as I agree with the posts, I still firmly believe that Willy's speed will make some game saving grabs before the playoffs are over. Nice Post overall.
why are you comparing taveras to lane? lane bats fifth; he's supposed to drive in runs. taveras is supposed to set the table for guys like lane. if taveras is your standard for excusing lane's no-show... it speaks volumes of just how awful lane has been. taveras doesn't need to apologize for his performance. he's lifted late in games for the same reason berkman gets lifted; situations change and call for a different approach.
yep, he's a whopping 2 for 5 against him this year. btw, that's two more hits... in fact, i think it's two more swings than he has in this series so far.
He also hit a huge 2 run HR in our pennant chase in September of Morris... were you watching that game, or have you only been paying attention to the short term?
the sample size against pitchers at this point is a little weak. biggio was 0-14 against Mulder going into last night's game, i believe. didn't matter. now when you start talking about someone like Lidge over 30 innings or something like that...that's a bit more legit. but 2/5 doesn't mean much.
easy, Nick. his point is well-taken. it's a sample size of 5 AB's. i pray that Garner isn't using that to determine who is and isn't starting.
In an ideal lineup, Taveras would be just fine... but this isn't an ideal lineup. We need RBI guys all over the place... we NEEDED Biggio to hit 26 HR's this year (and we've never asked that from him in all of his 17 years). Willy has had multiple opportunities to drive in runs throughout the playoffs (and all season, for that matter)... and it hasn't happend. He also doesn't get on base enough to "set the table"... and right now, he's there simply to bunt. Lane hasn't shown up the first two games... had a couple of RBI's the series before... and was our second-best power hitter throughout the second half of the season. I'm still giving him a chance because I do know what he's capable of.
I also see guys writing off Lane and supporting Taveras for just their playoff performances thus far... that is a similiar small sample size also. The bottom line... Lane is a better combo of hitter/fielder than we can get at RF from anybody else. If we're simply living in the short term, Adam Everett is batting .375 for the NLCS... why are we ripping on him?
wow, i can't believe all the lane apologists on this board. he has been A-W-F-U-L. here are his POSTSEASON numbers, the only ones that matter right now: .167 with 3 RBI, 12 LOB and 6 K in 24 AB. he's 0'fer against the cards so far. if this were last year, with beltran, kent and bagwell, you could bury lane - no prob. but he's hitting fifth! this team needs him to pick up runs. i don't care what he did one night back in september. burke is hot; lamb, too, has had a decent, albeit limited, postseason. you play for the short term; you go with the hot hand. it's not like lane has a track record of greatness. he's had one relatively OK season in which he was streaky. right now, he's cold; he needs to see pine. not rooting against him, but this team can't afford a slumping ensberg and lane. if burke is hot, he needs to play; outfield positions be damned.
Do we try and sign burk to a 100 million dollar contract since he is having a monster postseason like Carlo$ Beltran. lol
2 contradicting reasons. The sample size of just the NLCS is so small it doesn't mean a thing. and... it's always about what is done lately. Everett couldn't score Burke from 3rd and keeps trying to pull the ball for some reason. Personally, I wish he could regain the hustling for ground ball form that made him a nice 2 hole hitter for a good part of last year's season.
I know its all about what's been done lately.... that's why there's 150 new posters in here compared to what's gone on during the season. Everybody at ESPN picks the Astros before the series... goes back to the Cardinals after game 1.... and now are all back on the Astros bandwagon again after last night. The same thing happens everywhere... its like 6 months of baseball don't exist. I'm also fine with Burke staying on the bench (I am not expecting him to continue this onslaught... but I do still feel he's a better option than Willy), but I'm not fine with putting out a lineup of Burke AND Willy T. Willy, Everett, and Ausmus (despite his legend status) are still relatively easy outs... and Burke, despite his hotness, still hasn't proved he's a legit HR threat throughout his career. You can't have almost half your lineup without the threat of a guy to take you deep... Lane still does that despite his numbers thus far.
riiiiiight... among the regulars, taveras is second on the team in OBP in the postseason (care to guess who's last?) and second overall in hits with 7 (only berkman and biggio, with 8, have more). taveras has actually stepped his game up this october. again, these are short series where right now is crucial. not september. do you? over the course of a pretty sporadic season you're going to annoit lane "mr. reliable" and pin your playoff hopes on him snapping out of it, huh? hopefully, you're not phil garner.
I think we need to continue to use Burke like we have during the first 6 games of the playoffs... when we can. When we face righties we need Lamb and/or Palmeiro in the game, and when we face lefties, it is all Burke all the time. Burke is great to have off the bench when he's not starting and vice versa for Lamb and Palmy. If it ain't broke, don't fix it... and Garner won't.
No... I'm not... but I would also not be the one who put this lineup out there for a NLCS game: Biggio Taveras Berkman Ensberg Burke Everett Ausmus Pitcher. Also, you're overreacting big-time right now. Calm down... relax... and realize that baseball will drive you crazy from the game-to-game, week-to-week, month-to-month inconsistency. Watching games for the entire season helps you rationalize these situations much better... and helps you avoid the kneejerk reactions that the typical playoffs-only baseball viewer likes to propose. Also, I call Lane's season after the all-star break anything but sporadic... he was probably the second most consistent behind Berkman.
