Unless it is a healed tear.... the films could show evidence of that. Really at this point it doesn't matter. He has gone from #1 last year all the way down to probably the mid 20's.... lost a year of crucial development and lost a year of being closer to free agency. Well played.
Aiken gambled on himself. He probably thought the better of things. Afterall he went on to pitch at the begining of the season before leaving early with an injury. Which required Tommy John surgery. From the reports, he was training real hard and was hoping to go near the top of the draft again. Reprts were he was throwing harder than ever. Now he is going to hope he gets drafted somewhere in the first round. Because chances are he will have to wait a bit longer than that. He will probably have to settle for less than the 5 million the Astros offered, probably even less than the 3.5 million astros offered to keep the protected pick the following Year.
Nope.... If other teams dont take him before us, with all his talent, it shows his value has plummeted to a lower round fly by pick. Poor guy, from shinning star studded draft pick to a guy who needs to remake his value while injured. There are even concerns if he will be able to pitch again after the surgery. it sounds like it was not your routine Tommy John surgery. Who here would give a million dollars to someone because they seemed like a nice guy?
I can't remember how many times it's been said, but Brady Aiken did not sign the form that permits the Astros to draft him again.
Well, a healed tear isn't really a tear... and I doubt that was the case as we saw how he pitched last year, and then what happened this year with an actual tear. If he had had a previous tear, it would have been reflected in the pitching at some point. I would stick with the original narrative... it was a small, almost non-existent UCL... and that scared them off enough to lower their offer (but not completely pull it due to the other players offers that were tied to him signing). This approach would also make sense as to why there were potential complications with the surgery... if he had a "normal" UCL, just torn and routinely repaired, I'm not so sure teams would shy away from that nor would the player withhold medical information.
Marshall ended up not going to LSU. I think he went the route of Nix and Aiken by going to a JUCO, so I believe he is eligible.
There's a pretty good chance the Astros could have called all of them out on their "amateur eligibility", which may have played a role in the decision making.
I don't think that would have been a problem for Marshall (Nix obviously had a problem, and Aiken likely would have too). I think he just decided he was ready to sign a contract and didn't want to wait 3 years.
It's a telling sign that Nix ended up nixing his agent a few month ago. Me just speculating, maybe he finally realized the Astros did have a valid concern after the Astros concerns were proven correct. But if Nix did not sign the form that allowed the Astros to sign him, well its all a moot point now. However what the Astros pitching staff is doing with the talent should make any prospect want to work with them. Yeah, yeah... there is the Mark Appel side show, but I firmly think that they are trying to teach Appel how to pitch a game plan, more so than they need to work on his pitches. They are tinkering on his approach, not his pitches. Everywhere I read, they say his stuff is sharp and good. I'd imagine, it would be no different than if you went into a chess match with 10 queens, but you were playing against a chess master with nothing but pawns. Appel might take a year longer, but he should be a middle to top of the rotation guy....
Just is unfortunate that a 4 year college starter who was the favorite to be #1 overall not just once but two years in a row... is now more of a "project". Nobody is giving up on him... but the chances for gauranteed future MLB success get less and less with each setback (its a hard road, regardless of the "stuff"... hence why its so rewarding when former high draft picks like LMJ make it).
We're not really sure how far along they were with Marshall... out of the three, he did the "best" job of not saying anything as even a smidgen of a "hush-hush" agreement in place would have put the college eligibility in question. Anybody know if he's projected to get close to his $1.5 million asking price?
So it's okay to say that he has a short UCL...but cant say there is a tear? That makes no sense. Then the UCL discussion would have violated HIPPA and should never have been mentioned in the first place.
Astros have said nothing that has been directly or even indirectly attributed to them. Aiken's camp has been controlling the information regarding his injury and HIPPA doesn't apply to them.
I am not going to argue about it because it really doesn't matter if it was just a small UCL or a tear... he is not going to be an Astro and at this point it looks like the Astros made the right call. Having said that, you can certainly have a partial tear and pitch through it, and it is possible to not even know there is an issue depending of the degree of tear. I know the right thing to say is I hope Aiken has a long and fruitful career, but I don't really care.... his "letter" to the press was arrogant and really unnecessary... I would rather see someone else have success.
The issue with Aiken is really too bad, because the Astros would have gotten 3 of the top 50-55 players in the draft with Aiken, Nix and Marshall. Marshall was seen as a top 40-50 prospect but fell because of an asking price of nearly $2,000,000. Marshall was pitching out of a solid JUCO in Florida the last I saw, and his secondary pitches were supposedly better. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Astros draft him again (assuming he is agreeable) in the middle to late rounds, assuming they can scrounge up the $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 he is asking for. Aiken we know never signed the paperwork for the Astros to draft him, and I suspect he will be off the board when the Astros use the compensatory pick late in the first round. Everyone keeps saying Jacob Nix didn't sign the proper paperwork, I don't know if he did or didn't. I will say that he fired Casey Close, which may be telling.
