Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks agree on Rajon Rondo trade

His PER is 15.09 and his TS is 42% plus he's injury prone...did we really want this guy?

 

PER is a stat made to calculate OFFENSE. Rondo was never a star on Offense.

 

Let us not downplay Rondo's championship experience, his triple double potential and his big hands that can do the Rondo shake.

Well he is also injury prone, has issues with coaches and players.

There is always a downside but he has abilities. He is a talent.

 

I don't think it is a myth completely.

People seriously underrate how important team defense is. When he was playing with KG and Thibs was the Defensive coach...no way anyone on that team plays poor defense for too long.

Just look at guys who come and go from Chicago...or any thibs coached team. Thibs got Boozer playing acceptable defense.

It's about the team, team principles, not having too many holes in your defense.

A big reason Harden is a better defender is because of Ariza. Ariza is a great team defender. This is as opposed to Parsons and how many times Harden was between Lin and Parsons playing perimeter D? We got rid of those holes on defense, it's not exactly clear that Harden is this great defender now. He still gets blown past at times, he still has his bad moments....but...Bev, Dwight, Ariza, even Papa from what I've seen can make up for that.

Point is. This isn't that Celtics team. They don't have KG. They got Chandler (Tyson that is) but they still have some very poor perimeter defenders. He can't guard all of the PG/SG/SF. I doubt we are going to be seeing elite defender Rondo because that team just doesn't have elite defense mindset ingrained into them.

Besides...a PG playing defense isn't going to suddenly improve your entire defense. He's a good man defender (or was before the injuries) great even, quick hands, shows the will to defend all that...but he's still a PG.

I think Bev is one of the best defenders at his position, but if you put him on the Lakers that's not going to make them suddenly defensive monsters. When the team plays great defense as a whole, then and only then do individual defenders shine. It's just like last year, we had a great defender at PG and at Center...did nothing for our defense.

So yeah, people thinking that Rondo is going to just improve their defense suddenly it just doesn't work like that. There has to be a mentality throughout the team that defense comes first. That they can win by getting stops.

 

Rondo has played 78, 77, 80, 81, 68 , 53 (lockout season), 38, 30 games in so far during his career and 22 games this season. He had one major injury in over 8 years which caused him to miss some games at the end of one and the beginning of the next season. But one injury can happen to every athlete during 8 years, thats not "being injury prone". Its funny how many wanted Rondo to join the Rockets and now that he's a Mav he's suddenly a poor player and injury prone... He's a good addition to their team, probably not enough to make them an instant contender but it helps them and would've helped almost any team.

 

Maybe it is not just the injury.... he wasn't his dominant self for quite some while

or he might not be the player he once was

 

A 38-year old Kidd also played solid defense on Wade in his prime in the 2011 finals. In Rondo, Ellis, and Parsons, Dallas feature an entire perimeter of inferior defenders than James Harden. Lillard-Matthews-Batum will chew them up without too much difficulty, whereas Durant-Westbrook and Splash Bros will simply eat them up for lunch.

 

No. We didn't. Which is exactly why we didn't get him.

 

It doesn't matter when the Mavs are as deep as they are. Rondo won't do that much heavy lifting.

 

The Mavs aren't deep. They have a nice starting lineup though.

 

Rondo's best skill is passing which is an offensive skill. Defensively, Rondo has been below average to bad for the last couple of years.

Last season, opposing PGs shot an eFG% of 52.9% when guarded by Rondo. To put that in perspective, only 3 starting PGs (Curry, Chalmers and Bledsoe) in the NBA shot an eFG% over 52% last season. In the prior season, opponents had an eFG% of 50.5% when guarded by Rondo.

When Rondo was on the court last season the Celtics allowed and eFG% of 54.4%. When he was off the court the opponents eFG% was 49.3%.

The easy explanation is that Rondo didn't have good defenders behind him in Boston but Avery Bradley was great defensively with the same defenders.

While Rondo never was a great shooter, he still use to put up FG% in the 47% to 50% range. Over the last two seasons he's down to right at 40%. Liikewise, he usually shot FTs in the 60% range but this year he's shooting 33%.

In his best days in Boston Rondo's passing and defense were able to offset his shooting skills. If his defense is no longer elite and his shooting skills aren't up to his best days then even his passing skills don't offset those things.

Can Rondo return to the level that he was at in his best days in Boston? Nobody knows.

Was it worth the risk for Dallas? Yes, because there's a chance that he can return to that level and that would give them a chance at making a run in the playoffs. Without making the deal, they really had no chance (as has been demonstrated this year by their inability to beat good teams).

Is there risk for Dallas? Yes there is. In order for Rondo to be effective he has to have the ball in his hands. That will change the way Dallas plays. Dallas' offense was based on ball movement and them being able to attack you with multiple players. If Rondo becomes ball dominant then they are much more predictable to guard. If Rondo isn't ball dominant then there's really no reason to have him on the floor.

Bottom line is that Rondo is a huge question mark at this point in his career and that's why there was no market for him. Teams simply weren't going to offer a lot for him at his current level of play and knowing that he'll be looking for a max deal in the offseason.

As I said before, it was a good risk for Dallas because it at least gives them a chance and the only real cost to them was losing Brandon Wright.

It will be interesting to see how Dallas fares with a backcourt tandem that shoot 30% and 25% from behind the arc. Is Rondo going to shutdown Harden, Westbrook, CP3, Curry or Lillard ? Probably not, that's been Avery Bradley's job over the last couple of years.

 

I must admit that i do not know a lot about rondo. But it will be interesting seeing him match up with harden three more times this year.

 

I don't believe that the "great defender" myth is a reference to Rondo making Dallas' defense better but rather refers to the fact that Rondo hasn't been a great defender in several years.

You are correct in what you say about team defense but from an individual perspective Rondo has actually been below average for a couple of years now. Avery Bradley has been able to play exceptional defense while playing with the same supporting cast as Rondo so I don't think it's a team defense thing.

Rondo's defense has fallen off, there's really no arguing that. The question is whether it's a decline is abilities or lack of effort. The answer to that is what will end up determining the outcome of this trade for Dallas. If he can return to something close to his best days then it's a good deal. If he continues to play defense has he has the last couple of years then it will likely be a failure.

 

Rondo's dropped off defensively; I'm not even sure he's a better defender than Jameer. Looking at opponent's FG% while being defended by Rondo or Nelson, opponents are shooting a gasping 50% while defended by Rondo but 44.3% while defended by Jameer. Even if adjusted for opponent's usual FG%, there's still a 3.4% diff between them in Jameer's favor. You might think Rondo's individual defensive stats are bad because he's on a bad defensive team and that will be different in Dallas, but Boston's defensive rating (15th in the league) is actually slightly better than Dallas' (20th in the league).

He's also never led a good NBA offense even during the Big Three days. The last time Boston was better than league average on offense was six years ago, when Ray and Pierce had as much or more offensive responsibility as Rajon. Every offense Rondo has really led has been below average. The problem is you are playing 4 on 5 with Rondo against good teams that recognize he can't shoot. Rondo relies on pick & roll play, and if a team can defend that Rondo's value significantly depreciates.

Also the Mavs are putting all their eggs in Tyson Chandler's basket. Overall you're giving all your starting 5 more minutes than usual because their bench sucks now.

 

Case against Rondo by Grantland:

The cost is significant. The deal is riskier for the Mavs than for the Celtics, who found a cold market for a 28-year-old recovering from an ACL tear on an expiring contract. Brandan Wright has been massively important as Chandler’s understudy in the Mavs’ pick-and-roll alley-oop show. His ability to finish with dunks, floaters, and hooks frees Dirk Nowitzki to space the floor as a spot-up shooter and secondary option. Wright probably tops out as a neutral presence on defense, but he’s stiffened his post-up work and provides more rim protection today than he did two years ago.

The Mavs offense lives on ball movement and spacing; Monta Ellis has thrived as the lead ball handler, but he’s also a killer passer, and the Mavs are at their best when they’re pinging the ball to shooters dotting the perimeter. Rondo is a non-shooter, and as a result, he has almost always had the ball in Boston.

The Mavs were quietly comfortable parting with Shawn Marion in the offseason because they were sick of watching the Matrix’s man clog the paint while he lurked in no-man’s-land along the baseline. That’s exactly where Rondo likes to hide when he doesn’t have the ball. And when he’s had it, at least in Boston, he has liked to dribble it — around one screen, then another, then under the hoop and around the other end. That would not jibe well with the Mavs’ sharing.

Rondo has never been the alpha dog on a good NBA offense. The C’s have scored at a worse rate with Rondo on the floor for three years running, and they were generally mediocre even at their championship peak. He’s shooting 41 percent this season and a laughable 12-of-36 from the foul line. His turnovers are through the roof, and a disturbing number of them have been unforced. Rondo has coughed up the ball on 32 percent of the pick-and-rolls he has finished this season, the worst rate among all 85 players who have run at least 50 such plays, per Synergy Sports. Dead stinking last.

There is very little evidence beyond inflated assist totals that the present-day version of Rondo is a helpful player — on either end. Dallas gave up real things for an overrated defender who wouldn’t seem able to improve upon an offense already challenging league records. Rondo will generate some steals and offensive rebounds, but the Mavs are already quite good at getting both of those things.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/rajon-rondo-trade-dallas-mavericks/

 

I do agree that it is not unreasonable for Dallas to get him. Before the trade, they were a second tier team in the West. They knew that their chances of reaching the Finals were not very good. So they had to gamble.

I am not sure if it is low risk. I'd say it's kind of a high risk-high reward gamble. Rondo could return to his championship level and propel them to first tier. The trade could also make them worse and drop them to the playoff fringe.

 

Lowe wrote an amazing piece here. Very level headed and rational. Great read.

 

I have not seen the Celtics play many games admittedly as I often can't get myself to watch games between two random Eastern conference teams.

I'm sure his defense as a individual has really dropped off, it is true that Avery Bradley has been their prime perimeter defender on guards though so yeah.

But you are 100% right in your previous post. This is a risk they had to take because they were not looking too good against other west playoff teams.

 

Everything I've said for a few days now.

 

The Case for the Trade

We know Rondo has an extra gear when he gives a crap. The Mavs are betting that Playoff Rondo is still in there somewhere, waiting to be unleashed. “This will be a Chauncey Billups–to–Denver–level addition,” one league executive says. Playoff Rondo could make a dramatic impact on defense for Dallas as it navigates through Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, and the rest. Even a semi-comatose Rondo contemplating his next Connect Four session is an upgrade on that end over Nelson, J.J. Barea, and Raymond Felton.

His size matters for a team with so many point guards. The Celtics already had Rondo guarding some wing players, which allowed them to sic Bradley on opposing point guards. Rondo has the length and tenacity for it; who can forget him going toe-to-toe with LeBron James for a few precious playoff possessions?

He can play next to Barea and Devin Harris, and the Rondo-Harris combination offers decent size on hybrid bench units — perhaps even with Ellis as the nominal small forward in super-small lineups.

The fit on offense will be awkward, and Dallas cannot reasonably expect to improve much overall on that end. The shooting downgrade from Nelson to Rondo will hurt. The Mavs withstood the loss of Jose Calderon’s shooting, but for all of their offensive brilliance, Dallas is a so-so shooting team beyond the transcendent Nowitzki. Can it absorb another downgrade? You never know which tap at the rock will be the one that breaks it apart.

But the Mavs are 0-5 against incumbent Western Conference playoff teams, and they’ve laid some stinky eggs on offense in those five losses. They are murdering the dregs and stalling out, at least in relative terms, against the teams they’ll need to beat to make a Finals run. Nelson can drain open 3s, but teams aren’t contorting their defenses in fear of his shooting. He can’t finish at the rim — he’s shooting just 38 percent near the basket, per Basketball-Reference.com — and he’s made fewer foul shots than Rondo.

He’s just not a dynamic player. He’s not a rim attacker. Rondo is a speed demon shooting better than 57 percent near the basket. Once in the paint, he has the dexterity and vision to find anyone, anywhere. None of the other Dallas point guards, including Nelson, is in Rondo’s universe as a passer.

Rondo has the potential to give Dallas another gear it appears to need against the best teams. He can’t shoot, but he’s a smart player, and the Mavs are wagering on their collective IQ here. Ellis was a chucking bust until Rick Carlisle partnered him with Nowitzki, and now Chandler, and freed him to attack the basket at will.

Rondo loves to hold the ball, but he’s obviously unselfish, and under Brad Stevens he’s shown that he’s happy to pepper the thing around to spot-up shooters stationed along the 3-point arc.1 He’s perfectly capable of bobbing around an Ellis-Chandler pick-and-roll, catching a kickout pass, and going right into a secondary driving action without pausing to pound the ball. The Rondo-Nowitzki pick-and-pop is going to kill people. Carlisle, Rondo, and the rest of this veteran cast will figure out how to integrate him without siphoning their pass-and-drive mojo.

There will be times when the Mavs feel a spacing crunch, but that issue can only be so serious as long as Nowitzki is on the floor. Great shooting from a big man is worth more than great shooting elsewhere, since Nowitzki drags an opposing big — a potential rim protector — away from the basket while setting a flurry of picks.

Wright was valuable in Dallas, but the Mavs couldn’t protect the defensive glass when he was on the floor, and his trade value will never be higher than it is today. Carlisle rarely played Wright and Chandler together, so as good as Wright is, he was going to be a low-minutes guy in the postseason. A Chandler injury is a disaster now, with no viable backup, but it was going to be a disaster regardless.