[Bleacher Report] The Final Stretch: Sizing Up The Western Conference Playoff Race

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/11787-NBA-Dallas_Mavericks-Houston_Rockets-New_Orleans_Hornets-The_Final_Stretch_Sizing_Up_The_Western_Conference_Playoff_Race

The last stretch of the season is upon us, and the stakes have never been higher in the Western Conference. With nine teams fighting tooth and nail for those eight sacred playoff spots, the final 20 games is going to unfold like a roller coaster when the tension mounts and finally tips over the edge into a thrilling rush of twists and turns.


One thing is already apparent, with so many good teams in the west, one club is destined to be ravaged with disappointment. So which is going to be the odd team out? Let’s take a look at the final stretch of the regular season:



San Antonio Spurs (41-17) Momentum - UP

It’s that time of the year again, yes springtime is in flutter – and so are the silver and black. The Spurs are finally pulling it together to make yet another clutch performance at the end of the season, which has been characteristic of the club for the last few seasons. Manu Ginobili is looking stellar in his new starting role, and with Tony Parker back on the floor, and Tim Duncan…well, being Tim Duncan, the Spurs are looking good for another deep run this post season.

San Antonio will probably not be able to hold onto the top seed due to their rough schedule leading into the final week. Among the challenges are 15 games against opponents better than .500, nine of which are on the road, and six consecutive game sets (second highest among west contenders). Good news for the Spurs is they have constructed a solid 8-3 record in the second game of back-to-back sets, despite their road record being…middle-of-the-road. Don’t pay attention to critics trashing the Spurs for losing their edge, or “getting old”, just remember they were saying the same thing last year. Look for them to sew up the second seed in the west.



Los Angeles Lakers (42-18) Momentum – UP

What can we possibly say about the Lakers? They are simply dominating this season, and should wrap up the number one playoff seed by the time the regular season comes to a close. Kobe Bryant has played unselfish basketball, and is very likely to be recognized as the league MVP this year, bad pinkie and all. Pau Gasol has already proven to be a great pickup, and when Andrew Bynum hits the floor again this team will be scary. There are no more Gary Payton or Karl Malone gimmicks this year, just a solid team led by the most prolific scorer in the league.

LA is going to be an extremely tough team to keep up with in the playoffs, and after all the trades in the west, this could be the year for LA. It will be interesting to watch how they fare in their upcoming road trip where they will face New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, and Utah in the same journey. If somehow the Lakers escaped unscathed, it will be a loud statement that resonates throughout the Western Conference.



New Orleans Hornets (40-19) Momentum - DOWN



What a surprising and exciting year for the city of New Orleans and the Hornets. Who knew Chris Paul could be THIS good? Playing host to the All-Star game, and then having your team go out and play so well every night has stirred things up in the Big Easy, and that success is becoming contagious this year. Chris Paul is an MVP candidate, and watching how he moves on the court who wouldn’t doubt that in the end of his career he will be considered one of the greatest point guards to play the game?



Okay maybe a little premature to speculate on his career success, but the Hornets are definitely going to make the playoffs this year, and have all the elements in place to win a series. New Orleans has seven back-to-back game sets remaining on their schedule (the most of any contender), and 13 games on the road. Luckily for them, they are better on the road than they are at home, and likewise have the best combined record of 1st and 2nd back-to-back games of all the contenders. Add the fact that more than half of their remaining games are against Eastern Conference teams, and New Orleans is in a good position to retain a high playoff seed.



Utah Jazz (39-22) Momentum – STATIC

Funny how a guy like Kyle Korver can change the fortunes of a team for the better, and that is exactly what happened in Utah. Let’s not forget the kind of intangibles an under-appreciated Deron Williams brings to the table either, making the Paul Millsaps of the world look like hall-of-fame material. Utah is one of those teams that may not dazzle with star-power, but sure gets it done when it needs to. Despite pre-Korver struggles early in the season, Utah has positioned itself at the top of the Northwest division, three games ahead of Denver.



The remaining schedule for the Jazz is in their favor with only 12 games against opponents over .500, and four back-to-back game sets. It’s still very possible that they could fall to the eighth seed if they lose ground to Denver, especially with several head-to-head match-ups left to play, but the Jazz have been tough in the last month and they won’t give it up that easy.





Houston Rockets (39-20) Momentum – UP



Yao-zers! Surely Rockets fans were sweating a little when it was announced that Yao Ming would be out the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his foot, but against all odds the team has responded well and continues its hot streak. T-Mac is playing good ball, and is actually healthy for once. Houston also has the advantage of a deep and talented bench including guys like Carl Landry, Luther Head, and newly acquired Gerald Green and Bobby Jackson. Not to mention starters such as Luis Scola and Shane Battier having great seasons already.



The real question is how long can they keep it going? Dikembe Mutombo is the fill-in center for Yao, and although he can still be a presence down low, he is not nearly as productive grabbing boards and scoring. But don’t point the finger at Mutombo, the Rockets will inevitably cool off and drop a few games, but don’t expect them to fall off the map just yet.



Phoenix Suns (39-20) Momentum – DOWN

Shaq has put the Suns in slow motion, and what once was a solid playoff-ready team, is now a 7 foot 1 question mark. There are a lot of excuses being made around Phoenix, maybe the team is still adjusting for the big cactus, or maybe he just needs a few more practices to get in shape, but the bottom line is that the Suns miss Shawn Marion. At this point in the season, there is little room for struggle, and with a record of 39-20, the Suns may be facing a rare case of playoff uncertainty being that they hold the sixth seed by only a few games with much season still left to play.



Shaquille O’Neal may have been meant to improve their toughness in the playoffs, but in the regular season it’s apparent that they still need the run-n-gun Suns to win games. Of all the contenders, Phoenix has the most games against .500+ teams remaining, and 19 of their remaining games are against Western Conference foes. Want to hear another scary number? The Suns’ record against Western Conference teams is 17-16; barely .515 is not going to get it done.



Dallas Mavericks (39-22) Momentum – DOWN

Before the Jason Kidd trade, Dallas was not living up to expectations, and since then it cannot be said with any more certainty just what the Mavs are capable of this season. First of all, Devin Harris was a keeper. Not only are his stats better than modern day Kidd, but he also has tremendous upside. Dallas is in a position where they have had a taste of success, and hold great expectations, but perhaps are a little blinded by ambition. It’s not that Kidd has performed badly in a Mavericks’ jersey, it’s just that the Mavs didn’t need a change. What the Mavs need is chemistry and clutch performances.



Consider that Dallas is a mere .500 team since the acquisition of Kidd, and suddenly that good 'ol Texas pride looks a little shaky at best. To make matters worse, the Mavs have to deal with the Golden boys breathing down their necks from the eighth playoff spot. Would it not be ironic to watch the Warriors snatch the final playoff spot giving the Mavericks another early departure? If they do not start making a push, Dallas could experience a case of déjà vu.



Golden State Warriors (36-22) Momentum – STATIC

If anything can be said about the Warriors, it’s that they are consistently inconsistent, and most Warriors fans can accept that. Sure they have not had a long winning streak since November….but they have also not lost more than two games in a row since the second week of the season. The result is a team that has developed a balance and slowly positioned itself as the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Baron Davis is having an all-star caliber season (despite the unfortunate voter turnout), and with Stephen Jackson back, Monta Ellis playing out of his mind of recent, and rookie Brandon Wright making Chris Mullin look like a genius, the Warriors won’t be surprising anyone this year if they make a little playoff noise.



The problem is getting there. Right now they hold the eighth spot over Denver, but the remaining schedule for the team is certainly no cake walk. With 6 sets of back-to-back games, 14 games on the road, and 8 of those against teams with records better than .500, the Warriors have quite a challenge ahead of them. Looking at the remaining schedule, they are the team with the worst chance of holding a playoff spot. If Golden State does manage to hold on, it will be by making their own destiny.



Denver Nuggets (35-24) Momentum - DOWN

Life in the mile high city for the Denver Nuggets is bittersweet at this point in the season. The Nuggets are on pace to have one of the top-five seasons in franchise history record wise, and yet there is nothing but frustration and the prospect of an early summer looming large in Denver. A team littered with big names like Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, and Kenyon Martin comes with great expectations, which is exactly why there is so much pressure on this squad to win this year.



Clearly this team has the talent to beat anyone in the league, but there are several problems that have kept them from achieving their true potential. Namely their ability to play defense has proved to be the most glaring weakness, with some nights of dominance, and others of plain laziness. Perhaps the lack of defensive focus stems from coach George Karl (who has employed a carefree approach to coaching in lieu of his fiery Seattle days), or the ambivalent nature of leadership on the team. Either way the Denver Nuggets may find themselves on the outside looking in if they do not start playing with a passion to win every night. Recent losses have put them in a tough spot in the Western conference, and in order to climb into a playoff spot they need to put together a winning streak of more than three games.





So who's in?



After reviewing the statistics for the final stretch of the season, and comparing them with each team's performance to date, it can be said that some teams should be sweating a little more than others. It's easy to discount teams like the Nuggets or the Warriors, but with the record disparity as miniscule as it is, a lot can happen over the course of 20 games.



Shoe-Ins



Los Angeles Lakers

San Antonio Spurs

New Orleans Hornets

Utah Jazz



Sure bets



Houston Rockets



Time to Sweat



Phoenix Suns

Dallas Mavericks

Golden State Warriors

Denver Nuggets





Surprised? No Kidding.

Whoever gets in this year, fans are sure of one thing: it will be a spectacular show.

 

If you click the link above you will see a table for the remaining games split. I thought that was informative. The rest is nothing new.

 

I agree with you. I do not believe the Lakers hype. But looking at their remaining soft schedule, I think they will get the #1 seed.

 

While the Hornets has been inconsistent lately and have a somewhat tough schedule remaining, I can not see the Nuggets passing them up as they have equally hard schedule and are 5 games below the Hornets.

 

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  It is the hype that comes from a temporary success in the standings, where there is little that separates seeds #1 through #7. Any little success that a big market like LA or NY has, will generate a hype.
  
  We certainly did not see much hype about New Orleans when there were atop the WC.